2025 Oscars Best Actress Predictions
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 3, 2024): Angelina Jolie has positioned herself as a Best Actress contender for her portrayal of famed opera singer Maria Callas in Pablo Larraín’s biopic “Maria” after bowing at Venice and Telluride.
It’s been a long time since Jolie was contending for a statuette — her last acting nomination was for 2008’s “Changeling,” and she’s spent the time since then starring in popcorn movies like “Salt” and “Maleficent” or directing films like “Unbroken.” Larraín’s film, which follows Callas in her final days, should earn Jolie another invitation to the Oscars—and place her among the frontrunners to take home a second prize to go along with the one she won for 1999’s “Girl Interrupted.” It’s the kind of role Jolie has been waiting for over 25 years, one that fully utilizes her undeniable commitment to a character. In the film’s final moments, her craft becomes physically evident: veins pulsate from her temple, and her hands arch like she’s summoning the thespian warlords to carry her through the anguish Callas may have felt in her last moments. It’s a bona fide “Oscar clip,” if ever there was one.
Four-time Oscar-nominated actor Saoirse Ronan was one of three honorees recognized at this year’s Telluride Film Festival. At 30, Ronan is already considered overdue for an Oscar by pundits and audiences alike.
However, a few factors could hinder her chances of a win in March. While Ronan’s performance is superb, the drama directed by Nora Fingscheidt about a former addict recovering in the Orkney Islands wasn’t universally adored by critics. Additionally, Ronan has an upcoming buzzworthy role in Steve McQueen’s World War II epic “Blitz” from Apple Original Films. Though early reports suggest her role is supporting, members of the Actors Branch might be more inclined to vote for her in that category, especially if “Blitz” emerges as a stronger contender across multiple Oscar categories.
If Ronan secures her fifth nomination, she will surpass Jennifer Lawrence’s record of becoming the youngest to receive four Oscar nominations, which Lawrence achieved at 25. Ronan could become the youngest to have five — or possibly six — nominations.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank | Performer & Film |
|---|---|
1 | Angelina Jolie — “Maria” (Netflix) |
2 | Saoirse Ronan — “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics) |
3 | Mikey Madison — “Anora” (Neon) |
4 | Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ** |
5 | Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) |
Next in Line
Rank | Performer & Film |
|---|---|
6 | Julianne Moore — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) ** |
7 | Demi Moore — “The Substance” (Mubi) |
8 | Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ** |
9 | Fernanda Torres — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) |
10 | June Squibb — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures) |
Other Contenders
Rank | Performer & Film |
|---|---|
11 | Amy Adams — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures) |
12 | Florence Pugh — “We Live in Time” (A24) |
13 | Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl” (A24) |
14 | Zendaya — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios) |
15 | Natasha Lyonne — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) ** |
16 | Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution) ** |
17 | Pamela Anderson — “The Last Showgirl” (No U.S. Distribution) |
18 | Kirsten Dunst — “Civil War” (A24) |
19 | Regina King — “Shirley” (Netflix) |
20 | Kerry Washington — “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) |
Also In Contention
Rank | Performer & Film |
|---|---|
21 | Robin Wright — “Here” (Sony Pictures) |
22 | Lily Gladstone — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films) |
23 | Kani Kusruti — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow) |
24 | Kate Winslet — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions) |
25 | Daisy Ridley — “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures) |
26 | Ryan Destiny — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM) |
27 | Naomi Watts — “The Friend” (No U.S. Distribution) ** |
28 | Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) ** |
29 | Moses Ingram — “The End” (Neon) ** |
30 | Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) ** |
Eligible Performers (Best Actress)
This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
** denotes could open in 2025 or compete in another category.
Kani Kusruti — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Divya Prabha — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Mikey Madison — “Anora” (Neon)
Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl” (A24)
Marisa Abela — “Back to Black” (Focus Features)
Jenna Ortega — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
Winona Ryder — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
Jodie Comer — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) **
Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) **
Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution) **
Zendaya — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)
Kirsten Dunst — “Civil War” (A24)
Vicky Krieps — “The Dead Don’t Hurt” (Shout! Studios)
Andra Day — “The Deliverance” (Netflix)
Margaret Qualley — “Drive-Away Dolls” (Focus Features)
Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) **
Zoe Salda?a — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) **
Noémie Merlant — “Emmanuelle” (Neon)
Moses Ingram — “The End” (Neon) **
Tilda Swinton — “The End” (Neon) **
Isabel DeRoy-Olson — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films) **
Lily Gladstone — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films) **
Ryan Destiny — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)
Alicia Vikander — “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions)
Brandy Norwood — “The Front Room” (A24)
Anya Taylor-Joy — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) **
Robin Wright — “Here” (Sony Pictures) **
Carrie Coon — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) **
Natasha Lyonne — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) **
Elizabeth Olsen — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) **
Adria Arjona — “Hit Man” (Netflix) **
Anne Hathaway — “The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM)
Fernanda Torres — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Blake Lively — “It Ends With Us” (Sony Pictures)
Julianne Nicholson — “Janet Planet” (A24)
Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) **
Emma Stone — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) **
Kate Winslet — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
Kristen Stewart — “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24)
Angelina Jolie — “Maria” (Netflix)
Nathalie Emmanuel — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate) **
Jessica Chastain — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
Anne Hathaway — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
Aubrey Plaza — “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM)
Amy Adams — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
Lily-Rose Depp — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Saoirse Ronan — “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Celeste Dalla Porta — “Parthenope” (A24)
Stefania Sandrelli — “Parthenope” (A24)
Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) **
Julianne Moore — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
Tilda Swinton — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
Riley Keough — “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street)
Kerry Washington — “Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
Regina King — “Shirley” (Netflix)
Carey Mulligan — “Spaceman” (Netflix) **
Demi Moore — “The Substance” (Mubi)
June Squibb — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus — “Tuesday” (A24)
Florence Pugh — “We Live in Time” (A24)
Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) **
Ariana Grande — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) **
Jessie Buckley — “Wicked Little Letters” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
Olivia Colman — “Wicked Little Letters” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
Lupita Nyong’o — “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Maya Hawke — “Wildcat” (Oscilloscope Pictures)
Anna Kendrick — “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix)
Daisy Ridley — “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures)
More Information (Oscars: Best Actress)
2024 category winner: Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
— | — |
|---|---|
Production Design | |
Cinematography | Costume Design |
Film Editing | Makeup and Hairstyling |
Sound | Visual Effects |
Original Score | Original Song |
Documentary Feature | International Feature |
Animated Short | Documentary Short |
Live Action Short | Casting (coming in 2026) |
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
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