Our 2019 Oscars instant predictions: Will 'Roma,' 'Green Book' or 'BlacKkKlansman' win?
Well, the 2019 Academy Award nominations didn’t fail to surprise (or snub) this morning, with critically acclaimed films like First Man and If Beale Street Could Talk not landing in the Best Picture race and a few acting contenders, like Timothée Chalamet and Claire Foy, left out in the cold.
Now that the ballot for the 91st edition of the Oscars has been finalized, here are some instant predictions of what takes the gold come Feb. 24.
Best Picture
Nominees:
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
There are varying theories about which of these films is now the frontrunner in this mad, mad derby. Is it Alfonso Cuarón’s love letter to his childhood nanny, Roma, or the acerbic royal satire The Favourite, which led the way with 10 nominations apiece? Is it the divisive racial dramedy Green Book, which won big at the Producers Guild Awards on Saturday, long a predictor of Oscar’s Best Picture? Or is it Spike Lee’s first foray into the top races, BlacKkKlansman, whose six nominations included a Best Editing nod over Roma, one of those below-the-line races to watch when it comes to the top prize? At this point I am going with Roma, which has thus far been the most consistent victor through the epic slog that is awards season.
Instant prediction: Roma
Best Director
Nominees:
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Notice one title I didn’t include as a potential frontrunner above: A Star Is Born, the Bradley Cooper-helmed remake of a remake of a remake that many folks (including this guy) figured was the film to beat going into awards season. Cooper’s snubbing was one of the morning’s biggest eye-raisers. He likely lost his slot to Polish helmer Pawel Pawlikowski for the acclaimed black-and-white musical romance Cold War. Again, though, it’s another black-and-white foreign-language film that’s the one to beat here.
Instant prediction: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Best Actress
Nominees:
Yaltiza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Another signifier that Roma is our new Oscars favorite was the semi-surprising emergence of its two lead actresses, with Yalitza Aparicio fending off Mary Poppins herself, Emily Blunt, in a battle of nannies. Still, this is likely a three-way race between seven-time nominee Glenn Close, who has never won, and first timers Olivia Colman and Lady Gaga. Odds favor The Wife star for what will could be lifetime achievement honor, à la Al Pacino in Scent of Woman or Denzel Washington in Training Day.
Instant prediction: Glenn Close, The Wife
Best Actor
Nominees:
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Does Bradley Cooper still have a shot here if A Star Is Born is fading? He might actually have a higher chance given that he was snubbed for directing (see how voters rallied around Argo after another actor turned director, Ben Affleck, was dissed in 2013). But like Best Actress, this is an ultra-competitive race, with showy performances from a pair of Golden Globe winners playing real-life figures, Christian Bale (Dick Cheney) and Rami Malek (Freddie Mercury). In fact this is the toughest major category to call so far.
Instant prediction: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Marina de Tavira was the big surprise in this category, edging out other contenders like Claire Foy (First Man) and SAG nominees Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place) and Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots). Ultimately this could turn out to be an extremely tight race between a pair of favorites, first-time nominee Regina King for her scene-stealing turn in If Beale Street Could Talk and six-time nominee Amy Adams, who is expectedly excellent as Lynne Cheney in Vice. Like Close, Adams could get a “past due” trophy, but she probably still has a few decades of Oscar-worthy turns in her.
Instant prediction: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Young 2018 nominee Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name) didn’t make the cut, shockingly, for Beautiful Boy, but our prior two Best Supporting Actors did: Sam Rockwell, who won last year for Three Billboards, and Mahershala Ali, who won two years ago for Moonlight. Ali has been considered the early favorite and seems to be the only one unscathed all the various Green Book controversies. But in what feels like a wide-open race, this could be a golden opportunity for the Academy to recognize one of a pair of never-nominated-before screen vets, Sam Elliott or Richard E. Grant.
Instant prediction: Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice
It’s mind-boggling to realize that First Reformed marks the very first Oscar nomination for Taxi Driver and Raging Bull writer Paul Schrader. He probably doesn’t have a great chance of winning, though, in a race in which The Favourite (this could be its best chance of winning a major category), Green Book (though Nick Vallelonga might be lucky just to have been nominated) and Roma are also represented. Alfonso Cuarón could potentially walk away with four Oscars if he also wins Best Cinematography.
Instant prediction: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper and Will Fetters, A Star Is Born
Netflix’s Western anthology The Ballad of Buster Scruggs wasn’t in the Oscar conversation much before today, but it wound up score three nominations, including what’s now the seventh time Joel and Ethan Coen have competed in a writing category. While this race could reward two superb films left out of the Best Picture race, Can You Ever Forgive Me? and If Beale Street Could Talk, it’s hard not to see Spike Lee walking away with his very first competitive Oscar.
Instant prediction: Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse
Occasionally there will be an Oscars category in which there’s very little doubt that the most deserving nominee will prevail. Early signs point to that being the case here for Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse, the technically stunning, exceptionally fun comic-book cartoon that won big at the Producers Guild this weekend and a week ago at the Critics’ Choice Awards.
Instant prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse
Best Documentary
Nominees:
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
The big head-scratcher here? The snubbing of the hit Mister Rogers doc Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, maybe the only film of the year that had people crying through the trailer. That oversight should open the door for the spellbinding and stunning rock-climbing thriller Free Solo. See it in Imax.
Instant prediction: Free Solo
Best Foreign-Language Film
Nominees:
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
Will academy voters have enough faith that Roma is going to win Best Picture that they decide to share the love and recognize Poland’s gorgeous entry, Cold War? Don’t count on it. This could actually be the fifth Oscar Alfono Cuarón wins, depending whether the Academy finally sorts out who exactly owns the Foreign-Language Film Oscar, the country (Mexico) or the filmmaker (Cuarón).
Instant prediction: Roma
Watch the casts of Roma, Beale Street and Eighth Grade react to making Barack Obama’s year-end list:
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