2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.
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The State of the Race
One criteria to think about when determining how votes will go (even if it may be a bad way to think about art in general) is to ask who won the season? Who is the performer that viewers will have in their heads whenever they think of the specific season they are nominated for? That has obviously been Jean Smart in past seasons of “Hacks”? It is hard to say her Season 2 win was not well-earned when one thinks about how well she performs those scenes of Deborah Vance sharpening her standup act. But with Season 3, the moment everyone is talking about focuses more on her scene partner Hannah Einbinder who has yet to win an Emmy for her role on the Max series.
More so than any of the other Comedy categories, there is a case to be made for every one of this year’s Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series nominees to win the Emmy, which is especially notable when one considers how the category was expanded at the last minute. Smart has already won the award for “Hacks” twice, “Abbott Elementary” creator/star Quinta Brunson is the most recent category winner, and “The Bear” star Ayo Edebiri just won an Emmy as well this year in the Supporting Actress in a Comedy series category.
Brunson has lost this category to Smart before, and “The Bear” is overall the most dominant Emmys contenders, but if voters were to really put the trios’ performances up against each other, the “Abbott Elementary” star got the best showcase for her talents with Season 3, which gave her a whole arc on her own as a district fellow, and a fun season finale where her Janine Teagues threw a party where all the characters were invited, and a long-teased climactic moment finally happened.
But again, there are more nominees to consider. “Bridesmaids” alums Kristen Wiig and Maya Rudolph are nominated against each other for their respective Apple TV+ vehicles “Palm Royale” and “Loot.” Though neither show made it into the cultural zeitgeist the way something like “Ted Lasso” did, Rudolph has the most nominations this year of any performer, and has won several Emmys already, so she likely has an edge. Though Wiig has arguably a juicier role given how big a production “Palm Royale” is.
Meanwhile, this year extends Selena Gomez’s record as the most nominated Latina producer for “Only Murders in the Building,” with the added bonus of finally breaking into this category recognizing her performance on the hit Hulu murder mystery. If the road took this long to be recognized, it does not bode well for her chances to win the category, especially since the show is ongoing, but it may give her a bit of momentum to keep being nominated for her acting work in the future.
Nominees are listed in order of their likelihood to win.
Power Rankings:
Jean Smart, “Hacks” (Max)
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear” (FX)
Maya Rudolph, “Loot” (Apple TV+)
Kristen Wiig, “Palm Royale” (Apple TV+)
Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Will Win: Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Could Win: Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Should Win: Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
More Comedy Category Predictions:
Outstanding Comedy Series
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.
Last Year’s Winner: Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Still Eligible: Yes.
Hot Streak: Quinta Brunson, Jean Smart, and Ayo Edebiri are all coming off an Emmy win for the most recent season of their shows. If Brunson were to win, it would be the first time a Black actress has ever won twice (and twice consecutively). If Edebiri were to win, she would just generally be the first Black actress to win for a Lead and/or Supporting comedy performance two seasons in a row. If Smart wins, she moves up the list of actresses with the most Emmys in this category, up next to legends like Lucille Ball.
Notable Ineligible Series: Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (ended); Christina Applegate, “Dead to Me” (ended); Jenna Ortega, “Wednesday” (Season 2 is not eligible); Natasha Lyonne, “Poker Face” (Season 2 is not eligible)
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