2025 Oscars Best Original Screenplay Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay

Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 3, 2024): More to come.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

And the Predicted Nominees Are

Next in Line

Other Contenders

Eligible Writers (Best Original Screenplay)

** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.

• “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow) — Payal Kapadia

• “Anora” (Neon) — Sean Baker

• “The Apprentice” (No U.S. Distribution) — Gabriel Sherman **

• “Babygirl” (A24) — Halina Reijn

• “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) — Michael Gracey, Oliver Cole, Simon Gleeson

• “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Nathan Silver, C. Mason Wells

• “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) — Jeff Nichols

• “Bird” (Mubi) — Andrea Arnold

• “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM) — Zo? Kravitz, E.T. Feigenbaum

• “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Steve McQueen

• “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) — Terence Winter, Frank E. Flowers, Zach Baylin, Reinaldo Marcus Green

• “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution) — Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold

• “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) — Justin Kuritzkes

• “Civil War” (A24) — Alex Garland

• “Daddio” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Christy Hall

• “The Deb” (No U.S. Distribution) — Hannah Reilly, Rebel Wilson **

• “The Deliverance” (Netflix) — David Coggeshall, Elijah Bynum

• “A Different Man” (A24) — Aaron Schimberg

• “Dìdi” (Focus Features) — Sean Wang

• “Echo Valley” (Apple Original Films) — Brad Inglesby **

• “Eden” (No U.S. Distribution) — Noah Pink **

• “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — Jacques Audiard **

• “The End” (Neon) — Joshua Oppenheimer, Rasmus Heisterberg

• “Evil Does Not Exist” (Sideshow) — Ryusuke Hamaguchi

• “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films) — Erica Tremblay, Miciana Alise

• “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow) — Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Ka?a

• “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) — Mike Leigh

• “Heretic” (A24) — Scott Beck, Bryan Woods

• “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) — Azazel Jacobs

• “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.) — Jon Baird, Kevin Costner, Mark Kasdan

• “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24) — Jane Schoenbrun

• “IF” (Paramount Pictures) — John Krasinski

• “In the Summers” (Music Box Films) — Alessandra Lacorazza Samudio

• “Janet Planet” (A24) — Annie Baker

• “K-Pops” (No U.S. Distribution) — Anderson .Paak, Khaila Amazan **

• “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) — Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou

• “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Rich Peppiatt, Liam óg ó Hannaidh, Naoise ó Cairealláin, JJ ó Dochartaigh

• “The Last Showgirl” (No U.S. Distribution) — Kate Gersten **

• “Longlegs” (Neon) — Osgood Perkins

• “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24) — Rose Glass, Weronika Tofilska

• “Maria” (No U.S. Distribution) — Steven Knight **

• “Meet the Barbarians” (No U.S. Distribution) — Julie Delpy, Matthieu Rumani, Nicolas Slomka **

• “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate) — Francis Ford Coppola

• “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films) — Adam Elliot

• “Millers in Marriage” (No U.S. Distribution) — Edward Burns **

• “Misericordia” (Janus Films) — Alain Guiraudie **

• “Monkey Man” (Universal Pictures) — Dev Patel, Paul Angunawela, John Collee

• “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM) — Megan Park

• “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl” (A24) — Rungano Nyoni

• “Parthenope” (A24) — Paolo Sorrentino

• “Quisling – The Final Days” (No U.S. Distribution) — Anna Bache-Wiig, Ravn Lanesskog, Siv Rajendram Eliassen **

• “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jesse Eisenberg

• “Relay” (No U.S. Distribution) — Justin Piasecki **

• “Riff Raff” (No U.S. Distribution) — John Pollono **

• “Rumours” (Bleecker Street) — Guy Maddin, Evan Johnson, Galen Johnson

• “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street) — David Zellner

• “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) — Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman

• “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon) — Mohammad Rasoulof

• “Shirley” (Netflix) — John Ridley

• “The Shrouds” (No U.S. Distribution) — David Cronenberg **

• “Spellbound” (Netflix) — Lauren Hynek, Elizabeth Martin, Julia Miranda

• “Stopmotion” (IFC/Shudder) — Robert Morgan, Robin King

• “The Substance” (Mubi) — Coralie Fargeat

• “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures) — Josh Margolin

• “Tuesday” (A24) — Daina O. Pusi?

• “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Minhal Baig

• “We Live in Time” (A24) — Nick Payne

• “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix) — Ian MacAllister McDonald

More Information (Oscars: Best Original Screenplay)

2024 category winner: “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — Arthur Harari & Justine Triet

2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)

• Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024

• General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024

• Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024

• Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.

• Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.

• Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024

• Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024

• Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.

• Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.

• Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025

• Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025

• Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT

• Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT

• Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025

• 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025

Oscars Prediction Categories

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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