AI predicts the 2025 Oscars, and it’s good news for ‘Joker’ stars Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga

Gold Derby has been predicting the Oscars (and other Hollywood races) for more than two decades now. But how do our current Academy Awards predictions compare to those made by a new player in the game — artificial intelligence?

On Nov. 16, we asked Gemini, Google’s new AI, to predict the nominations in six categories for the 2025 Oscars: picture, director, lead actor, lead actress, supporting actor, and supporting actress. You can see those results below. For the uninitiated, Gemini is a chatbot “that uses machine learning and natural language processing to provide human-like responses to text, image, and audio prompts.”

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Comparatively, Gold Derby’s Oscar predictions are derived from the combined forecasts of four unique groups: experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.

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The biggest difference between the AI picks and Gold Derby’s choices is the former’s confidence for “Joker: Folie à Deux” in Best Actor for Joaquin Phoenix and in Best Actress for Lady Gaga. Gaga is actually being campaigned in Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars, but that’s beside the point. The comic book sequel’s tepid critics’ reviews and disappointing box office are a challenging hurdle for “Joker” to overcome on the upcoming awards beat. (Maybe there’s something to be said for actual vs. artificial intelligence?)

We’ll continue to update AI’s predictions throughout the campaign, and we’ll see who’s the most accurate when the envelopes are opened on March 2, 2025.

AI predictions for Best Picture:

“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Conclave”
“Anora”
“Emilia Pérez”

Gold Derby predictions: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Sing Sing,” “Wicked,” “A Real Pain,” “Gladiator II,” “Nickel Boys”

AI predictions for Best Director:

Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”)
Sean Baker (“Anora”)
Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez)”
Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”)
Coraline Fargeat (“The Substance”)

Gold Derby predictions: Corbet, Baker, Audiard, Edward Berger (“Conclave”), Villeneuve

AI predictions for Best Actor:

Timothée Chalamet (“Dune: Part Two”)
Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”)
John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”)
Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker: Folie à Deux”)
Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”)

Gold Derby predictions: Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”), Domingo, Chalamet, Daniel Craig (“Queer”)

AI predictions for Best Actress:

Angelina Jolie (“Maria”)
Lady Gaga (“Joker: Folie à Deux)”
Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”)
Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”)
Mikey Madison (“Anora”)

Gold Derby predictions: Madison, Karla Sofia Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”), Jolie, Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”)

AI predictions for Best Supporting Actor:
Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”)
Yura Borisov (“Anora”)
Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”)
Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”)
Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”)

Gold Derby predictions: Culkin, Pearce, Washington, Maclin, Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”)

AI predictions for Best Supporting Actress:

Zoe Salda?a (“Emilia Pérez”)
Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”)
Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”)
Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”)
Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”)

Gold Derby predictions: Salda?a, Deadwyler, Jones, Ariana Grande (“Wicked”), Ronan

We also asked Meta AI, which can create visual images, to show us what it would look like if some of this year’s contenders went on to win the Best Picture honor at the 2025 Oscars. Here are six of our favorite imaginary depictions.

Meta AI

Meta AI

Meta AI

Meta AI

Meta AI

Meta AI

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