Best Drama Directing Emmy odds: ‘Shōgun’ enjoys sizable lead, but watch out for ‘The Crown’

Christopher Tsang
·5 min read

The 2024 Emmys lineup for Best Drama Directing was a free-for-all, resulting in one of the most diverse group of shows and nominees in recent memory. The lineup includes two premieres (“Slow Horses” and “Mr. & Mrs. Smith”), two finales (“The Crown” and “The Morning Show”), and two penultimate showcases (“Shōgun” and “Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty”). With none of the shows nominated last year (or their last eligibility), anything is possible, but there looks to be a clear frontrunner in this category based on the quality of the episodes and the popularity of the series.

Here are Gold Derby’s current Best Drama Directing Emmy 2024 racetrack odds:

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1. “Shōgun” (“Crimson Sky” by Frederick E.O. Toye) — 10/3 odds
2. “The Crown” (“Sleep, Dearie Sleep” by Stephen Daldry) — 4/1 odds
3. “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (“First Date” by Hiro Murai) — 5/1 odds
4. “Slow Horses” (“Strange Games” by Saul Metzstein) — 6/1 odds
5. “The Morning Show” (“The Overview Effect” by Mimi Leder) — 6/1 odds
6. “Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (“BEAT L.A.” by Salli Richardson-Whitfield) — 7/1 odds

SEEWill first time be the Emmy charm for ‘Shogun’?

Leading the pack as of this writing is the penultimate episode of “Shōgun,” directed by veteran drama director Frederick E.O. Toye, arguably the standout showcase of the series. “Crimson Sky” is the climax of the first season, featuring lengthy scenes which include carefully-blocked negotiations and choreographed fights, ending in an intense explosive battle and the death of Mariko (Anna Sawai), which the episode also studies on with her character backstory. Toye received his first Emmy nomination in 2018 as a producer of “Westworld,” but this is his first awards outing as a director.

That is not the case for “The Crown’s” Stephen Daldry, who won this category in 2018 for the historical drama’s second season in a surprise victory. Since that win, he has not been behind the camera for the show until its series finale “Sleep, Dearie Sleep,” where Queen Elizabeth II (Imelda Staunton) approaches her 80th birthday and prepares for her own funeral, while reluctantly granting her blessing to Prince Charles (Dominic West) to marry Camilla Parker Bowles (Olivia Williams), and envisioning her younger selves, battling as to whether to abdicate the throne. This category has not rewarded a series finale since “ER” in 2009, but Daldry does end the series with a nostalgic finality, giving the Queen a resolute, beautiful conclusion.

Behind him is eight-time Emmy nominee Hiro Murai for the pilot of “Mr. & Mrs. Smith.” Murai won his first Emmy last year as a producer for “The Bear” in its first season, but this is his first directing nom in the drama category, giving him recognition in all three directing genres in just a span of six years after being previously cited for “Atlanta” in 2018 for comedy and “Station Eleven” in 2022 for limited/anthology series. In “First Date,” we are introduced to the characters played by Donald Glover and Maya Erskine, who get to know each other with their fake identities as they embark on their first spy mission. While the introductory hour showcases a number of explosive, action sequences as they unknowingly deliver a bomb to a location, it also features many quiet, intimate scenes between Glover and Erskine as they cautiously bond.

SEEEmmy Experts Typing: Is ‘Slow Horses’ a dark horse for multiple wins?

Tied at 6/1 odds are the season premiere of “Slow Horses” and the season finale of “The Morning Show.” For the spy thriller from first-time nominee Saul Metzstein, “Strange Games” begins with a flashback in Istanbul centering around a British intelligence operative, who goes on to kidnap one of the members of the Slough House team. The episode then shifts around the team’s investigation of her disappearance before ending in a cliffhanger and per its genre, has a number of nail-biting, intense action and chase scenes with quick cuts that leave viewers on the edge of their seat.

As for the other Apple TV+ series, this is Mimi Leder’s second directing nomination for the morning news satire after getting in for the first season, and her 12th overall, going all the way back to the 1990s when she first won for directing “ER” in 1995. In this high-stakes season finale, the news team comes to find out about their billionaire investor – played by nominee Jon Hamm – and his plans for the network, while finding out that he has been surveilling them, resulting in the team working to dismantle the takeover.

Finally in what was arguably the biggest jawdropper of the entire Emmy nominations, “Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” lands a bid for its closing season for Salli Richardson-Whitfield, who makes history as the first Black woman to be acknowledged in this category. It is very rare for the Emmys to recognize shows in the main categories after they have been canceled, particularly since it was known all the way back in September not long after “BEAT L.A.” aired. This penultimate episode juggles a lot of storylines in its runtime, covering two years and jumping ahead in time, using various techniques like breaking the fourth wall and montages to illustrate the changes in the lives of Jerry Buss and Honey Kaplan, Jerry West, Magic Johnson, Norm Nixon and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, ending at the 1984 Eastern Conference Finals as the team prepares for the NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics. In addition, Richardson-Whitfield is nominated as a producer for “The Gilded Age.”

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