Box office preview: Robert Zemeckis’ ‘Here’ tries to make an impact against stronger offerings
The holiday movie season may be getting off to a slow start over the next few weeks, but that’s not due to the lack of star power or Oscar hopefuls. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.
What’s a little strange about this November kick-off weekend is that there are not one, not two, but three movies from filmmakers who have directed movies that won Best Picture at the Oscars. And yet, only one of them is getting a wide theatrical release and is bound to report box office.
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That movie is “Here,” based on the graphic novel by Richard McGuire. It reunites “Forrest Gump” director Robert Zemeckis with two of his stars, Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, as well as Oscar-winning screenwriter Eric Roth, for a unique family drama that essentially keeps the camera in place to show the events of a specific Philly location over time.
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In some ways, “Here” is a little reminiscent of Steven Spielberg‘s 2022 release “The Fabelmans,” which only made $17.3 million domestic and $25.9 million overseas after receiving rave reviews out of its festival premiere. Unlike Spielberg’s personal family drama, the reviews for “Here” are absolutely terrible, currently 32% on Rotten Tomatoes, at the time of this writing. One thing working in the movie’s favor is that adult-targeted films seem to be thriving in theaters, going by the showings for “Conclave,” “Anora,” and “We Live in Time” last weekend, but those are also offering competition to “Here” with their far better reviews and buzz.
Despite the star power of Hanks, it’s highly dubious that “Here” will open with more than $10 million, but even with only $7 to $9 million, it’s still good for second place behind “Venom: The Last Dance,” which is likely to stay on top even with a big second week crash.
The other moderately wide release is “Absolution,” the latest film starring Liam Neeson, which Roadside Attractions will be releasing in 800+ theaters on Friday. This one reunites Neeson with his “Cold Pursuit” director Hans Petter Moland with the Oscar nominee playing an aging gangster hoping to reconnect with his kids, whose criminal past comes back to haunt him.
This is Neeson’s 11th movie since the start of 2020 with only “Honest Thief” and “The Marksman” coming even close to $15 million despite being released at the height of COVID. In fact, “Cold Pursuit” was Neeson’s last action movie to open well with $11 million in February 2019, making $62.6 million globally. By comparison, Neeson’s previous 2024 movie, “In the Land of Saints and Sinners,” only opened with $1 million in 896 theaters back in March and then only made $3.4 million worldwide. “Absolution” is opening in more theaters, around 1,200, but it’s not likely to do that much better, maybe making $2 million to open in the lower end of the Top 10.
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Viva Entertainment hasn’t had much success in the States with their animated releases, but they’re probably hoping “Hitpig” will change that by giving it a moderately wide release as well. Featuring the voice cast of Jason Sudeikis (as the titular pig assassin), Andy Serkis, Rainn Wilson, RuPaul, and Hannah Gatsby, this would normally do well with so little family offerings, other than DreamWorks Animation’s “The Wild Robot.” With almost zero promotion of note, expect this to open outside the top 10 with maybe a million or slightly more.
Jesse Eisenberg‘s “A Real Pain,” co-starring Oscar hopeful Kieran Culkin, will finally be released by Searchlight Studios into select cities over nine months since it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival with rave reviews. With serious Oscar buzz for Culkin’s performance as the annoying cousin to Eisenberg, while the two of them are on a Holocaust tour in Poland, this has proven to be a real crowdpleaser on the festival circuit, racking up a 93% on Rotten Tomatoes since its premiere. “A Real Pain” will expand nationwide on November 15, and we’ll have more to say about it then.
By now, we should be used to Netflix not reporting box office, although Jacques Audiard‘s “Emilia Pérez,” starring Zoe Saldana, Selena Gomez, and Mexican actress Karla Sofía Gascón, has received so much buzz since its own Cannes debut that it’s likely to be in the awards conversation leading up to Oscar night on March 2, 2025. It should do well this weekend in limited release before debuting on Netflix on Nov. 22.
Besides “Here,” there are two other movies this weekend from directors whose movies have won Best Picture at the Oscars: Clint Eastwood‘s “Juror #2,” starring Nicholas Hoult, and Steve McQueen‘s “Blitz,” starring Saoirse Ronan. Both are getting limited releases from their respective distributors, Warner Bros. and Apple, who are mostly targeting future streaming viewers, so don’t be too surprised if neither reports box office on Sunday.
Either way, you can check back then to see how the other movies do.
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