2025 Grammy nominations predictions: Official odds in big four categories
The 2025 Grammy nominations will be announced tomorrow, November 8, starting at 7:45am Pacific/10:45am Eastern in a live webcast that can be streamed at live.grammy.com. But who will actually make the cut? Thousands of Gold Derby users have spent months predicting the nominations and winners in the big four general field races: Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist. Those predictions have been combined to generate our official racetrack odds. Scroll down to see those odds, with our projected winners highlighted in gold.
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Across the big four categories, only one artist is projected for noms across the board: Chappell Roan. The breakout star is favored to win Best New Artist in what could be a close race against Sabrina Carpenter. She’s also a strong bet for Album of the Year for “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess,” while her standalone single “Good Luck, Babe!” will likely get her into Record and Song of the Year races.
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As for Carpenter, she’s a strong possibility for the big four, but isn’t among the top eight contenders in every race. She’ll put up a fight to win New Artist and Record of the Year for “Espresso,” but we have her “Short n’ Sweet” only barely making the cut for Album of the Year, and “Please Please Please” actually ranks 10th in our odds for Song of the Year, perhaps because our users had been expecting her to submit “Espresso” to both awards races.
Other acts who are already established aren’t eligible for Best New Artist this year so they can’t run the board, but they’ll nevertheless max out on their possible nominations in the general field. Among them are Billie Eilish, Beyonce, and Taylor Swift, who are actually tied with 11/2 odds as front-runners for Album of the Year. Swift is actually the defending champion in the category, having won it earlier this year for a record fourth time for “Midnights,” so she must never be underestimated.
Ariana Grande is the only other artist predicted for Album, Record, and Song bids, but for her it’s a close call. Her “Eternal Sunshine” ranks seventh for Album, while “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)” is sixth for Record and seventh for Song. She has only competed in the general field a couple of times in her career thus far, securing Album and Record of the Year noms for her “Thank U, Next” era.
Who do you think will be nominated? You can keep making or updating your predictions in the big four races here in our predictions center right up until the nominations announcement begins.
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ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Billie Eilish, “Hit Me Hard and Soft” — 11/2
Beyonce, “Cowboy Carter” — 11/2
Taylor Swift, “The Tortured Poets Department” — 11/2
Chappell Roan, “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess” — 17/2
Charli XCX,, “Brat” — 23/2
Vampire Weekend, “Only God Was Above Us” — 14/1
Ariana Grande, “Eternal Sunshine” — 15/1
Sabrina Carpenter, “Short n’ Sweet” — 18/1
RECORD OF THE YEAR
Beyonce, “Texas Hold ‘Em” — 6/1
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso” — 6/1
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” — 7/1
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!” — 10/1
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us” — 11/1
Ariana Grande, “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)” — 11/1
Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone, “Fortnight” — 13/1
Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars, “Die with a Smile” — 14/1
SONG OF THE YEAR
Beyonce, “Texas Hold ‘Em” — 6/1
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” — 13/2
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!” — 17/2
Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone, “Fortnight” — 9/1
Benson Boone, “Beautiful Things” — 12/1
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us” — 12/1
Ariana Grande, “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)” — 16/1
Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars, “Die with a Smile” — 18/1
BEST NEW ARTIST
Chappell Roan — 9/2
Sabrina Carpenter — 5/1
Benson Boone — 7/1
Shaboozey — 15/2
Teddy Swims — 17/2
Sierra Ferrell — 13/1
Megan Moroney — 15/1
Raye — 15/1
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