2025 Oscars: Will ‘Emilia Perez’ be the next ‘Chicago’?

Crime musical wins Oscar for Best Picture! That was “Chicago” 22 years ago, and it could be “Emilia Perez” this year. There are plenty of differences between the two films — they’re in different languages, for instance — but both explore unlikely subjects through song. In “Chicago,” you got a pair of murderesses trying to beat the rap and escape the hangman’s noose. And in “Emilia Perez,” you’ve got a Mexican cartel leader undergoing a gender transition to become her true self. “Chicago” was the big winner on Oscar night. Now “Emilia Perez” ranks among our top two contenders for the prize.

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As of this writing “Perez” gets second-place odds of 17/2 in the race for Best Picture, according to the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users. But it’s not too far behind front-runner “Anora.” For instance, “Perez” has support from seven Expert journalists whom we’ve surveyed from major media outlets, which is just five fewer than are predicting “Anora” to take top honors.

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“Emilia Perez” could match “Chicago” in another way if it secures three acting nominations for its female cast, who were already feted at the Cannes Film Festival. “Chicago” picked up a Best Actress bid for Renee Zellweger and Best Supporting Actress noms for Queen Latifah and borderline-lead Catherine Zeta-Jones., winning for Zeta-Jones. Likewise, “Emilia Perez” could secure a Best Actress mention for Karla Sofia Gascon and Best Supporting Actress citations for Selena Gomez and borderline-lead Zoe Saldana, with Saldana currently tipped to win the film’s sole acting Oscar.

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In our current forecasts, Gascon ranks second for Best Actress with 9/2 odds, with six Experts betting on her to prevail. Saldana gets leading odds of 37/10 in the supporting race with support from 19 Experts. Gomez is down in seventh place with 14/1 odds, but if “Perez” does become the Best Picture front-runner, Gomez could easily go along for the ride. The good news for both Saldana and Gomez is that Best Supporting Actress has proved lucky for musical women in the past couple of decades, with Zeta-Jones, Jennifer Hudson (“Dreamgirls”), Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”), and Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”) all winning the category.

The parallels don’t end there. The night “Chicago” won Best Picture, Nicole Kidman took Best Actress for “The Hours” and Adrien Brody claimed Best Actor for “The Pianist.” Now Kidman is back in the Best Actress conversation for “Babygirl” and Brody could secure a second Best Actor trophy for “The Brutalist.” They’d make history if they win together again. It would be even more remarkable if the stars align for a musical for the first time since that fateful year as well.

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