2024 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special
We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.
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The State of the Race
The Emmy nominations for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special were definitely more predictable than their counterparts on the series end. Most of the projects recognized fit the mold of what has won recently, with one nominee “Girls State” even being the sequel to the 2021 winner “Boys State” (both films are distributed by Apple TV+.)
Since then though, the winners have been profiles of pop culture icons that especially made their mark in the TV space. “George Carlin’s American Dream” winning in 2022 bodes well for Disney+ and director Ron Howard’s chances to win for “Jim Henson Idea Man,” which similarly takes a posthumous look at a creative that blazed his own trail that still looms large over today’s culture.
But the Emmys really can take a lot of campaigning, and “Albert Brooks: Defending My Life” had the power to not only bring out the titular comedy legend for rare public appearances in promotion of the film, but has been doing them with his best friend Rob Reiner, a two-time Emmy winner, who directed the project. The most recent winner in the category, “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie,” is of a similar ilk to the HBO documentary, where part of the appeal to voters is having the subject of the film out and about, reminding people why they fell in love with his work in the first place.
“Steve! (Martin) A Documentary in 2 Pieces,” another nominee from Apple TV+ also fits that type, but again, these things can require some campaigning, and the project’s subject is already very busy with his other Emmy-nominated TV project “Only Murders in the Building.” There is a chance though that voters just may feel something is in the air, especially with Martin’s big Season 3 musical number getting an extra Emmy nomination for the Hulu series, causing them to feel like now is the perfect time to give the comedic actor his flowers. It would also be the first Emmy for director Morgan Neville, who has become a huge name in the documentary world after his 2014 Oscar win.
“The Greatest Night in Pop,” Netflix’s nominee directed by Bao Nguyen, is tons of fun in its retelling of how “We Are the World” came together, but where it may fall short in voters is that the projects they seem attracted to are more in depth on an individual’s body of work rather than one that capture a cultural moment involving several well known parties that could all have their own documentaries.
Nominees are listed in order of their likelihood to win.
Power Rankings:
“Albert Brooks: Defending My Life” (HBO)
“Jim Henson Idea Man” (Disney+)
“Steve! (Martin) A Documentary in 2 Pieces” (Apple TV+)
“Girls State” (Apple TV+)
“The Greatest Night in Pop” (Netflix)
Will Win: “Albert Brooks: Defending My Life”
Could Win: “Jim Henson Idea Man”
Should Win: “Jim Henson Idea Man”
More Category Predictions:
Outstanding Animated Program
Outstanding Talk Series
Outstanding Scripted Variety Series
Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series
View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.
Last Year’s Winner: “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Should “Girls State” specifically win this category, it would not only be two Emmys in a row for Apple TV+, but it would be another win for the filmmakers, who made the project as a follow up to “Boys State,” the Emmy-winning documentary from 2020.
Notable Ineligible Series: “20 Days in Mariupol” (ineligible as a 2024 Oscar nominee); “Bobi Wine: The People’s President” (ineligible as a 2024 Oscar nominee); “The Eternal Memory” (ineligible as a 2024 Oscar nominee); “To Kill a Tiger” (ineligible as a 2024 Oscar nominee); “Power” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); “Federer: Twelve Final Days” (the film will not premiere in time to be eligible); “I Am: Celine Dion” (the film will not premiere in time to be eligible)
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2023 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special
2023 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series
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