Our 2019 Oscar predictions in every category
When it comes to the 2019 Academy Awards, the drama wasn’t just on the big screen. From the ill-advised introduction of the Best Popular Film category to the Kevin Hart debacle to the since-reneged decisions to cut four categories from the live broadcast, feature only two of the Best Original Song performances and not include last year’s acting winners as presenters (so exhausted, are we missing anything?), the gaffes have been plentiful.
It remains to be seen how show producers will pull off the Oscars’ first hostless iteration since 1989. But thankfully there’s a bit of suspense left when it comes to, you know, the actual awards being doled out. Best Picture seems wide open — Roma? Green Book?? Black Panther??? — even if most of the acting categories feature heavy favorites following the long slog that is awards season. (In an uncharacteristically great decision the academy made over the past year, they’ve bumped the 2020 ceremony up a few weeks, which should help heighten the suspense in all categories next year.)
Without further ado, here are my picks in every category, including those pesky shorts. (And check out our spiffy printable ballot, so you can play along at home.)
BEST PICTURE
Nominees:
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
This is one of the closest Best Picture races in years. Normally a clear favorite has emerged at this point, but a different film has won each of the major guild awards, with the Producers Guild going with Green Book, the Directors Guild going with Roma, the Screen Actors Guild going with Black Panther and the Writers Guild going with Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Eighth Grade (neither of which is nominated here). The Golden Globes’ top drama prize, meanwhile, went to Bohemian Rhapsody, while comedy/musical went to Green Book, and BAFTA’s top prize went to Roma, while The Favourite took home Best British Film.
Most pundits agree the race will come down to Alfonso Cuarón’s deeply felt autobiographical drama Roma (which be the first Oscar win for Netflix) and Peter Farrelly’s middle-brow comedic drama Green Book (which would be impressive given its myriad controversies). Because of the Oscars “preferential balloting” system, which allows voters to rank films and because both films have their detractors — Roma perceived as too slow and cold, and Green Book too antiquated — Marvel’s well-regarded superhero sensation Black Panther could pull off the surprise complete its hero journey. Nonetheless, considering consecutive wins by artier, director-driven films like Moonlight and The Shape of Water, it feels like Roma‘s race to lose.
Prediction: Roma
Don’t be surprised by: Green Book
Dark horse: Black Panther
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees:
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Farrelly’s absence in this category could hurt Green Book in the Best Picture race (a rare feat last achieved by Argo in 2013 despite Ben Affleck’s being denied a directed nod). This academy likes to award ambitious visual feats, which is why someone like, well, Alfonso Cuarón was able to defeat Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) in 2014 for Gravity. With that in mind, Cuarón and Roma have the edge, but don’t discount Spike Lee given the sentimentality about his long-overdue first nomination in this category.
Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón
Don’t be surprised by: Spike Lee
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees:
Yaltiza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
While Lady Gaga played the role of early favorite for her big crossover, and Olivia Colman briefly assumed the role of favo(u)rite for her rousing portrayal of Queen Anne, the momentum now belongs to Glenn Close, who has so far gone 0 for 6 at the Oscars but who has won all the major lead-up awards. Close is indeed excellent — she’s Glenn Close; it’s what she does — but this is as much of a legacy Oscar as you’ll find this year.
Prediction: Glenn Close
Dark horse: Olivia Colman
BEST ACTOR
Nominees:
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
For much of last fall, A Star Is Born was on top of the world and writer-director-star Bradley Cooper appeared destined for a handful of Oscars. Cooper delivers a killer performance — one in which he disappeared under the skin of a haggard rocker, channeled Eddie Vedder, changed his voice a whole octave and sang his own songs. But that was before the emergence of Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice, and before Star faded like Jackson Maine. Since then, Rami Malek has banked a bevy of trophies for playing Freddie Mercury in the Queen biopic. Despite complaints against the film and the fact that unlike Cooper, Malek lip-synced the music, it’s difficult to envision the actor not winning for his captivating and showy turn.
Prediction: Rami Malek
Don’t be surprised by: Christian Bale
Dark horse: Bradley Cooper
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees:
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Another acting category with a clear-cut favorite: first-time nominee Regina King for her alternately nuanced and explosive performance in If Beale Street Could Talk — but don’t bet any first-born children. King was snubbed by the SAG Awards, and the last time an actor won an Oscar without a SAG nom was 2013 (Christoph Waltz, Best Supporting Actor for Django Unchained). But you’d have to go all the way back to 2002 (Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind) to see it happen in this category. If King is dethroned (sorry), expect the statuette to go to the previously 0-for-5 Amy Adams or BAFTA winner Rachel Weisz.
Prediction: Regina King
Don’t be surprised by: Amy Adams
Dark horse: Rachel Weisz
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
SAG winner Mahershala Ali is the heavy favorite here for his understated performance as piano virtuoso Don Shirley — and probably scores a few bonus points for being the only major player involved in Green Book not to suffer some bad PR snafu. However, he is just as much the lead as Viggo Mortensen, which underscores the complaint that Green Book tackles racism through the prism of a white man. Ali also just won two years ago for Moonlight, but a repeat so soon wouldn’t totally unprecedented: Christoph Waltz won twice in four years for Inglourious Basterds and Django. But there could be a surprise here: There are a lot of folks who want to see 74-year-old Sam Elliott win his first Oscar for his heart-wrenching turn in A Star Is Born.
My prediction: Sam Elliott
(DEFINITELY) Don’t be surprised by: Mahershala Ali
Dark horse: Richard E. Grant
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice
Like Best Picture, this race could come down to Roma versus Green Book, and could offer voters an opportunity to reward Farrelly, who was left out the Best Director race. But there are Academy members who will avoid Green Book due the anti-Muslim tweet that surfaced from co-writer (and son of Mortensen’s character) Nick Vallelonga, who has since disappeared from the campaign trail. That opens the door for voters to recognize a beloved, much-nominated film like The Favourite, which may not win too much elsewhere.
Prediction: The Favourite
Don’t be surprised by: Roma or Green Book
Dark horse: First Reformed
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Charlie Watchel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmont and Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper and Will Fetters, A Star Is Born
While A Star Is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk and Can You Ever Forgive Me? are all strong contenders, this could be the category that sees Spike Lee win his first competitive Academy Award (he does have an Honorary Oscar) for his bitingly topical story about an African-American detective infiltrating the KKK.
Prediction: BlacKkKlansman
Dark horse: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees:
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
For much of the year it seemed this trophy would come down between Disney’s Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet, both of which are fun (for the whole family) but also inferior to their respective predecessors. Then came our savior, the exuberantly riveting and stylish Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, which has been winning everything in sight. An Oscar is practically guaranteed.
Prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Nominees:
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
RBG was a sleeper hit at the box office with $14.3 million and should score a lot of points with voters who want to celebrate the ongoing legacy of the tireless Supreme Court Justice and pop culture icon Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Free Solo, the awe-inspiring thriller of a doc that follows rock climber Alex Honnold on a death-defying journey, has been no slouch at the ticket counter, either, racking up $16.2 million and (wait for it) climbing. Like last year’s unexpected but fully deserving winner, Icarus, Free Solo unfolds suspensefully in real time, and its only challenge entering the race was not being seen by enough people. That seems to have been solved.
Prediction: Free Solo
Don’t be surprised by: RBG
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Nominees:
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
With Roma scoring 10 nominations and the favorite to win Best Picture, it seems hard to beat in this category. But its status as frontrunner in the top race is exactly why there might be an upset: Voters could be thinking, Does it really need to win both? And they could choose the beloved Cold War, whose helmer Pawel Pawlikowski scored a hugely surprising Best Director nom. (Related: This is one of the strongest Foreign-Language FIlms lineups and years, and you should see all these movies.)
Prediction: Roma
Don’t be surprised by: Cold War
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees:
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born
Three of this year’s cinematography nominations belong to foreign-language films (Cold War, Never Look Away, Roma), while a fourth is a British import (The Favourite). Never Look Away was shot by revered American DP Caleb Deschanel, who is previously 0 for 5 at the Oscars so could be due. But it’s likelier this one is going to Alfonso Cuarón, who handled his own camerawork on Roma, or Lukasz ?al, who just upset Cuarón at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards.
Prediction: Roma
Don’t be surprised by: Cold War
Dark horse: Never Look Away
BEST EDITING
Nominees:
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
Here’s the rare category in which Alfonso Cuarón wasn’t nominated for his work on Roma. History shows this category dominated by two types of movies: action/war films (the past three winners were Dunkirk, Hacksaw Ridge and Mad Max: Fury Road) or frenetically paced dramas/thrillers (the winners before that were Whiplash, Gravity and Argo). None of this year’s contenders neatly fits into either bucket, and predictions are all over the place. We’ll go Vice in a squeaker over Bohemian Rhapsody and The Favourite, which won big at the ACE Eddie Awards.
Prediction: Vice
Don’t be surprised by: Bohemian Rhapsody or The Favourite
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees:
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Sure, Fiona Crombie and team transported us back to 18th-century England in Yorgos Lanthimos’s royal satire The Favourite in convincing, stylish fashion. But the film was shot in England (Hertfordshire to be exact). Hannah Beachler, the first African-American woman ever nominated in this category, took us all the way to Wakanda — in all its multicolor, high-tech glory — while Black Panther was shot almost entirely in Atlanta. That’s pretty damn impressive.
My prediction: Black Panther
Don’t be surprised by: The Favourite
Dark horse: Roma
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Once again this comes down to The Favourite versus Black Panther. The Costume Designers Guild didn’t make our pick easier when both won earlier this week (The Favourite‘s Sandy Powell for Period Film, and Panther‘s Ruth E. Carter for Sci-Fi/Fantasy Film). But while costume dramas have understandably prevailed here often in the past, I’m betting on Black.
My prediction: Black Panther
Don’t be surprised by: The Favourite
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Nominees:
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
Look at side-by-side photos of Dick Cheney and Christian Bale in character as Dick Cheney and tell me it doesn’t take a moment to figure out who’s who. That’s how good the hair and makeup jobs were by Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney on Vice, which should easily win the popular vote.
Prediction: Vice
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees:
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
There wasn’t one effects-driven sequence last year more memorable (and memed) than the disintegration of all those beloved superheroes (spoiler alert) at the end of Avengers: Infinity War. In the grand scheme of MCU movies it may not mean all anything — obviously Black Panther and Spider-Man aren’t actually dead — but it was a filmmaking coup and perfectly executed by Marvel’s VFX team. For that sequence alone, they take the Oscar.
Prediction: Avengers: Infinity War
Dark horse: First Man or Ready Player One
BEST SOUND EDITING
Nominees:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
Now for your annual explainer on the difference between Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing: Sound editing is the creation of nonmusical sound effects used in films (e.g., the monster noises in A Quiet Place, the thrash of Vibranium in Black Panther, etc.), while sound mixing is the blending and balancing all of the sounds in a film.
Prediction: First Man
Don’t be surprised by: Black Panther
BEST SOUND MIXING
Nominees:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
While Sound Editing tends to favor “bigger, louder,” we more often see music-driven films (Whiplash, Les Mis, Dreamgirls) prevail here. And given the energy of the Queen biopic Bohemian Rhapsody is so driven by music, it feels like a safe pick in a hard-to-predict category.
Prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody
Don’t be surprised by: A Star Is Born
Dark horse: First Man
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees:
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
One of the best scores of the year is missing in this category: Justin Hurwitz’s mesmerizing work on Damien Chazelle’s roundly snubbed First Man. But there’s still plenty to celebrate, beginning with second-time-nominee Nicholas Britell’s (Moonlight) gorgeous and moody compositions on Beale Street. In terms of a challenger, most see BlacKkKlansman or Black Panther as potential upset candidates, but don’t count out Alexandre Desplat’s percussive grooves on Isle of Dogs.
Prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk
Don’t be surprised by: BlacKkKlansman or Black Panther
Dark horse: Isle of Dogs
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees:
“All the Stars,” Black Panther
“I’ll Fight,” RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Here it is, your easiest category to predict. There could be a 100 people in the room, and 99 don’t believe in you, and just one does. Similarly, there is a one in 100 chance that the infection Lady Gaga single “Shallow” doesn’t land the Oscar.
Prediction: “Shallow”
Don’t be surprised by: “Shallow”
Dark horse: “Shallow”
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Nominees:
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin
Been feeling a little too happy recently and in need of some serious depressants? Have we got the category for you! The Oscar short nominees typically fall on the heavy side, but it’s hard to remember one category that felt so harrowing, distressing and anxiety-inducing (just ask Edgar Wright). Four of the five nominees (Detainment, Fauve, Mother, Skin) involve either horrific things happening to children and/or children doing horrific things. Then there’s the bittersweet and soulful Marguerite, which should win for numerous virtues — among them that it’s a breath of fresh air compared with the rest.
Prediction: Marguerite
Don’t be surprised by: Skin
Dark horse: Fauve
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Nominees:
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends
This could be a battle between two poignant parenting shorts, the sweet mommy-son-dumpling tale Bao (produced by the Disney-Pixar powerhouse) and the profound daddy-daughter-astronaut tale One Small Step. While you’d think Pixar would regularly clean up this category, the studio is only 2 for 11 this century, winning in 2017 for Piper and 2003 for For the Birds. Since Bao, unlike those two avian animated shorts, doesn’t have any birds in it, I’m playing favorites and going One Small Step.
Prediction: One Small Step
Don’t be surprised by: Bao
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Nominees:
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.
As shocking as it is to watch unearthed footage of a full-blown 20,000-person pro-Nazi rally at Madison Square Garden in 1939, further exploration of the event is lacking in Marshall Curry’s A Night at the Garden. The film could still win, as could the haunting British racism story Black Sheep, but India’s Period. End of Sentence. not only brings to light how taboo the topic of menstruation remains for women in that nation, the doc turns an unlikely subject into a charming, lively and inspiring tale that will leave you smiling.
Prediction: Period. End of Sentence.
Don’t be surprised by: Black Sheep
Dark horse: A Night at the Garden
Play along at home with this printable ballot:
The Oscars will be telecast live on ABC Sunday, Feb. 24 at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT.
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