2024 Emmy Predictions: Best Drama Writing
This year, “Shōgun” has extended the unbroken 2020s trend of at least one series earning multiple Best Drama Writing Emmy notices at once. Although none of the earlier cases resulted in wins, the new FX series is generally expected to fare differently, especially since, unlike most of its predecessors, it won’t have to fend off three-time winner “Succession.”
Of the 10 individuals presently nominated for this writing award, only 2021 champ Peter Morgan (“The Crown”) has competed for it before. Excluding his show and “Slow Horses,” a majority of the programs in this lineup launched in 2024.
More from GoldDerby
In order to determine the likelihood of “Shōgun” making good on one of its bids, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to make your predictions in this and 24 other Primetime Emmy categories by September 15.
“The Crown” – Peter Morgan and Meriel Sheibani-Clare
Episode: “Ritz”
Morgan independently wrote 50 of this concluded show’s episodes and shared credit on its remaining 10, including this one from season six. Set primarily in the late 1990s, “Ritz” brings the tragic true story of supporting character Princess Margaret (Lesley Manville) to a close shortly before the entire series reaches its finale.
“Fallout” – Geneva Robertson-Dworet and Graham Wagner
Episode: “The End”
Although both “Fallout” scripters are new to this category, Wagner previously earned two writing notices for “Portlandia” plus six producing bids for that series and “Silicon Valley.” Based on the video game franchise of the same name, this show begins by familiarizing viewers with its perilous, post-apocalyptic setting.
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” – Francesca Sloane and Donald Glover
Episode: “First Date”
This lineup’s second of three pilot episodes introduces its title characters as a pair of fledgling spies assigned to function as a married couple. Glover, who plays the male Smith, previously earned TV academy recognition for writing the respective comedy and limited series “Atlanta” and “Swarm.”
“Shōgun” – Rachel Kondo and Justin Marks
Episode: “Anjin”
In addition to creating and producing this period drama based on the similarly titled novel, Kondo and Marks co-wrote the opening two episodes of its first season. In “Anjin,” 16th century English sailor John Blackthorne (Cosmo Jarvis) struggles to adjust to his new status as a feudal Japanese prisoner.
“Shōgun” – Rachel Kondo and Caillin Puente
Episode: “Crimson Sky”
Kondo shares her second 2024 writing nomination with Puente, a newcomer to this specific profession who previously co-produced Starz’s “Counterpart” with Marks. In addition to receiving writing and story editing credit for “Crimson Sky,” she served in the latter capacity on four more “Shōgun” installments.
“Slow Horses” – Will Smith
Episode: “Negotiating with Tigers”
Smith, who shared in two 2010s Best Comedy Series wins for “Veep,” created and has written 10 episodes of this three-season show centered on a team of MI5 rejects. In his mid-season submission, the protagonists delve deeper into danger as they work to secure the release of a kidnapped colleague.
So, what will win the 2024 Emmy for Best Drama Writing? Although there have been quite a few failed cases in recent years, it is possible to overcome vote splitting in this category, as evidenced by the success of “Breaking Bad” in 2014 and “Mad Men” from 2008 to 2010. Indeed, based on its obvious popularity among TV academy voters, one can reasonably expect “Shōgun” to emulate “Mad Men” by clinching the Best Drama Series and Writing prizes on its first outing.
Over 70% of the Gold Derby users predicting this race confidently assert that “Crimson Sky” will be chosen over “Anjin” here, most likely because the former is also up for the directing award. With that in mind, it would make perfect sense for the Best Drama Series frontrunner’s ninth episode to achieve both honors in the vein of “Connor’s Wedding” (“Succession,” 2023), “War” (“The Crown,” 2021), and “Offred” (“The Handmaid’s Tale,” 2017).
PREDICT the 2024 Emmy winners through September 15
Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?
SIGN UP for Gold Derby newsletters and updates
Best of GoldDerby
'Survivor 47' cast photos: Meet the 18 new castaways competing in Fall 2024, including 1 celebrity
'House of Villains' Season 2 cast: Meet the 10 reality TV baddies [PHOTOS]
Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.