2025 Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary Feature
Predicting the winner of the Best Documentary Feature Oscar becomes a lot easier on December 17 when the academy announces the 15 films that make the shortlist. Those semi-finalists will be culled from the more than 100 titles that qualified this year for consideration. (Scroll down for the most up-to-date 2025 Oscar predictions for Best Documentary Feature.)
To winnow those down to a manageable number, the academy adds newly eligible documentary feature to a virtual screening room available to all 500-plus members of the documentary branch. While all members are encouraged to watch as many of these as they can, one-fifth of the voters are assigned each title. Each branch member will submit a preferential ballot listing their top 15 choices.
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All of these ballots are collated to determine the 15 semi-finalists. Branch members are then encouraged to watch films on that list which they haven’t seen yet before casting another preferential ballot with their top five choices. The resulting five Documentary Feature nominees will be unveiled along with all the other Oscar categories on January 17, 2025. All academy voters can cast ballots for the winner of this race, which will be revealed during the Oscar ceremony on March 2.
To be eligible for consideration, a documentary feature usually has to first qualify with week-long runs in Los Angeles and New York City which merited reviews by film critics of leading publications or be screened at certain film festivals.
The most recent winner, “20 Days in Mariupol,” chronicled a key battle in the ongoing war in Ukraine. Other such serious fare to prevail include “Navalny” (2023), “Citizenfour” (2015), “Inside Job” (2011), “Taxi to the Dark Side” (2008), and “An Inconvenient Truth” (2007).
Among the other genres that have proved appealing to Oscar voters are films about music [“Summer of Soul” (2022), “Amy” (2016), “20 Feet From Stardom” (2014), and “Searching for Sugar Man” (2013)]; nature [“My Octopus Teacher” (2021), “The Cove” (2010), and “March of the Penguins” (2006)]; and sports [“Free Solo” (2019), “Icarus” (2018), “Undefeated” (2012), and “Man on Wire” (2009)].
UPDATED: September 30, 2024
LEADING CONTENDERS
“Apocalypse in the Tropics” (TBD)
“Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films)
“Daughters” (Netflix)
“I Am: Celine Dion” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Look Into My Eyes” (A24)
“A New Kind of Wilderness” (TBD)
““Seeking Mavis Beacon” (Neon)
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (TBD)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
“Union” (Level Ground Productions)
“Will & Harper” (Netflix)
STRONG CONTENDERS
“Frida” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Gaucho Gaucho” (TBD)
“Girls State” (Apple TV+)
“Hollywoodgate” (Fourth Act)
“The Last Republican” (TBD)
“Luther: Never Too Much” (Giant Pictures)
“No Other Land” (Cinetic Media)
“Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
“Porcelain War” (Picturehouse)
“Super/Man: The Christopher Reeves Story” (Warner Bros.)
POSSIBLE CONTENDERS
“Bread and Roses” (Apple TV+)
“Dahomey” (TBD)
“Ibelin” (Netflix)
“The Last of the Sea Women” (Apple TV+)
“Mountain Queen: The Summits of Lhakpa Sherpa” (Netflix)
“Nocturnes” (Sandbox)
“Skywalkers: A Love Story” (Netflix)
“A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things” (Conic)
“War Game” (Decal Releasing/Boat Rocker)
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