2024 SAG Awards Winner Predictions: Barbie, Oppenheimer

Update (Feb. 23): As of 12 p.m. PT, the final voting for the winners of the Screen Actors Guild Awards has officially closed. The winners will be announced during the 30th annual SAG Awards ceremony, airing live on Saturday, Feb. 24 on Netflix.

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After engaging in numerous conversations with SAG-AFTRA members and Academy voters over the past week, I’ve made a pivotal decision to revise my prediction for best female actor in a leading role. Initially, I leaned towards Lily Gladstone in “Killers of the Flower Moon,” but now I’m inclined towards Emma Stone in “Poor Things.” While either can win, as this awards season nears its big finale, it appears that Stone is gaining even more momentum and distancing herself from the competition.

Interestingly (and perhaps foolishly), I’m also leveraging the SAG Awards to assist in determining the winner for the Oscars’ best adapted screenplay, which has become a tightly contested race. If “Barbie” clinches the ensemble award, as I anticipate it might, it could sway my prediction towards Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s script, especially considering the Academy’s potential inclination. Conversely, if “American Fiction” secures the ensemble win (a plausible scenario), it would solidify Cord Jefferson’s frontrunner position, especially after receiving BAFTA and CCA, with a probable USC Scripter prize looming next week. As for “Oppenheimer,” should it claim victory in three SAG categories—ensemble, actor (Cillian Murphy), and supporting actor (Robert Downey Jr.)—I could envision Christopher Nolan enjoying a triumphant three-Oscar-trophy evening to go along with best picture and director.

However, it’s important to note that these are mere speculations, influenced by some last-minute jitters prompted by discussions with voters, many of whom have been sharing their anonymous insights. Final Oscar voting concludes on Feb. 27.

Awards Circuit Column: Will Bradley Cooper, Lily Gladstone and “Barbie” become Oscar winners?

That may hinge on the decisions of more than 120,000 SAG-AFTRA members, who could determine who gets to deliver acceptance speeches and who is forced to applaud with plastic smiles on their faces when the Academy Awards take place next month.

With final Oscar voting starting Feb. 22, the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which air on Feb. 24, are shaping up to be the final battleground for several contenders once considered frontrunners in the race for awards season glory. In a showdown between Warner Bros. and Universal Pictures, Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” and Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” lead the tally with four nominations each. They’re neck and neck in two categories: cast ensemble and supporting actor, where Ryan Gosling faces off against Robert Downey Jr. The summer blockbuster titans are also in a fight for the top ensemble honor.

“Oppenheimer” seems to have the edge on Oscar night, but SAG plays by its own rules. The sting of Oscar snubs can sway the guild’s picks, as seen with Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”) and Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”), who snagged SAG Awards without Oscar nods. Gerwig’s exclusion from the Oscars’ directing category has rallied support for “Barbie,” possibly propelling it to SAG dominance. Yet, a victory here doesn’t predict Oscar gold (or in this case, ceramic bronze), especially for a film as genre-defying as “Barbie.”

Meanwhile, “Oppenheimer” has been an unstoppable force, with Downey sweeping the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and BAFTA awards. Gosling’s hilarious portrait of dimwitted Ken is Downey’s toughest competition, but if the “Oppenheimer” star scores at SAG, he should probably expect to hear his name called on Oscar night. History tells us that snagging the four major televised awards almost always spells Oscar success. There’s one exception — Russell Crowe, who pulled that off with “A Beautiful Mind,” only to watch Denzel Washington crowned best actor for “Training Day” at the Academy Awards.

The race for best actor remains fiercely competitive, with Cillian Murphy’s BAFTA win putting him in direct contention with Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”), who has Globe and CCA wins in his pocket. Giamatti, admired for his role as a cantankerous teacher, brings a mix of gravitas, charm — and precedent — to the fray, having won a SAG Award for “Cinderella Man.” Will this be the year the veteran character actor gets his due?

Lily Gladstone, despite a trophy case overflowing with critics awards for her turn in “Killers of the Flower Moon,” faces her moment of truth at SAG, especially following a BAFTA snub. With only a Golden Globe to her name from the televised ceremonies, Gladstone may not be able to fend off “Poor Things” star Emma Stone, whose go-for-broke performance has many fans. It’s worth noting that Gladstone represents the best chance for “Killers of the Flower Moon” to avoid an Oscars shutout, despite its 10 nominations — a fate that befell two previous Martin Scorsese pictures, “Gangs of New York” and “The Irishman.” The Oscars seem to prefer nominating Scorsese’s films to awarding them.

And nobody is stopping Da’Vine Joy Randolph. “The Holdovers” star is the one acting lock for the Oscars. Remember though, anything can happen with SAG. After all, Jamie Lee Curtis wasn’t expected to win an Oscar until the “Everything Everywhere All at Once” star was recognized by the actors guild. Nobody should be feeling too secure

Read Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

(Updated Feb. 23, 2024)

Film Categories

Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

And The Nominees Are:

1. “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

2. “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

3. “American Fiction” (MGM)

4. “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

5. “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

Will Win: “Barbie”
Could Win: “Oppenheimer”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Air”

Last five winners: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24); “CODA” (Apple Original Films); “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix); “Parasite” (Neon); “Black Panther” (Marvel Studios)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Male Actor in a Leading Role

And The Nominees Are:

1. Paul Giamatti as Paul Hunham
   “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

2. Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer
   “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

3. Jeffrey Wright as Thelonious “Monk” Ellison
   “American Fiction” (MGM)

4. Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein
   “Maestro” (Netflix)

5. Colman Domingo as Bayard Rustin
   “Rustin” (Netflix)

Will Win: Paul Giamatti
Could Win: Cillian Murphy
Should Have Been Nominated: Andrew Scott, “All of Us Strangers”

Last five winners: Brendan Fraser, “The Whale” (A24); Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros.); Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix); Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker” (Warner Bros.); Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody” (Paramount Pictures)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Female Actor in a Leading Role

And The Nominees Are:

1. Emma Stone as Bella Baxter
   “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

2. Lily Gladstone as Mollie Kyle
   “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

3. Margot Robbie as Barbie
   “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

4. Annette Bening as Diana Nyad
   “Nyad” (Netflix)

5. Carey Mulligan as Felicia Montealegre
   “Maestro” (Netflix)

Will Win: Emma Stone
Could Win: Lily Gladstone
Should Have Been Nominated: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, “Origin”

Last five winners: Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24); Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures); Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix); Renée Zellweger, “Judy” (LD Entertainment and Roadside Attractions); Glenn Close, “The Wife” (Sony Pictures Classics)

**an original version of this story predicted Lily Gladstone.

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Male Actor in a Supporting Role

And The Nominees Are:

1. Robert Downey Jr. as Lewis Strauss
   “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

2. Ryan Gosling as Ken
   “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

3. Sterling K. Brown as Cliff
   “American Fiction” (MGM)

4. Willem Dafoe as Dr. Godwin Baxter
   “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

5. Robert De Niro as William King Hale
   “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr
Could Win: Ryan Gosling
Should Have Been Nominated: John Magaro, “Past Lives”

Last five winners: Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24); Troy Kotsur, “CODA” (Apple Original Films); Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros.); Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood” (Sony Pictures); Mahershala Ali, “Green Book” (Universal Pictures)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Female Actor in a Supporting Role

And The Nominees Are:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph as Mary Lamb
   “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

2. Emily Blunt as Katherine “Kitty” Oppenheimer
   “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

3. Danielle Brooks as Sofia
   “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

4. Jodie Foster as Bonnie
   “Nyad” (Netflix)

5. Penélope Cruz as Laura Ferrari
   “Ferrari” (Neon)

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Could Win: Emily Blunt
Should Have Been Nominated: Laurie Metcalf, “Somewhere in Queens”

Last five winners: Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24); Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios); Yuh-jung Youn, “Minari” (A24); Laura Dern, “Marriage Story” (Netflix); Emily Blunt, “A Quiet Place” (Paramount Pictures)

Oscars category page with rankings>>>

Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

And The Nominees Are:

1. “John Wick: Chapter 4” (Lionsgate)

2. “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)

3. “Guadians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)

4. “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

5. “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Will Win: “John Wick: Chapter 4”
Could Win: “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Blue Beetle”

Last five winners: “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures); “No Time to Die” (MGM/United Artists Releasing); “Wonder Woman 1984” (Warner Bros.); “Avengers: Endgame” (Marvel Studios); “Black Panther” (Marvel Studios)

TV Categories

Cast Ensemble in a Drama Series

And The Nominees Are:

1. “Succession” (Max)

2. “The Last of Us” (Max)

3. “The Crown” (Netflix)

4. “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)

5. “The Gilded Age” (Max)

Will Win: “Succession”
Could Win: “The Last of Us”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Yellowjackets”

Last five winners: “The White Lotus” (2022); “Succession” (2021); “The Crown” (2020); “The Crown” (2019); “This Is Us” (2018)

Cast Ensemble in a Comedy Series

And The Nominees Are:

1. “The Bear” (FX)

2. “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

3. “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)

4. “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

5. “Barry” (Max)

Will Win: “The Bear”
Could Win: “Abbott Elementary”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Shrinking”

Last five winners: “Abbott Elementary” (2022); “Ted Lasso” (2021); “Schitt’s Creek” (2020); “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (2019); “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (2018)

Male Actor in a Drama Series

And The Predicted Nominees Are:

1. Kieran Culkin as Roman Roy
   “Succession” (Max)

2. Pedro Pascal as Joel
   “The Last of Us” (Max)

3. Matthew Macfadyen as Tom Wambsgans
   “Succession” (Max)

4. Brian Cox as Logan Roy
   “Succession” (Max)

5. Billy Crudup as Cory Ellison
   “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)

Will Win: Kieran Culkin
Could Win: Pedro Pascal
Should Have Been Nominated: Jeremy Strong

Last five winners: Jason Bateman, “Ozark” (2022); Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game” (2021); Jason Bateman, “Ozark” (2020); Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones” (2019); Jason Bateman, “Ozark” (2018)

Male Actor in a Comedy Series

And The Nominees Are:

1. Jeremy Allen White as Carmen Berzatto
   “The Bear” (FX)

2. Jason Sudeikis as Ted Lasso
   “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)

3. Bill Hader as Barry Berkman
   “Barry” (Max)

4. Ebon Moss-Bachrach as Richard “Richie” Jerimovich
   “The Bear” (FX)

5. Brett Goldstein as Roy Kent
   “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)

Will Win: Jeremy Allen White
Could Win: Jason Sudeikis
Should Have Been Nominated: James Marsden, “Jury Duty”

Last five winners: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (2022), Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso” (2021), Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso” (2020), Tony Shalhoub, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (2019), Tony Shalhoub, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (2018)

Male Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series

And The Nominees Are:

1. Steven Yeun as Danny Cho
   “Beef” (Netflix)

2. Jon Hamm as Roy Tillman
   “Fargo” (FX)

3. Tony Shalhoub as Adrian Monk
   “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Paramount+)

4. David Oyelowo as Bass Reeves
   “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+)

5. Matt Bomer as Hawkins Fuller
   “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)

Will Win: Steven Yeun
Could Win: Jon Hamm
Should Have Been Nominated: Sam Claflin

Last five winners: Sam Elliott, “1883” (2022); Michael Keaton, “Dopesick” (2021); Mark Ruffalo, “I Know This Much is True” (2020); Sam Rockwell, “Fosse/Verdon” (2019); Darren Criss, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (2018)

Female Actor in a Drama Series

And The Nominees Are:

1. Sarah Snook as Siobhan “Shiv” Roy
   “Succession” (Max)

2. Bella Ramsey as Ellie
   “The Last of Us” (Max)

3. Jennifer Aniston as Alexandra Levy
   “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)

4. Elizabeth Debicki as Princess Diana
   “The Crown” (Netflix)

5. Keri Russell as Kate Wyler
   “The Diplomat” (Netflix)

Will Win: Sarah Snook
Could Win: Bella Ramsey
Should Have Been Nominated: Sophie Nélisse, “Yellowjackets”

Last five winners: Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus” (2022); HoYeon, “Squid Game” (2021); Gillian Anderson, “The Crown” (2020); Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show” (2019); Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve” (2018)

Female Actor in a Comedy Series

And The Nominees Are:

1. Ayo Edebiri as Sydney Adamu
   “The Bear” (FX)

2. Quinta Brunson as Janine Teagues
   “Abbott Elementary” (FX)

3. Rachel Brosnahan as Miriam “Midge” Maisel
   “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)

4. Hannah Waddingham as Rebecca Welton
   “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)

5. Alex Borstein as Susie Myerson
   “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)

Will Win: Ayo Edebiri
Could Win: Quinta Brunson
Should Have Been Nominated: Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building”

Last five winners: Jean Smart, “Hacks” (2022); Jean Smart, “Hacks” (2021); Catherine O’Hara, “Schitt’s Creek” (2020); Phoebe Waller-Bridge, “Fleabag” (2019); Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (2018)

Female Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series

And The Nominees Are:

1. Ali Wong as Amy Lau
   “Beef” (Netflix)

2. Kathryn Hahn as Clare Pierce
   “Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu)

3. Brie Larson as Elizabeth Zott
   “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)

4. Bel Powley as Miep Gies
   “A Small Light” (National Geographic)

5. Uzo Aduba as Edie Flowers
   “Painkiller” (Netflix)

Will Win: Ali Wong
Could Win: Kathryn Hahn
Should Have Been Nominated: Riley Keough

Last five winners: Jessica Chastain, “George & Tammy” (2022); Kate Winslet, “Mare of Easttown” (2021); Anya Taylor-Joy, “The Queen’s Gambit” (2020); Michelle Williams, “Fosse/Verdon” (2019); Patricia Arquette, “Escape at Dannemora” (2018)

Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series

And The Nominees Are:

1. “Ahsoka” (Disney+)

2. “The Last of Us” (Max)

3. “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)

4. “Beef” (Netflix)

5. “Barry” (HBO)

Will Win: “Ahsoka”
Could Win: “The Last of Us”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Gen V”

Last five winners: “Stranger Things” (2022); “Squid Game” (2021); “The Mandalorian” (2020); “Game of Thrones” (2019); “GLOW” (2018)

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