2024 Emmy Awards: Here's Who Will Win Vs. Who Should Win In 21 Of The Biggest Categories
The 2024 Emmy Awards are just a few short days away, and there are so many great nominees.
Note: The 2023 Emmy Awards ALSO happened in 2024 after they were postponed last September because of the SAG-AFTRA and WGA strikes.
Hosted by Eugene and Dan Levy, this year's ceremony features many first-time nominees and new shows. Namely, without Succession, a new drama series will reign supreme.
Shōgun leads the way with 25 nominations, followed by The Bear with 23 nominations. The Bear also breaks the record previously held by 30 Rock for the most nominations for a comedy series in a single year.
So, since I watch a ton of TV — and the Emmy Awards are basically my Super Bowl — below are my predictions for who will win vs. who should win in all of the scripted TV categories this year:
I am simply not a reality TV person so I didn't feel confident weighing in for that category, as well as diving into variety and talk show programming.
1.Outstanding Comedy Series
Who will win: The Bear
Who should win: The Bear
While there is a lot of conversation around whether or not The Bear is ACTUALLY a comedy, it will definitely win the Outstanding Comedy Series award. For this award show, The Bear is being recognized for Season 2, which is, in my opinion, the best season of the show overall. It gave us two award-worthy episodes — "Fishes" and "Forks" — and numerous amazing performances. I think there's no question it wins big. In another universe, I would love to see Reservation Dogs give us an amazing upset here, but I just don't think it'll happen. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.
Other nominees: Abbott Elementary, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Hacks, Only Murders in the Building, Palm Royale, Reservation Dogs, and What We Do in the Shadows
2.Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Who will win: Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)
Who should win: Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)
Again, Jeremy Allen White is the obvious winner here. He won his first Emmy Award for Season 1, and I think he'll do a repeat here by taking home this big award again. He was so good in Season 2, and I think the Television Academy will recognize his work once again.
Other nominees: Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows), Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm), Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building), Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building), and D'Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (Reservation Dogs)
3.Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Who will win: Jean Smart (Hacks)
Who should win: Jean Smart (Hacks)
Jean Smart is an icon, and the Emmys have historically loved her performance as Deborah Vance in Hacks. She literally won this award for the first two seasons, so I think a three-peat is likely to happen. While Quinta Brunson and Ayo Edebiri are her toughest opponents in this category, I think Jean will come out on top.
Other nominees: Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary), Ayo Edebiri (The Bear), Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building), Maya Rudolph (Loot), and Kristen Wiig (Palm Royale)
4.Oustanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Who will win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)
Who should win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach's win for Season 1 was a pleasant surprise for me, so I think it's a no-brainer that he takes this award home again for Season 2. In the second season of The Bear, he gave my favorite performance out of everyone. His work as Richie has been exemplary, as Ebon has showcased his character's growth. It all culminated in the episode "Forks," which was a triumph.
Other nominees: Lionel Boyce (The Bear), Paul W. Downs (Hacks), Paul Rudd (Only Murders in the Building), Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary), and Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)
5.Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Who will win: Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
Who should win: Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
I am leading the Hannah Einbinder Emmy Award campaign, and I am not even sorry about it. Hannah's comedic work opposite Jean Smart has been brilliant for three seasons now, but I think what solidifies her work in Season 3 as award-worthy is the season finale, which was one of the more dramatic moments in the show's run. I'm going to prepare to sob over her mention of Jean in her inevitable speech.
Other nominees: Carol Burnett (Palm Royale), Liza Colón-Zayas (The Bear), Janelle James (Abbott Elementary), Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary), and Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building)
6.Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Who will win: Christopher Storer ("Fishes," The Bear)
Who should win: Christopher Storer ("Fishes," The Bear)
As I mentioned above, "Fishes" was one of the best overall TV episodes of 2023. From the guest stars to the sheer anxiety the episode was able to achieve, it'll likely be recognized with an Emmy Award for creator Christopher Storer for his direction. While there are some other strong contenders in this category — I loved "Party" from Abbott Elementary and "Honeydew" from The Bear — "Fishes" is already being talked about as a perfect TV episode, and an Emmy Award for directing seems promising.
Other nominees: Randall Einhorn ("Party," Abbott Elementary), Ramy Youssef ("Honeydew," The Bear), Guy Ritchie ("Refined Aggression," The Gentlemen), Lucia Aniello ("Bulletproof," Hacks), and Mary Lou Belli ("I'm the Pappy," The Ms. Pat Show)
7.Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Who will win: Christopher Storer and Joanna Calo ("Fishes," The Bear)
Who should win: Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky ("Bulletproof," Hacks)
While I loved "Fishes," I think the episode hinges on the performances and the direction. While the writing is strong, I don't think it's as strong as other episodes of The Bear Season 2. That being said, the guest actors in this episode, Jon Bernthal and Jamie Lee Curtis, already won Outstanding Guest Actor and Guest Actress at the Creative Arts Emmys ceremony for this episode, so I think it's a heavy favorite to clean up in these technical categories, too. However, I think it might pull out the win, but I would LOVE to see "Bulletproof" from Hacks take this one. Hacks previously won an Emmy for writing for the pilot episode, so I hope the show keeps their good luck going this year, too.
Other nominees: Quinta Brunson ("Career Day," Abbott Elementary), Meredith Scardino and Sam Means ("Orlando," Girls5eva), Chris Kelly and Sarah Schneider ("Brooke Hosts a Night of Undeniable Good," The Other Two), and Jake Bender and Zach Dunn ("Pride Parade," What We Do in the Shadows)
8.Outstanding Drama Series
Who will win: Shōgun
Who should win: Shōgun
Shōgun is one of the most gorgeous TV shows I've ever watched in my life. I think it should easily be considered one of the best book-to-TV adaptations, and I've recommended it to everyone I've talked to this year. Shōgun has the most Emmy nominations, and I think it'll take home this big award easily. Like Succession before it, I think it'll be hard to stop Shōgun at this year's award show.
Other nominees: The Crown, Fallout, The Gilded Age, The Morning Show, Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Slow Horses, and 3 Body Problem
9.Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Who will win: Hiroyuki Sanada (Shōgun)
Who should win: Hiroyuki Sanada (Shōgun)
Hiroyuki Sanada's performance in Shōgun is one of the many reasons this show has been lauded as one of the best TV shows of recent memory. He's brilliant, ruthless, and mesmerizing in this role, and being such an acclaimed actor in Japan, I think the Emmys will finally give him this well-deserved win. There could be a surprise upset here with Gary Oldman winning for Slow Horses, another incredible drama series, but I think Shōgun has the competitive edge going into the ceremony.
Other nominees: Idris Elba (Hijack), Donald Glover (Mr. & Mrs. Smith), Walton Goggins (Fallout), Gary Oldman (Slow Horses), and Dominic West (The Crown)
10.Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Who will win: Anna Sawai (Shōgun)
Who should win: Anna Sawai (Shōgun)
Anna Sawai was the breakout star of Shōgun, in my opinion. Her first Emmy nomination already felt like the perfect recognition for her work, but I think it's only going to get sweeter when she wins this category. Anna's performance as Mariko was so deeply emotional, it's what made Shōgun one of the best drama series of the year.
Other nominees: Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show), Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age), Maya Erskine (Mr. & Mrs. Smith), Imelda Staunton (The Crown), and Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show)
11.Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Who will win: Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
Who should win: Tadanobu Asano (Shōgun)
I think Shōgun is the show to beat this year. However, I'm predicting a little bit of an upset in this category. Tadanobu Asano is another strong asset to Shōgun's arsenal of mesmerizing performances and I would love to see him win, but it's hard not to point out the Television Academy's love for Billy Crudup, who won in 2020. I think if anyone was going to prevent a Shōgun acting sweep, it's Billy.
Other nominees: Mark Duplass (The Morning Show), Jon Hamm (The Morning Show), Takehiro Hira (Shōgun), Jack Lowden (Slow Horses), and Jonathan Pryce (The Crown)
12.Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Who will win: Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
Who should win: Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
The Crown has always been beloved by the Emmy Awards, and while Shōgun is the favorite to win some of the bigger awards this year, I think Elizabeth Debicki will easily walk away with her first Emmy for her work as Princess Diana in the final season. The last season notably tackled Princess Diana's final days and her death, and Elizabeth handled it with poise while delivering a great performance.
Other nominees: Christine Baranski (The Gilded Age), Nicole Beharie (The Morning Show), Greta Lee (The Morning Show), Lesley Manville (The Crown), Karen Pittman (The Morning Show), and Holland Taylor (The Morning Show)
13.Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Who will win: Stephen Daldry ("Sleep, Dearie Sleep," The Crown)
Who should win: Frederick E.O. Toye ("Crimson Sky," Shōgun)
As I mentioned above, Shōgun is the clear frontrunner in the drama categories, but if there was going to be a category where the Television Academy gives a final Emmy to The Crown, I think it might be here. Especially because Stephen Daldry is nominated for directing the series finale, and he has won since Season 2. That being said, I really hope Frederick E.O. Toye still manages to snag a win for "Crimson Sky," because it was one of the best episodes of Shōgun Season 1.
Other nominees: Mimi Leder ("The Overview Effect," The Morning Show), Hiro Murai ("First Date," Mr. & Mrs. Smith), Saul Metzstein ("Strange Games," Slow Horses), and Salli Richardson-Whitfield ("Beat L.A.," Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty)
14.Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Who will win: Rachel Kondo and Justin Marks ("Anjin," Shōgun)
Who should win: Rachel Kondo and Justin Marks ("Anjin," Shōgun)
Succession has dominated this category in recent years, so it's exciting to see a new Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series winner be crowned this year. Shōgun being nominated twice in this category, I think, means it's the favorite to win; it's just a matter of which episode. Personally, I think "Anjin" is stronger on the writing front, so it'll likely come out on top. There could be a potential upset here with The Crown, but I think that is more likely to happen in the directing category.
Other nominees: Peter Morgan and Meriel Sheibani-Clare ("Ritz," The Crown), Geneva Robertson-Dworet and Graham Wagner ("The End," Fallout), Francesca Sloane and Donald Glover ("First Date," Mr. & Mrs. Smith), Rachel Kondo and Caillin Puente ("Crimson Sky," Shōgun), and Will Smith ("Negotiating with Tigers," Slow Horses)
15.Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Who will win: Baby Reindeer
Who should win: Baby Reindeer
Baby Reindeer is the frontrunner in the limited series categories this year, and rightly so. This show was chilling, and I can't even accurately describe all the reasons why. You just have to watch it for yourself. Baby Reindeer should be thanking Shōgun for moving to the drama category because it has paved a clear path for this unlikely Netflix series to win some big awards.
Other nominees: Fargo, Lessons in Chemistry, Ripley, and True Detective: Night Country
16.Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Who will win: Andrew Scott (Ripley)
Who should win: Andrew Scott (Ripley)
As a ride-or-die Andrew Scott fan, I am just hoping this is when he finally wins an Emmy Award, and I'll pretend it was for The Priest in Fleabag. His work in Ripley is very good, so I would love to see him recognized with this award, and I think there's a high likelihood it could happen. I think Richard Gadd, who is nominated for his performance in Baby Reindeer, is more likely to win for writing (more on that below), so I'm pulling for Andrew Scott here.
Other nominees: Matt Bomer (Fellow Travelers), Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer), Jon Hamm (Fargo), and Tom Hollander (Feud: Capote vs. The Swans)
17.Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Who will win: Jodie Foster (True Detective: Night Country)
Who should win: Jodie Foster (True Detective: Night Country)
Jodie Foster has never won an Emmy Award before, and I think now is when it's going to happen. Her performance as Liz Danvers and her chemistry with Kali Reis's Evangeline Navarro was exceptional, and I think the Television Academy will see this as an opportunity to recognize her work in this show, as well as her storied career. Plus, the Emmys love when an actor who is best known for movies ventures into the TV space.
Other nominees: Brie Larson (Lessons in Chemistry), Juno Temple (Fargo), Sofía Vergara (Griselda), and Naomi Watts (Feud: Capote vs. The Swans)
18.Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Who will win: Jonathan Bailey (Fellow Travelers)
Who should win: Jonathan Bailey (Fellow Travelers)
Jonathan Bailey is going to get up on the Emmys stage to accept his award, and I am going to burst into tears. I just know it. While Matt Bomer was good in Fellow Travelers, Jonathan was the heart and soul. His work made me sob uncontrollably and just be amazed at how he's been able to turn in such different performances across multiple shows and movies in such a short span. If you haven't watched Jonathan in Fellow Travelers yet, you won't be disappointed by his heartbreaking performance.
Other nominees: Robert Downey Jr. (The Sympathizer), Tom Goodman-Hill (Baby Reindeer), John Hawkes (True Detective: Night Country), Lamorne Morris (Fargo), Lewis Pullman (Lessons in Chemistry), and Treat Williams (Feud: Capote vs. The Swans)
19.Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Who will win: Jessica Gunning (Baby Reindeer)
Who should win: Jessica Gunning (Baby Reindeer)
Jessica Gunning's work in Baby Reindeer was easily one of the most talked about performances this past year. If you had a friend tell you about this show, then chances are they mentioned how chilling and mesmerizing Jessica was as Martha Scott. I think this is a category Baby Reindeer has locked up, but I really also loved Lily Gladstone, Kali Reis, and Aja Naomi King's performances, too.
Other nominees: Dakota Fanning (Ripley), Lily Gladstone (Under the Bridge), Aja Naomi King (Lessons in Chemistry), Diane Lane (Feud: Capote vs. The Swans), Nava Mau (Baby Reindeer), and Kali Reis (True Detective: Night Country)
20.Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Who will win: Weronika Tofilska ("Episode 4," Baby Reindeer)
Who should win: Weronika Tofilska ("Episode 4," Baby Reindeer)
The fourth episode of Baby Reindeer is easily one of the most chilling and wild hours of TV I watched this year. In fact, every time I've talked to someone about the show, it usually includes them saying, "OMG, Episode 4!" So, it's no surprise that Weronika Tofilska was nominated for directing this episode, and it should equally be no surprise that she's the clear frontrunner to win the category.
Other nominees: Noah Hawley ("The Tragedy of the Commons," Fargo), Gus Van Sant ("Pilot," Feud: Capote vs. The Swans), Millicent Shelton ("Poirot," Lessons in Chemistry), Steven Zaillian (Ripley), and Issa López (True Detective: Night Country)
21.Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Who will win: Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer)
Who should win: Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer)
As I mentioned above, even if he doesn't win in his acting category, Richard Gadd will likely leave a winner following the 2024 Emmy Awards. There is no Baby Reindeer without Richard, and I think the most poignant way for this chapter to close is with an Emmy Award for Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie. The show was adapted from his one-man autobiographical show, and I think what made the show work so well is how well Richard penned all seven episodes.
Other nominees: Charlie Brooker ("Joan Is Awful," Black Mirror), Noah Hawley ("The Tragedy of the Commons," Fargo), Ron Nyswaner ("You're Wonderful," Fellow Travelers), Steven Zaillian (Ripley), and Issa López ("Part 6," True Detective: Night Country)
The 2024 Emmy Awards air on Sunday, Sept. 15, 2024, at 8 p.m. on ABC and the next day on Hulu.