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How capitalism will keep AI from ruining everything
Some jobs are expected to become obsolete while new jobs are created. And the improved productivity is expected to bolster margins and drive profit growth for companies, which is good news for the stock market.
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Why it may not be fair to say Fed made inflation 'mistake'
While high inflation is a headache for consumers, at least some of it was the result of newly employed people finally being able to afford to purchase goods and services.
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The first question to ask when a markets expert speaks
Unfortunately, trading tips and investment advice come with a lot of the same jargon that make it easy to confuse the two if you’re not paying careful attention.
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The state of the American consumer in a single quote
Every once in a while, we’ll get a single anecdote that succinctly reflects a much bigger story in the economy.
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The Sahm rule and the economy's 'statistical regularities'
“A statistical regularity is what I call it,” Powell said on Wednesday. “It's not like an economic rule, where it's telling you something must happen.” Claudia Sahm, the economist whom the indicator is named after, would agree.
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'Get on with it': Why the Fed's first rate cut wouldn't be that big of a deal
Inflation metrics have been coming down for two years and are now at levels that are just a rounding error away from the Fed’s 2% target rate.
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Is a U.S. president from one political party better for the stock market? It's not that simple.
History suggests that a U.S. president’s political slant may not be as important for stock market performance as you might assume.
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The bottom line is the bottom line
Analysts agree the prospects for earnings are looking favorable for stocks.
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The simplest explanation for market movements isn't always the most complete one
It’s possible higher interest rates have indeed been a tailwind — not a headwind — for the economy.
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The Oracle of Omaha warns about AI: What Buffett said at Berkshire
Warren Buffett told Berkshire Hathaway shareholders that he has mixed feelings about artificial intelligence — in a tone he's expressed before.
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Reminder that economic data can be like a 'full-on Monet'
From a distance, patterns and trends become clear. But seen up close economic data is a mess.
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The inverted yield curve and the Leading Economic Index have failed as recession predictors
While the inverted yield curve may have a good track record of predicting recessions, it’s not very precise in predicting when recessions will start.
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Here are the upside risks to watch
In the markets and the economy, things rarely unfold exactly as expected. Often they’re better than expected. Sometimes they’re far worse. In the same way that it’s helpful for investors to be mentally prepared for bad news and market volatility, it’s smart to balance that by also understanding what could go right.
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Revisiting Warren Buffett's greatest trade – switching philosophies
Buffett’s greatest trade didn’t involve any single financial security. Rather, I’d say his greatest trade was selling "cigar butt" investing and buying the investing philosophy championed by his right-hand man.
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Too early to call impact of layoffs on macro economy
The strength of the stock market seems in conflict with the plethora of news headlines on companies announcing layoffs.
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Recession worries recede
Coming into 2024, Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale were among a handful of banks whose economists were calling for a recession in 2024. Last week, they both pulled that call.
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Viewing the market through relatives and absolutes
Various aspects of the markets and the economy can be worse and good, simultaneously. They can also be both better and bad.
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Whether or not the Fed cuts rates is not the right question
As far as whether or not the Fed actually pivots and begins to cut rates, that's really not the right question. The question should be, "If they don't cut, then why are they not cutting as they suggested in their dot plots?"
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Stock market all-time highs: The long game remains undefeated
Stocks made record highs last week, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.2% to close at 4,839.81. The index is now up 1.5% year to date and up 35.3% from its October 12, 2022 closing low of 3,577.03.
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4 different ways of looking at the exact same economy
Often times, those discussing what’s driving the stock market will appear in conflict with those discussing what’s driving the economy. And sometimes, those discussing what’s driving the economy will appear in conflict with each other.