Box office preview: ‘Venom: The Last Dance’ tries to avoid the October sequel slump
October ends with yet another sequel in a month that’s been chock full of sequels with some clearly doing far better than others. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.
One thing that’s set 2024 apart from other recent years is that there has been a noticeable lack of superhero and comic book movies, possibly because both Marvel and DC had such a weak 2023. Along comes Sony Pictures’ “Venom: The Last Dance,” the third (and reportedly final) movie starring Tom Hardy as Eddie Brock aka Venom, the Spider-Man villain who has become a popular anti-hero in his own right.
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The first “Venom” movie opened in October 2018 to $80.3 million, going on to make $856 million worldwide, followed by the sequel “Venom: Let There Be Carnage,” which opened with $90 million in October 2021, while COVID was still pervasive. That only made $501 million globally, though both movies made $213.5 million domestically with the sequel making just $40,000 more than the first movie. That is something that rarely happens.
SEE 2024 box office hits: Every movie that made more than $100 million
“Venom: The Last Dance” has a new director in screenwriter Kelly Marcel, who makes her feature directorial debut, bringing on new cast that includes Juno Temple from “Ted Lasso,” Stephen Graham, Chiwetel Ejiofor, and Rhys Ifans, the latter two who have previously been in Marvel movies. It has yet to be confirmed whether Ifans is reprising his Dr. Curt Connors role from “Spider-Man 3” and “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” but Ejiofor is playing a new character.
As mentioned, “The Last Dance” is being released in a month in which other sequels haven’t done nearly as well as expected, with the exception being the unrated indie horror hit, “Terrifier 3.” Some might wonder whether this Spider-Man adjacent comic movie might find similar success as another comic book threequel, “Deadpool and Wolverine,” earlier this summer. (Sony has been moving another Spider-related movie, “Kraven the Hunter,” around the release schedule, that one having been delayed since 2023 and now not being released until December.)
Reviews for Venom’s third movie won’t hit until Wednesday afternoon, although if the movie is bad, early reactions could very well hurt its performance, especially since ticket sales don’t seem to be as strong as they should be for a sequel to two $200 million domestic hits. Taking into account sequels that bombed like “Joker: Folie à Deux” earlier this month and the decline of comic book movies in general, one has to wonder whether this third movie might open lower than the previous movie with “sequelitis” seemingly in play. Being advertised as the “end of a trilogy” does help it since those who enjoyed the first two movies (which both received “B+” CinemaScores) might still go to see it.
Bearing all that in mind, I have a bad feeling this might end up opening somewhere between $60 and $70 million, with another major hurdle being the start of the World Series between the New York Yankees and the L.A. Dodgers that could potentially hurt business in both major moviegoing cities. (The Venom threequel will also be on 1,527 IMAX screens in 78 markets, including China, so it could be a big worldwide player, regardless of how well or poorly it does in North America.)
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The other major wide release is Focus Features’ release of the dramatic thriller, “Conclave,” directed by Oscar-winner Edward Berger (“All Quiet on the Western Front”) nationwide on Friday, hoping to capitalize on the awards buzz it has already been getting. Based on the bestselling 2016 novel from Robert Harris, the movie stars Oscar nominee Ralph Fiennes as Cardinal Lawrence, the dean of the Vatican’s College of Cardinals, who has to monitor a heated contest to fill the empty seat when the Pope dies suddenly under mysterious circumstances.
The film also stars Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, Isabella Rosselini, and an international cast – mostly of men, since it takes place at the Vatican – with the added prestige of the novel being adapted by Oscar nominee Peter Straughan (“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”).
Focus debuted “Conclave” at the Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals in September to begin its awards run, where it began to drum up stellar reviews with 94% on Rotten Tomatoes, at the time of this writing. Fiennes quickly moved into the lead as the favorite to win the Oscar for Best Actor in Gold Derby’s Oscar predictions, although the movie has made its way into many other categories as well. That support, as well as those reviews has helped drum up interest among older moviegoers for this unconventional thriller, because it looks like something written by Dan Brown (“The Da Vinci Code”). It’s doubtful there will be much appeal to younger moviegoers despite the movie receiving a PG rating. All things considered, “Conclave” should make between $4 to $5 million in 1,800 theaters this coming weekend, possibly challenging “Terrifier 3” for fourth place.
A24 will also expand the Andrew Garfield–Rebecca Pugh drama, “We Live in Time,” into over 2,000 theaters after its successful expansion into the top five last weekend, and it could possibly also stay in the top five since word-of-mouth seems to be solid.
IFC Films is releasing Oscar winner Adam (“Harvie Krumpet”) Elliot‘s quirky stop-motion animated “Memoir of a Snail” on Friday, though it’s still undetermined how wide it might be released, since it’s not exactly kid-friendly fare ala Pixar or “Wallace and Gromit.”
Vertical releases “Your Monster,” starring Melissa Barrera, which premiered at Sundance in January with the “Scream” star playing Laura Franco, who has been dumped by her boyfriend while recovering from surgery. She then meets and falls for a monster, played by Tommy Dewey.
On Sunday, you can check back to see how the movies above fared against others.
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