In America, Summer Blockbusters Rule. Overseas, It’s a Darker Story

Led by Disney’s “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool & Wolverine,” with a big assist from Universal’s “Despicable Me 4,” this has been a terrific box-office summer. It gives real hope for the future when it was in short supply.

However, there’s a fly in the White Claw. The foreign takes are way, way down, to the point that it may force studios to reassess the budget parameters that can actually turn a profit.

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We looked at the top 10 summer grosses in the U.S./Canada for 2019, 2023, and 2024 to date (skipping the COVID-impacted 2020-2022). The results show a sharp drop in share of foreign gross even as domestic recovers.

A summer isn’t the year, but it’s the sweet spot for the most-expensive, biggest-grossing films. This summer has less than four weeks to go; none of the new releases between now and then are expected to make the top 10.

The total domestic take for summer 2024 films should reach somewhere around $2.7 billion. That would be down six percent from last year and 20 percent less than 2019 (when ticket prices were appreciably lower).

Foreign will get to around $3.1 billion, nine percent below last year. However, that number is less than half of what it was four years ago — a decrease of around $3.5 billion.

One big reason is the massive collapse of the Chinese theatrical market: Fewer films released and even fewer are hits. In 2019, “Avengers: Endgame” grossed $632 million in China; “Deadpool & Wolverine” has taken in $45 million, with not much more to come. Movies released in summer 2019 grossed $1.33 billion in China. Summer 2024 so far is $120 million.

China is the most extreme example, but Germany (including Austria and most of Switzerland) did $63 million with “Endgame”; this year the territory will contribute about $21 million for “Deadpool & Wolverine.” Overall, the domestic top 10 will gross around $150 million in Germany; in 2019, the summer titles grossed around $245 million.

Foreign audiences still watch movies, but they increasingly favor homegrown films. In France, the #1 film for the year is Artus’ “Un P’tit truc en plus” (“A Little Something Extra”), a comedy in which a father and son on the run seek refuge in a summer camp for young adults with disabilities; it’s grossed over $70 million. South Korea and Japan have strong local industries, as does India. They rebounded much more quickly post-COVID — and didn’t have to worry about strikes.

All of this impacts U.S. theaters because their recovery demands more movies, particularly the really expensive ones that usually yield the highest attendance. That becomes less likely when foreign grosses collapse.

Of particular note among this summer’s releases is “Twisters” (coproduced by Universal and Warner Bros., with Universal handling domestic, WB foreign). It’s grossed $205 million domestic, but foreign is around $80 million — less than 30 percent of the worldwide total.

With a $155 million cost before marketing, this should eke out a profit. In past years, it would have been expected to gross at least $200 million foreign and shown a nice profit. Similarly, “IF,” “The Fall Guy,” and “A Quiet Place: Day One” all saw less than half of their gross foreign.

It’s encouraging how domestic theaters have rebounded this summer, but for an accurate assessment we must include the foreign decline.

2019 Share of Total Gross U.S./Canada Foreign

“Avengers: Endgame” 31% | 69%

“The Lion King” 33% | 67%

“Toy Story 4” 40% | 60%

“Spider-Man: Far from Home” 34% | 66%

“Aladdin” 34% | 66%

“John Wick 3: Parabellum” 52% | 48%

“Hobbs & Shaw” 23% | 77%

“The Secret Life of Pets” 2 37% | 63%

“Pokemon: Detective Pikachu” 33% | 67%

“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” 38% | 62%

Average: 36% | 64%

2023 Share of Total Gross

“Barbie” 44% | 56%

“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” 45% | 55%

“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” 42% | 58%

“Oppenheimer” 34% | 66%

“The Little Mermaid” 52% | 48%

“Sound of Freedom” 73% | 27%

“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” 45% | 55%

“Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One” 30% | 70%

“Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” 36% | 64%

“Elemental” 31% | 69%

Average: 43% | 57%

2024 Share of Total Gross (To Date)

“Inside Out 2” 40% | 60%

“Deadpool & Wolverine” 48% | 52%

“Despicable Me 4” 42% | 58%

“Twisters” 72% | 28%

“Bad Boys: Ride of Die” 48% | 52%

“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” 43% | 57%

“A Quiet Place: Day One” 53% | 47%

“IF” 60% | 40%

“The Fall Guy” 52% | 48%

“The Garfield Movie” 41% | 59%

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