2025 Oscars Best Supporting Actor Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

More from Variety

• Will 'The Room Next Door' Bring Pedro Almodóvar His First Best Picture Nomination and Tilda Swinton's Second Oscar?

• 'The Fire Inside' Sparks Oscar Buzz for Brian Tyree Henry at TIFF; Boxer Claressa Shields and Coach Jason Crutchfield Make Surprise Appearances

• International Oscar Race: Morocco Picks Nabil Ayouch's 'Everybody Loves Touda'

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actor

Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 3, 2024): With a cast of more than 20 actors who deliver outstanding performances in their respective roles, “Saturday Night” is in the running for one of the five slots for the best-cast ensemble at the SAG Awards. However, Sony Pictures will need one of the actors nominated if they want any best picture-winning chances.

Gabriel LaBelle, who broke out as the young Steven Spielberg in the 2022 drama “The Fabelmans,” is electric as legendary producer and “SNL” creator Lorne Michaels. He’s arguably the film’s lead, as the camera and drama often follow Michaels from floor to floor as he deals with unhinged cast members and disgruntled craftspeople. But he may have a more substantial chance in supporting, as the lead actor category favors older, more established actors. LaBelle can go either way. Of course, he’ll face internal competition from any standouts, including Lamorne Morris, Tommy Dewey, Dylan O’Brien, Cory Michael Smith, Willem Dafoe and more.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

Samuel L. Jackson, who received a Tony nomination last year for his role as the scene-stealing Doaker Charles in “The Piano Lesson,” has his role reduced in the film version. While the Oscar-nominated veteran actor (“Pulp Fiction”) has a memorable presence and gets to deliver some one-liners and zingers, it’s his co-star Ray Fisher, playing John David Washington’s friend, who pops on screen. At Telluride, many attendees praised Fisher’s turn, and as more discover it, his performance could put him in the supporting actor race, which is light on contenders so far. Jackson’s praise wasn’t as prominent based on the initial reactions. Will it cost Jackson, or can it help both men make the lineup?

The Denzel Washington lingering question of whether he’ll go lead or support for his standout role in “Gladiator II” remains a mystery. A two-time Oscar winner for “Glory” and “Training Day,” he arguably should have two more statues on his mantle for “Malcolm X” and “Fences.” Said to be the villain in the story and a role that can “go either way” regarding its campaigning. If Washington chose the leading route, this could mimic “Amadeus” (1984), which didn’t choose to divide its stars, getting both Tom Hulce as the titular character and eventual winner F. Murray Abraham recognized in best actor. In this presumed scenario, Washington represents Abraham with Mescal as Hulce.

Noteworthy: After watching the Academy vote over several decades, the road to a third Academy Award is not always easy. Only seven actors have won three or more acting statuettes — Katharine Hepburn, Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson, Ingrid Bergman, Daniel Day-Lewis, Frances McDormand and Walter Brennan. Only Bergman (1974’s “Murder on the Orient Express”) and Brennan (1940’s “The Westerner”) won their third statuettes in supporting. Being seen as a leading man his entire career can sometimes make a difference between winning or losing. I think that was the deciding factor for Tom Cruise’s colossal loss for “Magnolia” or why Robert DeNiro (“Silver Linings Playbook”) couldn’t manage to pull it off.

It’s just food for thought.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the performer could be campaigned in lead or supporting, and/or the film could open in 2025.

And the Predicted Nominees Are

Next in Line

Other Contenders

Also In Contention

Eligible Performers (Best Supporting Actor)

** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.

• Yura Borisov — “Anora” (Neon)

• Mark Eydelshteyn — “Anora” (Neon)

• Jeremy Strong — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliffe Entertainment)

• Antonio Banderas — “Babygirl” (A24)

• Harris Dickinson — “Babygirl” (A24)

• Jean Reno — “Babygirl” (A24)

• Michael Keaton — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) **

• Tom Hardy — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) **

• Barry Keoghan — “Bird” (Mubi) **

• Franz Rogowski — “Bird” (Mubi) **

• Harris Dickinson — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)

• Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)

• Stephen Graham — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)

• Guy Pearce — “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution) **

• Mike Faist — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) **

• Josh O’Connor — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) **

• Wagner Moura — “Civil War” (A24)

• Jesse Plemons — “Civil War” (A24)

• Edward Norton — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)

• John Lithgow — “Conclave” (Focus Features)

• Stanley Tucci — “Conclave” (Focus Features)

• Hugh Jackman — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)

• Wesley Snipes — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)

• Channing Tatum — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)

• Adam Pearson — “A Different Man” (A24)

• Javier Bardem — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

• Josh Brolin — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

• Austin Butler — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

• Christopher Walken — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

• édgar Ramírez — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

• Michael Shannon — “The End” (Neon) **

• Shea Whigham — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films)

• Brian Tyree Henry — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)

• Jude Law — “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions) **

• Chris Hemsworth — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)

• Pedro Pascal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

• Joseph Quinn — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

• Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) **

• Paul Bettany — “Here” (Sony Pictures)

• Hugh Grant — “Heretic” (A24)

• Jovan Adepo — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)

• Jay O. Sanders — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)

• Ryan Reynolds — “IF” (Paramount Pictures)

• Brendan Gleeson — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)

• Harry Lawtey — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)

• Joe Alwyn — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Mamoudou Athie — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Willem Dafoe — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) **

• Andy Samberg — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)

• Pierfrancesco Favino — “Maria” (Netflix)

• Kodi Smit-McPhee — “Maria” (Netflix)

• Giancarlo Esposito — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)

• Shia LaBeouf — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)

• Jon Voight — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)

• Daveed Diggs — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)

• Scott McNairy — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Willem Dafoe — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)

• Bill Skarsg?rd — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)

• Aaron Taylor-Johnson — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)

• Nicholas Hoult — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)

• Paapa Essiedu — “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Gary Oldman — “Parthenope” (A24) **

• Ray Fisher — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)

• Corey Hawkins — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)

• Samuel L. Jackson — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)

• Michael Potts — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)

• Drew Starkey — “Queer” (A24) **

• Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) **

• Charlie Plummer — “The Return” (No U.S. Distribution) **

• John Turturro — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Nicholas Braun — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

• Tommy Dewey — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

• Willem Dafoe — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

• Taylor Gray — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

• Cooper Hoffman — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

• Gabriel LaBelle — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) **

• Lamorne Morris — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

• Dylan O’Brien — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

• J.K. Simmons — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

• Cory Michael Smith — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

• Matt Wood — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

• Clarence Maclin — “Sing Sing” (A24)

• Paul Raci — “Sing Sing” (A24)

• Jim Carrey — “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures)

• Dennis Quaid — “The Substance” (Mubi)

• Richard Roundtree — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)

• Jonathan Bailey — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

• Jeff Goldblum — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

• Pedro Pascal — “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

• Demián Bichir — “Without Blood” (No U.S. Distribution) **

More Information (Oscars: Best Supporting Actor)

2024 category winner: Robert Downey Jr. — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here

• Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024

• General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024

• Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024

• Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.

• Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.

• Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024

• Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024

• Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.

• Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.

• Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025

• Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025

• Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT

• Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT

• Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025

• 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025

Oscars Prediction Categories

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

Best of Variety

• Oscars Predictions 2025: 'Emilia Pérez' and 'Saturday Night' Surge After Telluride Bows; Daniel Craig and Angelina Jolie Enter the Race

• Oscar Predictions: Best Actor — Ralph Fiennes and Daniel Craig Enter the Awards Race With 'Conclave' and 'Queer'

• Oscar Predictions: Best Actress — Angelina Jolie Emerges as the Frontrunner for 'Maria' Following Venice and Telluride Premieres

Sign up for Variety's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.