2024 Oscars: Best Picture Predictions
The 2024 Oscars is set for March 10, 2024 in its traditional home, the Dolby Theater. Films released theatrically from January 1 to December 31 of 2023 are eligible for consideration for the 96th annual Academy Awards. Scroll down for our updated 2024 Oscar predictions for Best Picture. (Only movies confirmed for release in 2023 are included; keep checking back as new contenders enter the race.)
Some of the early Oscar hopefuls were launched at Sundance in January and Cannes in May. Four more film festivals — Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York — will showcase more movies. However, the ongoing writers and actors strikes could reduce the visibility of those contenders. Likewise for those films that forego the festival circuit entirely.
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Voting for the 10 shortlisted categories runs from Dec. 14 to 18, with the semi-finalists revealed on Dec. 21. Nominations voting kicks off on Jan. 11, 2024 for six days with the slate of final contenders announced on Jan. 23. Final voting starts on Feb. 22 and is over six days later.
To make our 2024 Oscar predictions for Best Picture, we consider many factors: the pedigree of the filmmakers, the critical reception to their previous films, the box office tally and the track record of the studios.
UPDATED: December 29, 2023
LEADING CONTENDERS
“American Fiction” (Amazon)
Release date: December 15, 2023
Director: Cord Jefferson
Writer: Cord Jefferson
Cast: Jeffrey Wright, Tracee Ellis Ross, Issa Rae, Sterling K. Brown
Plot: “A novelist who’s fed up with the establishment profiting from “Black” entertainment uses a pen name to write a book that propels him to the heart of hypocrisy and the madness he claims to disdain.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 93%
Metacritic: 81
“Anatomy of a Fall” (Le Pacte)
Release date: August 23, 2023
Director: Justine Triet
Writer: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
Cast: Sandra Hüller, Swann Arlaud, Milo Machado-Graner, Antoine Reinartz
Plot: “A woman is suspected of her husband’s murder, and their blind son faces a moral dilemma as the sole witness.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 97%
Metacritic: 89
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Release date: July 21, 2023
Director: Greta Gerwig
Writer: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
Cast: Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, America Ferrera, Issa Rae
Plot: “Barbie suffers a crisis that leads her to question her world and her existence.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 88%
Metacritic: 80
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
Release date: December 25, 2023
Director: Blitz Bazawule
Writer: Marcus Gardley
Cast: Fantasia Barrino, Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo
Plot: “Musical adaptation of Alice Walker‘s novel about the life-long struggles of an African American woman living in the south during the early 1900s.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 86%
Metacritic: 70
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Release date: November 10, 2023
Director: Alexander Payne
Writer: David Hemingson
Cast: Paul Giamatti, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Carrie Preston, Dominic Sessa
Plot: “The disliked Barton Academy teacher Paul Hunham is responsible for supervising the students who are unable to return to their homes for Christmas break. He is forced to deal with one particularly rebellious student, Angus.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 96%
Metacritic: 82
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple)
Release date: October 20, 2023
Director: Martin Scorsese
Writer: Martin Scorsese and Eric Roth
Cast: Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, Lily Gladstone, Jesse Plemons
Plot: “Members of the Osage tribe in the United States are murdered under mysterious circumstances in the 1920s, sparking a major F.B.I. investigation involving J. Edgar Hoover.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 93%
Metacritic: 89
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Release date: November 22, 2023
Director: Bradley Cooper
Writer: Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
Cast: Bradley Cooper, Carey Mulligan, Matt Bomer, Maya Hawke
Plot: “The complex love of Leonard and Felicia, from the time they met in 1946 at a party and continuing through two engagements, a 25-year marriage, and three children.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 80%
Metacritic: 77
“Oppenheimer” (Universal)
Release date: July 21, 2023
Director: Christopher Nolan
Writer: Christopher Nolan
Cast: Cillian Murphy, Robert Downey Jr, Emily Blunt, Matt Damon
Plot: “The story of American scientist, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and his role in the development of the atomic bomb.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 93%
Metacritic: 88
“Past Lives” (A24)
Release date: June 2, 2023
Director: Celine Song
Writer: Celine Song
Cast: Greta Lee, Teo Yoo, John Magaro, Choi Won-young
Plot: “Nora and Hae Sung, two deeply connected childhood friends, are wrested apart after Nora’s family emigrates from South Korea. Twenty years later, they are reunited for one fateful week as they confront notions of love and destiny.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 98%
Metacritic: 94
“Poor Things” (Searchlight)
Release date: January 12, 2024
Director: Yorgos Lanthimos
Writer: Tony McNamara
Cast: Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo, Willem Dafoe, Ramy Yousseff
Plot: “The incredible tale about the fantastical evolution of Bella Baxter, a young woman brought back to life by the brilliant and unorthodox scientist Dr. Godwin Baxter.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 93%
Metacritic: 86
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony)
Release date: June 2, 2023
Director: Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, and Justin K. Thompson
Writer: Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, and Dave Callaham
Cast: Shameik Moore, Hailee Steinfeld, Brian Tyree Henry, Oscar Isaac
Plot: “Miles Morales catapults across the Multiverse, where he encounters a team of Spider-People charged with protecting its very existence. When the heroes clash on how to handle a new threat, Miles must redefine what it means to be a hero.”
Rotten Tomatoes: 96%
Metacritic Score: 86
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Release date: December 8, 2023
Director: Jonathan Glazer
Writer: Jonathan Glazer
Cast: Sandra Hüller, Christian Friedel, Medusa Knopf, Daniel Holzberg
Plot: “The commandant of Auschwitz, Rudolf H?ss, and his wife Hedwig, strive to build a dream life for their family in a house and garden next to the camp.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: TBD
Metacritic: TBD
STRONG CONTENDERS
“A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)
Release date: March 31, 2023
Director: A.V. Rockwell
Writer: A.V. Rockwell
Cast: Teyana Taylor, Will Catlett, Terri Abney, Josiah Cross
Plot: “After unapologetic and fiercely loyal Inez kidnaps her son Terry from the foster care system, mother and son set out to reclaim their sense of home, identity, and stability, in a rapidly changing New York City.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 96%
Metacritic Score: 81
“Air” (Amazon/Warner Bros.)
Release date: April 5, 2023
Director: Ben Affleck
Writer: Alex Convery
Cast: Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, Jason Bateman, Viola Davis
Plot: “Follows the history of sports marketing executive Sonny Vaccaro, and how he led Nike in its pursuit of the greatest athlete in the history of basketball, Michael Jordan.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 92%
Metacritic Score: 73
“Are You There God? It’s me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
Release date: April 28, 2023
Director: Kelly-Fremon Craig
Writer: Kelly-Fremon Craig
Cast: Rachel McAdams, Kathy Bates, Benny Safdie, Abby Ryder Fortson
Plot: “When her family moves from the city to the suburbs, 11-year-old Margaret navigates new friends, feelings, and the beginning of adolescence.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 99%
Metacritic: 84
“Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
Release date: June 16, 2023
Director: Wes Anderson
Writer: Wes Anderon and Roman Coppola
Cast: Jason Schwartzman, Scarlett Johansson, Tom Hanks, Jeffrey Wright
Plot: “Following a writer on his world famous fictional play about a grieving father who travels with his tech-obsessed family to small rural Asteroid City to compete in a junior stargazing event, only to have his world view disrupted forever.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 74%
Metacritic: 74
“The Iron Claw” (A24)
Release date: December 22, 2023
Director: Sean Durkin
Writer: Sean Durkin
Cast: Zac Efron, Lily James, Jeremy Allen White, Harris Dickinson, Maura Tierney
Plot: “The true story of the inseparable Von Erich brothers, who made history in the intensely competitive world of professional wrestling in the early 1980s.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 88%
Metacritic: 74
“The Killer” (Netflix)
Release date: October 27, 2023
Director: David Fincher
Writer: Andrew Kevin Walker
Cast: Michael Fassbender, Charles Parnell, Tilda Swinton, Arliss Howard
Plot: “After a fateful near-miss an assassin battles his employers, and himself, on an international manhunt he insists isn’t personal.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 88%
Metacritic: 74
“May December” (Netflix)
Release date: November 17, 2023
Director: Todd Haynes
Writer: Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
Cast: Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, Charles Melton, Piper Curda
Plot: “Twenty years after their notorious tabloid romance gripped the nation, a married couple buckles under the pressure when an actress arrives to do research for a film about their past.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 91%
Metacritic: 85
“Rustin” (Netflix)
Release date: November 3, 2023
Director: George C. Wolfe
Writer: Julian Breece and Dustin Lance Black
Cast: Colman Domingo, Chris Rock, Glynn Turman, Aml Ameen
Plot: “Gay civil rights activist Bayard Rustin organized the 1963 March on Washington.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 85%
Metacritic: 69
“Saltburn” (Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer)
Release date: November 24, 2023
Director: Emerald Fennell
Writer: Emerald Fennell
Cast: Barry Keoghan, Jacob Elordi, Rosamund Pike, Richard E. Grant
Plot: “A college student develops an infatuation with a charismatic classmate, who invites him to meet his aristocratic but eccentric family over the summer.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 72%
Metacritic: 61
POSSIBLE CONTENDERS
“Beau is Afraid” (A24)
Release date: April 14, 2021
Director: Ari Aster
Writer: Ari Aster
Cast: Joaquin Phoenix, Patti LuPone, Amy Ryan, Nathan Lane
Plot: “Following the sudden death of his mother, a mild-mannered but anxiety-ridden man confronts his darkest fears as he embarks on an epic, Kafkaesque odyssey back home.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 67%
Metacritic Score: 63
“Creed III” (Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer)
Release date: March 3, 2023
Director: Michael B. Jordan
Writer: Ryan Coogler, Keenan Coogler, and Zach Baylin
Cast: Michael B. Jordan, Jonathan Majors, Tessa Thompson, Wood Harris
Plot: “Adonis has been thriving in both his career and family life, but when a childhood friend and former boxing prodigy resurfaces, the face-off is more than just a fight.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 88%
Metacritic Score: 73
“Elemental” (Disney)
Release date: June 16, 2023
Director: Peter Sohn
Writer: Peter Sohn, John Hoberg, Kat Likkel, and Brenda Hsueh
Cast: Leah Lewis, Mamoudou Athie, Ronnie del Carmen, Catherine O’Hara
Plot: “Follows Ember and Wade, in a city where fire-, water-, land- and air-residents live together.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 74%
Metacritic: 58
“Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant” (Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer)
Release date: April 21, 2023
Director: Guy Ritchie
Writer: Guy Ritchie, Ivan Atkinson, and Marn Davies
Cast: Jake Gyllenhaal, Dar Salim, Jason Wong, Johnny Lee Miller
Plot: “During the war in Afghanistan, a local interpreter risks his own life to carry an injured sergeant across miles of grueling terrain.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 84%
Metacritic Score: 63
“Indiana Jone and the Dial of Destiny” (Disney)
Release date: June 30, 2023
Director: James Mangold
Writer: James Mangold, Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth, and David Koepp
Cast: Harrison Ford, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Mads Mikkelsen, Antonio Banderas
Plot: “Archaeologist Indiana Jones races against time to retrieve a legendary artifact that can change the course of history.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 69%
Metacritic Score: 57
“Infinity Pool” (Elevation Pictures)
Release date: January 22, 2023
Director: Brandon Cronenberg
Writer: Brandon Cronenberg
Cast: Alexander Skarsg?rd, Mia Goth, Cleopatra Coleman, Jalil Lespert
Plot: “James and Em Foster are enjoying an all-inclusive beach vacation in the fictional island of La Tolqa, when a fatal accident exposes the resort’s perverse subculture of hedonistic tourism, reckless violence and surreal horrors.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 87%
Metacritic Score: 72
“John Wick: Chapter Four” (Lionsgate)
Release date: March 24, 2023
Director: Chad Stahelski
Writer: Shay Hatten and Michael Finch
Cast: Keanu Reeves, Donnie Yen, Bill Skarsg?rd, Laurence Fishburne
Plot: “John Wick uncovers a path to defeating The High Table. But before he can earn his freedom, Wick must face off against a new enemy with powerful alliances across the globe and forces that turn old friends into foes.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 94%
Metacritic Score: 78
“Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount)
Release date: July 12, 2023
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Writer: Christopher McQuarrie and Erik Jendresen
Cast: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Ving Rhames, Simon Pegg
Plot: “Ethan Hunt and his IMF team must track down a dangerous weapon before it falls into the wrong hands.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 96%
Metacritic: 81
“Napoleon” (Apple/Columbia)
Release date: November 22, 2023
Director: Ridley Scott
Writer: David Scarpa
Cast: Joaquin Phoenix, Vanessa Kirby, Tahar Rahim, Ben Miles
Plot: “The film takes a personal look at Napoleon Bonaparte‘s origins, and his swift, ruthless climb to emperor viewed through the prism of his addictive, and often volatile, relationship with his wife and one true love, Josephine.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 58%
Metacritic: 64
“Nimona” (Netflix)
Release date: June 23, 2023
Director: Nick Bruno and Troy Quane
Writer: Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Robert L. Baird, Lloyd Taylor, Pamela Ribon, Marc Haimes, and Keith Bunin
Cast: Chlo? Grace Moretz, Riz Ahmed, Eugene Lee Yang, Frances Conroy
Plot: “When a knight in a futuristic medieval world is framed for a crime he didn’t commit, the only one who can help him prove his innocence is Nimona — a mischievous teen who happens to be a shapeshifting creature he’s sworn to destroy.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 93%
Metacritic Score: 75
“Tetris” (Apple)
Release date: March 31, 2023
Director: Jon S. Baird
Writer: Noah Pink
Cast: Taron Egerton, Nikita Yefremov, Sofia Lebedeva, Anthony Boyle
Plot: “The story of how one of the world’s most popular video games found its way to players around the globe. Businessman Henk Rogers and Tetris inventor Alexey Pajitnov join forces in the USSR, risking it all to bring Tetris to the masses.”
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 82%
Metacritic Score: 61
DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums
Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?
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