2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.
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The State of the Race
Across several winter TV awards, where shows from the back half of 2023 go up against shows from the front half of 2023 that likely already won several Emmys that year, the only limited series acting win that really previewed the result for the Emmy this year was Jonathan Bailey winning a Critics Choice Award for his performance in “Fellow Travelers.”
Though that is not an awards show that has huge sway over how the TV Academy votes, it would actually make a lot of sense for the British actor to go and win the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie Emmy this year as he has been moving fast toward this trajectory. Bailey has been a highlight of plenty of critically acclaimed British series like “Broadchurch” and “Chewing Gum,” and led the Netflix record-breaking second season of “Bridgerton.” An Emmy would stamp him down as another TV success story right before he goes off to become a film star in “Wicked” and the latest “Jurassic Park” sequel.
It is also a particularly meaningful role, as he is a member of the LGBTQ community in real life playing a character on “Fellow Travelers” that walks the audience through many of the trials and tribulations of gay Americans in the 1950s through the 1980s.
As the Emmys catches Bailey right before his transfer to film, it also acknowledges Robert Downey Jr. in his come off from winning the Oscar for “Oppenheimer.” The veteran actor, who has been nominated once before for “Ally McBeal,” plays five different roles on HBO’s “The Sympathizer,” in addition to serving as an executive producer on the literary adaptation. While that requires more range than most, what hurts Downey is that he is the sole actor nominated for a project that was meant to spotlight Vietnamese talent. That may rub some voters the wrong way, even though they are ultimately at fault for that fact.
With the Emmys nominations announcement revealing that John Hawkes was also a nominee for Outstanding Original Music And Lyrics for a song he wrote for “True Detective: Night Country,” there has been a boost of intrigue for his performance on the HBO series that actually led Limited Series nominations this year. Hawkes likely has the best chance among the nominees whose shows are also nominated for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series.
For many TV viewers, “Lessons in Chemistry” on Apple TV+ was a breakout role for Lewis Pullman, who previously had a small yet memorable role “Top Gun: Maverick.” The young star had also been nominated for some of the winter TV awards like Critics Choice and the Independent Spirit Awards, so he has gotten a headstart on campaigning. Meanwhile Tom Goodman-Hill is more of a last minute addition from April’s hugely popular Netflix release “Baby Reindeer.” Though his character may be difficult to stomach, it does say a lot that he was able to secure a nomination with little campaigning.
An Emmy nomination for “Fargo” star Lamorne Morris has been a longtime coming, but even he jokingly accepted it as recognition for his time on “New Girl.” The FX series he is nominated for can be tricky, as it is such a big ensemble of power players, so some may gravitate toward other performances should they give the show a first watch.
Lastly, the posthumous nomination for “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” is likely as big an honor as his performance will get, as awards voters very rarely give the award to people who are not around to campaign, however tragic the circumstance.
Nominees are listed in order of their likelihood to win.
Power Rankings:
Jonathan Bailey, “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
Robert Downey Jr., “The Sympathizer” (HBO)
John Hawkes, “True Detective: Night Country” (HBO)
Lewis Pullman, “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Tom Goodman-Hill, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Lamorne Morris, “Fargo” (FX)
Treat Williams, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
Will Win: Jonathan Bailey, “Fellow Travelers”
Could Win: Robert Downey Jr., “The Sympathizer”
Should Win: Jonathan Bailey, “Fellow Travelers”
More Limited Series and TV Movie Category Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Outstanding TV Movie
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.
Last Year’s Winner: Paul Walter Hauser, “Black Bird”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Last season, Hauser helped Apple TV+ score its first win in this category. Though competition is tough, someone like “Lessons in Chemistry” star Lewis Pullman, or “Masters of the Air” star Barry Keoghan winning could help the streaming service get a streak going.
Notable Ineligible Series: Alessandro Nivola, “The Big Cigar” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Ed O’Neill, “Clipped” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Peter Sarsgaard, O-T Fagbenle, and Bill Camp, “Presumed Innocent” (the season will not air in time to be eligible)
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