2024 VMA predictions: SZA vs. Tyla, Hozier vs. Benson Boone and yet another likely win for Taylor Swift in genre races

Jaime Rodriguez
·4 min read

The 2024 MTV Video Music Awards are scheduled for September 11, with names from Sabrina Carpenter to Lenny Kravitz to SZA all vying to take trophies home, and for some of them it would be their first VMA wins at that. Let’s break down some of the genre categories below to try to see who stands the best chances of winning.

SEEVMA records that could be broken this year: Taylor Swift, Anitta, Eminem …

Best Pop
This category is weird this year, having no specific videos attached to the nominees. As such, it’s unclear what exactly people should be voting for. The artists themselves? Their videography this year? Regardless, there’s little reason to believe this won’t go to Taylor Swift. The pop culture icon not only has a massive fan base, but is also competing with the biggest album of the year (“The Tortured Poets Department“) and still a lot of love from her VMA sweep last year. If anyone were to upset her, it could be Sabrina Carpenter, who’s had a phenomenal year with her hits “Feather,” “Espresso” and “Please Please Please.” Carpenter could also be helped by her album “Short n’ Sweet” being released during voting, which could drive up interest in her. If you are feeling adventurous, then Carpenter is the way to go, but the safe prediction here is Swift.

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Best R&B
If this were purely based on Billboard Hot 100 success, then the clear winner here would be SZA for her Grammy-winning hit “Snooze.” The song peaked at number-two on the Hot 100 and rocked R&B radio for months, making it one of the biggest hits of all time in that format. There’s also Tyla, though, with her Afrobeats hit “Water,” which was also a top-10 hit and could attract a lot of younger voters. But considering this same Tyla video is nominated in another, less competitive category (Best Afrobeats), most people will probably choose to award her there while checking off another favorite like SZA here.

There’s also the possibility of a win for Victoria Monét, whose “On My Mama” was a big hit last year. Monét also has a redemption narrative after the show passed her over last year for a performance spot, telling the star that she was “too early in her story.” This resulted in backlash for MTV, so a lot of fans might vote for Monét precisely to show them that she is, in fact, a star big enough for the VMAs. I’m still banking on SZA, though, just because of how massively successful she has been. This would be her second win in the category after taking the VMA home last year for “Shirt.”

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Best Alternative
There are three smash hits nominated here. Perhaps the biggest is Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things,” which is going to be bolstered by Boone’s substantial online fan base. The singer-songwriter is also going on tour with Taylor Swift, which could get more fans to vote for him. Another major hit here is Teddy Swims’s “Lose Control,” the soulful hit that topped the Hot 100. Swims does have less exposure than Boone in terms of younger fans (who are the main voting demographic for the VMAs). However, the song is big enough to win just based on its popularity. Last but not least is Hozier’s “Too Sweet,” another chart-topping smash which could be helped by Hozier’s more established status and fandom in the industry; he’s been making hits for 10 years at this point. I expect that to be enough for him to take this category, marking his first VMA. That said, don’t be shocked if one of the new guys takes it instead.

Best Rock
There’s no big crossover hit here, so this award will come down to which fans of these veteran acts go out of their way to vote. This is why I think Coldplay might be the one to take it, probably having the largest fan base here and, most importantly, the youngest one. Plus, “Feelslikeimfallinginlove” has been a modest hit for the band, rising on the pop and rock radio charts at the moment and being the only song nominated here to hit the Hot 100. If they were to lose, it might be to Green Day’s “Dilemma,” which topped rock and alternative radio. That said, Coldplay might achieve the win here pretty easily. If they do, they’ll become the second most awarded act ever in the category with three wins, just one away from record-holder Aerosmith.

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