‘Anora’ and director Sean Baker take the lead in Oscar odds
There’s no Oscar front-runner for Best Picture this year as clear and as strong as “Oppenheimer” was at around this time in 2023, so we’re bound to see fluctuation in our odds for Best Picture as the season progresses. That’s especially true now after a glut of film festivals around the world from Venice to Toronto to Telluride have unveiled many of the fall’s top contenders. But the new front-runner for Best Picture and Best Director in our odds is a film that had its world premiere back in May: Cannes Film Festival champ “Anora.”
The film, about the whirlwind romance between the title character (current Best Actress favorite Mikey Madison) and the son of a Russian oligarch (Mark Eydelshteyn), made its grand entrance onto the awards stage at the Cannes Film Festival. There it became the first American film since “The Tree of Life” (2011) to win the Palme d’Or. So far the film has received rapturous reviews from critics, and on October 18 it will be released to general audiences in the United States by Neon. That company also distributed the last four Palme d’Or champs, including Best Picture nominees “Triangle of Sadness” and “Anatomy of a Fall” and Best Picture winner “Parasite.”
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But Gold Derby’s top pundits are still quite divided. Though “Anora” is currently predicted to win Best Picture by six Expert journalists from major media outlets, one Gold Derby Editor, seven of our Top 24 Users and nine of our All-Star Top 24, Netflix’s “Emilia Perez” has just as much support from Experts and “Sing Sing” has more support from Editors.
As for Best Director, “Anora” filmmaker Sean Baker is backed by seven Experts, two Editors, seven Top Users and eight All-Stars, but he’s in a tight race with Steve McQueen for the as-yet-unseen World War II drama “Blitz.” McQueen was also the director of Best Picture winner “12 Years a Slave,” so “Blitz” has the potential to greatly shake up the odds when it premieres on October 9 at the BFI London Film Festival. For now, though, “Anora” is in the catbird seat, favored to follow in “Parasite’s” Cannes-to-Oscars footsteps.
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