2024 Emmy Predictions: Best TV Movie/Limited Series Directing
Seven years after coming up short on their respective first and second Best TV Movie/Limited Series Directing Emmy bids against Jean-Marc Vallée (“Big Little Lies”), Steven Zaillian and Noah Hawley are involved in a rematch as helmers of the non-continuing programs “Ripley” and “Fargo.” Despite the quality of their new work and their strong Emmys resumes, they are widely expected to once again be bested by a complete first-timer: Weronika Tofilska (“Baby Reindeer”).
Tofilska is joined in this directing lineup’s category newcomer majority by Issa López (“True Detective”), Millicent Shelton (“Lessons in Chemistry”), and Gus Van Sant (“Feud”). Counting Zaillian and Hawley, Shelton is the only one in the bunch who has ever earned TV academy recognition for directing a non-limited series, as her very first bid came for “30 Rock” in 2009.
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In order to determine whether this is truly Tofilska’s race to lose, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to make your predictions in this and 24 other Primetime Emmy categories by September 15.
“Baby Reindeer” – Weronika Tofilska
Episode: “Episode 4”
Tofilska directed the first four episodes of this seven-part series before passing the baton to Josephine Bornebusch. Her final contribution, which also serves as the show’s Best Music Supervision submission, primarily sheds light on main character Donny’s (Richard Gadd) traumatic past working relationship with predatory TV writer Darrien (Tom Goodman-Hill).
“Fargo” – Noah Hawley
Episode: “The Tragedy of the Commons”
Hawley, who shared in a Best Limited Series win for “Fargo” in 2014, is now on his third directing and fourth writing and producing bids for the anthology program. The fifth season premiere, which could emulate the directing category success of season one opener “The Crocodile’s Dilemma,” kicks off the tale of Dot Lyon (Juno Temple), a seemingly ordinary Minnesota housewife whose life is turned upside down when her past comes back to haunt her.
“Feud: Capote vs. The Swans” – Gus Van Sant
Episode: “Pilot”
As it happens, the list of directors defeated by Vallée seven years ago includes Ryan Murphy, who was recognized for the inaugural season of this anthology series entitled “Feud: Bette and Joan.” Emmys first-timer Van Sant helmed six of the latest edition’s eight episodes, including the pilot that sets up the story of how famed writer Truman Capote (Tom Hollander) selfishly destroyed his close friendships with half a dozen New York socialites.
“Lessons in Chemistry” – Millicent Shelton
Episode: “Poirot”
Shelton follows Ava DuVernay (“When They See Us,” 2019) and Michaela Coel (“I May Destroy You,” 2021) as only the third Black female nominee in this category’s history. Her second of two “Lessons in Chemistry” episodes finds heroine Elizabeth Zott (Brie Larson) adjusting to the power that comes with her newfound fame as a 1960s TV star while supporting character Harriet (Aja Naomi King) takes a stand for civil rights.
“Ripley” – Steven Zaillian
Episode: N/A
Per TV academy rules, Zaillian was not required to submit just a single episode of this series for voter consideration since he directed all eight of them. The former directing, writing, and producing nominee for “The Night Of” is similarly recognized for this adaptation of Patricia Highsmith’s “The Talented Mr. Ripley” in which Andrew Scott plays the titular homicidal con artist.
“True Detective: Night Country” – Issa López
Episode: N/A
This year marks the second instance of at least three women competing for this award, with the first having involved 2020 winner Maria Schrader (“Unorthodox”) and nominees Steph Green (“Watchmen”), Nicole Kassell (“Watchmen”), and Lynn Shelton (“Little Fires Everywhere”). Like Hawley and Zaillian, López is simultaneously nominated for writing and producing this series about a pair of female Alaska police officers who team up to solve a confounding crime.
So, what will win the 2024 Emmy for Best TV Movie/Limited Series Directing? Although “Baby Reindeer” is generally predicted to be the third consecutive recipient of the limited series, writing, and directing prizes, the last one won’t come as easily as the others. As Gold Derby’s odds illustrate, it is hindered by the fact that creator and writer Gadd never served as its director and thus cannot emulate the immediately preceding triple triumphs of Mike White (“The White Lotus”) and Lee Sung Jin (“Beef”).
Luckily for “Baby Reindeer,” there is plenty of precedent for Best Limited Series winners achieving split directing and writing victories, with the most recent cases having involved “Chernobyl” (2019) and “Olive Kitteridge” (2015). Due to its palpable popularity and 74% support rate among the Gold Derby users predicting this race, it shouldn’t have much trouble completing its three-category sweep.
PREDICT the 2024 Emmy winners through September 15
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