Bafta TV 2024 predictions: who will win, who should win
Well, where do we begin? The anticipated Bafta showdown between the final series of Happy Valley and Succession has become a showdown between a frankly godawful final series of The Crown and a frankly random episode of Black Mirror. One day, whole books will be written about the year that Demon 79 – a Black Mirror episode about a vengeful spirit played by Paapa Essiedu – gathered more nominations than Happy Valley, Succession, Slow Horses and The Long Shadow. There may even be a chapter on the outrageous snub given to James Norton in a perplexing Leading Actor category or the total absence of Blue Lights, one of the best BBC dramas in years.
Given these baffling decisions, only a fool would try to guess who’ll actually win the things. So, ahead of this Sunday’s ceremony, here we go…
Drama Series
The Gold, BBC One
Happy Valley, BBC One
Slow Horses, Apple TV+
Top Boy, Netflix
Should win: Happy Valley
Will win: Happy Valley
You’d be a brave bookie to even take bets on this one. Sally Wainwright rounded off her mighty Calder Valley crime drama with a third and final series every bit as good as the previous two, and a kitchen-table denouement that took your breath away with its daring simplicity and lack of explosive action. With respect to the other nominees, if Happy Valley doesn’t win, Bafta needs its collective heads knocking together.
Limited Drama
Best Interests, BBC One
Demon 79 (Black Mirror), Netflix
The Long Shadow, ITV1
The Sixth Commandment, BBC One
Should win: The Sixth Commandment
Will win: The Long Shadow
I won’t bang on about Demon 79 – honestly, there should be a steward’s inquiry – but will instead focus on three exceptional dramas. Best Interests, about a mother and father’s decision to end the life of their terminally ill daughter, was a heavyweight gut punch, but will likely lose out to one of the true-crime dramas. I’d pick Sarah Phelp’s lean three-parter, but The Long Shadow had a greater impact.
Leading Actress
Anjana Vasan, Demon 79 (Black Mirror)
Anne Reid, The Sixth Commandment
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Helena Bonham Carter, Nolly
Sarah Lancashire, Happy Valley
Sharon Horgan, Best Interests
Should win: Helena Bonham Carter
Will win: Sarah Lancashire
A heavyweight list, this one. Ramsey and Vasan will get their time, while you couldn’t sniff at Horgan grabbing the award. I wasn’t the biggest fan of Russell T Davies’s Nolly, about Crossroads actress Noele Gordon, but sometimes you have to tip your hat to a powerhouse performance. Bonham Carter was magnificent. Lancashire, however, will likely win it – hopefully, she’ll mention James Norton in her acceptance speech. Anne Reid should be on the Supporting Actress list.
Leading Actor
Brian Cox, Succession
Dominic West, The Crown
Kane Robinson, Top Boy
Paapa Essiedu, The Lazarus Project
Steve Coogan, The Reckoning
Timothy Spall, The Sixth Commandment
Should win: James Norton (but from this list? Steve Coogan)
Will win: Steve Coogan
A head-scratching list, made perverse by the lack of James Norton, whose performance in the final series of Happy Valley almost outshone that of Sarah Lancashire (is there higher praise?). Cox has been sensational as Logan Roy, but was mainly a corpse in the final series. Essiedu, Robinson and West are superb actors, but none of their respective performances were out of this world. Spall, like Anne Reid, should be on the Supporting list. And no Michael Sheen for Best Interests? Harsh. That leaves Coogan, whose bravura performance as Jimmy Savile outstripped an uneven and disappointing drama. My flesh still crawls when I think of it.
Supporting Actress
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Harriet Walter, Succession
Jasmine Jobson, Top Boy
Lesley Manville, The Crown
Nico Parker, The Last of Us
Siobhan Finneran, Happy Valley
Should win: Siobhan Finneran
Will win: Lesley Manville
The Crown can’t have got all of those nominations to walk away with nothing, and they have two bites of the cherry here. I have been unmoved by Debicki’s impression of Princess Diana and feel that Manville’s portrayal of Princess Margaret’s undignified end will have made a greater impression on voters. Tip of the hat to Jobson, who has been excellent throughout Top Boy and will go onto bigger things. Tip of the hat to Nico Parker’s agent for getting her on this list at all.
Supporting Actor
Amit Shah, Happy Valley
Eanna Hardwicke, The Sixth Commandment
Harris Dickinson, A Murder at the End of the World
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
Matthew MacFadyen, Succession
Salim Daw, The Crown
Should win: Eanna Hardwicke
Will win: Matthew MacFadyen
Awards voters simply can’t get enough of MacFadyen’s turn as the chinless shock absorber Tom Wambsgans – and who can blame them, it’s extraordinary. However, I’d plump for Irish actor Hardwicke (who should be on the leading actor list, vying with James Norton for that award). His performance as the real-life killer Ben Field was a towering edifice of preening pomposity and deluded grandeur. As chilling a psychopath as has ever been portrayed on British TV.
Scripted Comedy
Big Boys, Channel 4
Dreaming Whilst Black, BBC Three
Extraordinary, Disney+
Such Brave Girls, BBC Three
Should win: Dreaming Whilst Black
Will win: Dreaming Whilst Black
A strong category – hurray for British comedy – but there is a clear standout. Big Boys continued its excellence with a strong second series, while Extraordinary has been a fine shop window for the talents of creator Emma Moran. Kat Sadler announced herself as one to watch with the slightly unhinged Such Brave Girls (and indeed scooped Best Emerging Talent at last month’s Bafta Television Craft Awards, where Big Boys won for Best Writer: Comedy), but it’s Adjani Salmon’s complex, needling Dreaming Whilst Black that should get this one. A comedy of serious depth.
Female Performance in a Comedy
Bridget Christie, The Change
Gbemisola Ikumelo, Black Ops
Mairead Tyers, Extraordinary
Roisin Gallagher, The Lovers
Sofia Oxenham, Extraordinary
Taj Atwal, Hullraisers
Should win: Roisin Gallagher
Will win: Gbemisola Ikumelo
Arguably a six-horse race, with things to love about all the performances. However, the underrated The Lovers deserves something, and not least for Gallagher’s gloriously foul-mouthed Belfast supermarket worker who finds herself in a complicated romance with an English media personality. Ikumelo, however, is a force of nature and a comic actress you suspect we will be enjoying for many years to come.
Male Performance in a Comedy
Adjani Salmon, Dreaming Whilst Black
David Tennant, Good Omens
Hammed Animashaun, Black ops
Jamie Demetriou, A Whole Lifetime with Jamie Demetriou
Joseph Gilgun, Brassic
Mawaan Rizwan, Juice
Should win: Adjani Salmon
Will win: Joseph Gilgun
Well, he did such a nice job of hosting the Film Baftas that it would be rude not to nominate Tennant for something. Always nice to have him on the red carpet too. However, this is a three-way race between Salmon, Animashaun and Gilgun. Salmon’s performance, I fear, is a little downbeat to get the win, while Animashaun is arguably overshadowed by co-star Ikumelo. Why not Gilgun, whose wonderfully chaotic Brassic has never quite had the credit it deserves.
International
The Bear, Disney+
Beef, Netflix
Class Act, Netflix
The Last of Us, HBO/Sky Atlantic
Love & Death, ITVX
Succession, HBO/Sky Atlantic
Should win: Beef
Will win: Succession
Bafta will wave goodbye to one of the greatest TV dramas in decades, giving Jesse Armstrong yet another trinket for his groaning mantelpiece. Can’t be sniffed at, but I’d go with Beef – watching it was like having an ice-cold bucket of water chucked over your face.
TV Baftas 2024: the other nominees
Comedy Entertainment
The Graham Norton Show
Late Night Lycett
Would I Lie To You?
Current Affairs
Inside Russia: Traitors and Heroes (Storyville)
Putin vs The West
Russell Brand: In Plain Sight (Dispatches)
The Shamima Begum Story (This World)
Daytime
Loose Women and Men
Lorraine
Make It at Market
Scam Interceptors
Entertainment
Hannah Waddingham: Home for Christmas
Later … with Jools Holland
Michael McIntyre’s Big Show
Strictly Come Dancing
Entertainment Performance
Anthony McPartlin and Declan Donnelly: I’m A Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here!
Big Zuu: Big Zuu’s Big Eats
Graham Norton:The Graham Norton Show
Hannah Waddingham: Eurovision Song Contest 2023
Joe Lycett: Late Night Lycett
Rob Beckett, Romesh Ranganathan: Rob & Romesh Vs
Factual Entertainment
Celebrity Race Across the World
The Dog House
Endurance: Race to the Pole
Portrait Artist of the Year
Factual Series
Dublin Narcos
Evacuation
Lockerbie
Once Upon a Time in Northern Ireland
Female Performance in a Comedy
Bridget Christie: The Change
Gbemisola Ikumelo: Black Ops
Máiréad Tyers: Extraordinary
Rosin Gallagher: The Lovers
Sofia Oxenham: Extraordinary
Taj Atwal: Hullraisers
News Coverage
Channel 4 News: Inside Gaza: Israel and Hamas at War
Sky News: Inside Myanmar - The Hidden War
Sky News: Israel-Hamas War
Reality
Banged up
Married At First Sight
My Mum, Your Dad
Squid Game: The Challenge
Short Form
Mobility
The Skewer: Three Twisted Years
Stealing Ukraine’s Children: Inside Russia’s Camps
Where It Ends
Single Documentary
David Holmes: The Boy Who Lived
Ellie Simmonds: Finding my Secret Family
Hatton
Vjeran Tomic: The Spider-Man of Paris
Soap
Casualty
EastEnders
Emmerdale
Specialist Factual
Chimp Empire
The Enfield Poltergeist
Forced Out
White Nanny, Black Child
Sports Coverage
Cheltenham Festival Day One
MOTD Live: FIFA Women’s World Cup 2023
Wimbledon 2023 Men’s Final
P&O Cruises Memorable Moment Award (voted for by the public)
Beckham: David teases Victoria about her ‘working class’ upbringing
Doctor Who: Ncuti Gatwa being revealed as the 15th Doctor
Happy Valley: Catherine Cawood and Tommy Lee Royce’s final kitchen showdown
The Last of Us: Bill and Frank’s Story
The Piano: 13-year old Lucy stuns commuters with jaw dropping piano performance
Succession: Logan Roy’s death
The TV Baftas will be shown on BBC One, May 12, at 7pm
