AFM Kicks Off Amid Election Day Angst: “There’s Going to Be A Lot of Jitters”
Dean Devlin, producer of Independence Day, Godzilla and The Patriot, is used to dealing with stories that are over-the-top and apocalyptic. But even for him, the prospect of holding the AFM, the world’s biggest independent movie bazaar, in Las Vegas on the day of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election seems a bit much.
“First of all, you move AFM to Vegas, which is already, like, hmmm,” says Devlin, noting the market’s shift to Nevada this year after more than four decades in Santa Monica. “And then you do it on one of the most contentious elections in history of America.” He shakes his head in disbelief.
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Devlin’s Electric Entertainment is screening the Matt Sohn faith-based family comedy One Big Happy Family at AFM and, like the rest of the horde of indie film buyers and sellers descending on Sin City this week, he would like to focus on the movies. But the election is all anyone can talk about.
The fear and anxiety of many in Hollywood ahead of the Trump vs. Harris showdown has its echoes worldwide, with many concerned about what the election result could mean for American foreign policy — in regards to the war in Ukraine, or the crisis in the Middle East, for example — and, because these are film industry execs, what a Trump or Harris Presidency will mean for business.
“I think it’s going to be really charged emotionally for everybody, obviously, and there’s going to be a lot of jitters going into AFM,” admits one U.S. seller. “Whatever the result, there are people who are going to be unhappy, angry and upset.”
“It Trump gets in, I think it will cast a pall over things,” adds David Garrett of Mister Smith Entertainment. “But if he loses, he’s going to go down fighting, so that won’t be a tranquil outcome either.”
Independent film producers are especially concerned about what Trump, if elected, would do to the tax code. Blue state policies to boost the film industry through government incentives — like Gavin Newsom’s recently-announced plans to more than double California’s current tax break cap — could face stiff opposition if the White House turns Republican.
“We saw when Trump got elected last time, how he wanted to make New York and California suffer,” says Devlin. “This is a man who unabashedly talks about vengeance, and Hollywood has not been kind to him, in his eyes. I would suspect he would, he would wreak his revenge.”
More optimistic execs note that a more U.S.-centric trade policy, something both Trump and Harris have supported, could benefit American film production and sales if Washington takes Hollywood’s side in international negotiations involving issues from online regulation to piracy. On the flip side, international sellers could benefit if, as happened in 2016, the value of the U.S. dollar dips in the wake of a Trump victory.
“My hunch is, if Trump gets in the dollar will take a dive, which could actually be good for sales,” quipped Garrett. “So that’s something.”
AFM could come and go without providing any certainty. Polls predict a dead heat between Harris and Trump and even after Nov. 5, it could be days or weeks — longer if the results are challenged by either side — before America and the rest of the world knows who will be the 47th President of the United States. But whatever the result, expect the indie film industry to carry on.
“Whatever happens, we will always need movies and entertainment,” notes one L.A.-based sales agent. “In times of political turmoil, you see people drawn to escapism, escapist entertainment. That’s sort of our business.”
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