2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.
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The State of the Race
With the limited series races especially, nothing is set in stone. For nearly a year it looked like “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” star Evan Peters was a shoo-in for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie, given the project’s popularity, but “Beef” star Steven Yeun then entered the race in April, eclipsing the fellow Netflix actor.
“Ripley” and “Baby Reindeer” did not premiere as far apart from each other, but it does seem like another case where two Netflix series are splitting up the limited series categories they are favored for. The major difference this year is that Richard Gadd, nominated for the latter show, also nominated for writing “Baby Reindeer.” When competition is this tight, voters will give the nominated creator/star the Writing Emmy to acknowledge the work they did while leaving room to give an Emmy to an actor who wasn’t as closely involved behind the scenes of the show they were on. A great example of this is when Michaela Coel won for writing “I May Destroy You” in 2021, while “Mare of Easttown” star Kate Winslet won the Lead Actress Emmy. That would be analogous to Gadd winning for writing, and Andrew Scott winning the Emmy for starring in “Ripley.”
A strong selling point for Scott is that unlike one of his main competitors, “Fargo” Season 5 lead Jon Hamm, who did win an Emmy for his star-making role on “Mad Men,” the Irish actor did not win an Emmy for his breakout turn in “Fleabag.” Winning for his take on Patricia Highsmith’s iconic literary character would be Scott’s first time receiving an Emmy.
When nominations were announced, it was pointed out that the majority of the performances recognized are queer roles played by actors that are part of the LGBTQ community. This angle on the race plays well into Matt Bomer’s Emmys campaign, as he was a key part in getting Showtime’s gay historical romance “Fellow Travelers” made, and gives the most expansive performance. Meanwhile Tom Hollander does an excellent job as Truman Capote on “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans,” but would likely not talk as much about identifying with the character. It has also been said that his FX series loses steam in the back half.
Nominees are listed in order of their likelihood to win.
Power Rankings:
Andrew Scott, “Ripley” (Netflix)
Jon Hamm, “Fargo” (FX)
Matt Bomer, “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
Tom Hollander, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Will Win: Andrew Scott, “Ripley”
Could Win: Matt Bomer, “Fellow Travelers”
Should Win: Andrew Scott, “Ripley”
More Limited Series and TV Movie Category Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Outstanding TV Movie
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.
Last Year’s Winner: Steven Yeun, “Beef”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Ever since Netflix’s first win in the category five years ago, with Jharrel Jerome for “When They See Us,” the streaming service has had one of its stars win every other year. Should a Netflix star like Andrew Scott (“Ripley”) or Richard Gadd (“Baby Reindeer”) win, it would be the first time Netflix would begin build a streak in the category.
Notable Ineligible Series: André Holland, “The Big Cigar” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Jake Gyllenhaal, “Presumed Innocent” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Daniel Brühl, “Becoming Karl Lagerfeld” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Laurence Fishburne, “Clipped” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Nicholas Galitzine, “The Idea of You” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); Jake Gyllenhaal, “Road House” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration)
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