2024 VMA predictions: Taylor Swift must fight off Ariana Grande and Sabrina Carpenter for top 2 awards of the night

Jaime Rodriguez
·3 min read
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With the VMAs right around the corner, it’s time to wrap up our predictions analyses with the two biggest categories of the night. Artist of the Year has been awarded to some of the century’s most influential artists like Bad Bunny, Ariana Grande and Ed Sheeran. As for Video of the Year, the show’s top award, it’s one of the highest honors in the music industry, honoring iconic visuals throughout the years from the likes of Beyoncé, Rihanna, Madonna and Green Day, among many other legends.

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Artist of the Year
There is good reason to believe this will be a three way race between Sabrina Carpenter, Taylor Swift, and Ariana Grande. I think Grande will fare better in other categories since her hype is more concentrated on her video for “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)” as opposed to her artistry as a whole, so I’ll rule her out first. Between Swift and Carpenter, I think it should definitely go to the latter. She has had a bigger year, and she hasn’t won this award yet, which matters because we’ve never seen anyone repeat since the category was introduced in 2017.

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Of course, if anyone could break that record, it’s Swift. She has also had a strong year with her blockbuster album “The Tortured Poets Department,” although Carpenter’s “Short n’ Sweet” has since debuted on top of it. Since voting has taken place during the peak of Carpenter’s era, in addition to the fact that she’s just been so ubiquitous, I’m predicting her to take the award, especially as MTV will probably want to shake things up a bit from the Swift frenzy of last year.

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Video of the Year
Listen, it’s very likely that the VMAs turn into the “Taylor show” once again. Swift has a rabid fan base and, while “The Tortured Poets Department” has arguably not captured the zeitgeist in the same way “Midnights” did, I’m sure MTV would still love to attract all that Swiftie attention. Hence, don’t be surprised if this goes to Swift and Post Malone’s “Fortnight.”

That said, I do think there are two people here who could give Swift a run for her money. The most obvious is Grande for “We Can’t Be Friends.” She has a sizable fan base of her own, and unlike “Fortnight,” her video nominated here is actually well loved beyond her core fans, mostly due to how emotional it is. This could play a huge part in attracting votes from normies who aren’t single-minded in their dedication to one fandom, resulting in a win for Grande, who has never taken this prize home before.

The second major competitor for Swift is rap legend Eminem with his controversial “Houdini.” While Eminem might seem to be too much of a veteran to win against younger, more contemporary artists, his fan base is both young and old, which could help him out big time. Plus, the rapper stands out as the only male and only non-pop artist in the lineup, which could prevent vote-splitting.

I’m going with Swift here, but with Grande just behind, as I imagine the VMAs would want to switch things up; if Swift wins, it’ll be her third in a row (and fifth win overall), which might be too much, even for MTV. Plus, it would be a treat for them to get Grande to attend, especially amidst the rollout for both her new album and the upcoming “Wicked” film.

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