Box Office: ‘Wicked’ Heading for Record $120M Opening, ‘Gladiator II’ on Course for Stellar $61M
Call it whatever you want — Glicked, Wickiator or Barbienheimer 2.0. The only thing that matters is that the domestic box office is springing back to life in historic fashion thanks to the combo of Universal’s musical Wicked and Paramount’s Gladiator II.
Based on early Friday returns, Wicked is headed for a domestic debut of $120 million — the biggest in history for a Broadway adaptation and the fourth-biggest of all time for a big-screen musical. It would also be the third-biggest opening of 2024 to date.
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Gladiator II is likewise living up to expectations, and is on course to open to $61 million.
Fueled largely by females, the well-reviewed Wicked grossed a huge $11 million in Thursday previews from 3,300 cinemas for a total preview tally of $19.2 million when factoring in special advance screenings held over the past week. On Monday, Amazon Prime screenings generated $2.5 million at 750 theaters, while advance screenings on Wednesday generated another $5.7 million from 2,000 theaters.
Filmmaker Jon M. Chu’s adaptation of the popular Broadway musical boasts a high-profile cast led by Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, and should score one of the top openings of all time for a musical, and particularly a live-action musical. That’s good news for the genre, which has a decidedly mixed record. It’s also good news for Universal, which took a major gamble in making two movies. Wicked II hits theaters a year from now.
The $150 million film was originally set to open Nov. 27, the day before Thanksgiving, but moved up to build word of mouth heading into Thanksgiving week. The new date also gives it some breathing room from Disney’s Moana 2, which sails into theaters on Nov. 27. Moana 2 could easily surpass $150 million in its debut to lead the biggest five-day Thanksgiving weekend of all time (Wednesday through Sunday).
Social media has been abuzz with speculation that Gladiator II and Wicked will replicate the Barbenheimer effect this weekend and be the perfect pairing in terms of attracting males and females to the multiplex. Wicked presently boasts an 89 percent fresh ratings critics score on Rotten Tomatoes and Gladiator, 72 percent.
Originally based on the best-selling novel by Gregory Maguire, Wicked tells the untold story of the witches of Oz, with Erivo as Elphaba and Grande as Glinda. Winnie Holzman, the stage production’s book writer, wrote the screenplay for Chu’s movie with Dana Fox. Academy Award-winning composer and lyricist Stephen Schwartz adapted the musical for the screen.
Directed by Ridley Scott, the $250 million Gladiator sequel opens 24 years after the first film and looks to open to a hearty $61 million or thereabouts. The follow-up stars Paul Mescal, Denzel Washington, Connie Nielsen and Fred Hechinger, among others.
The film sees Mescal playing a grown-up Lucius Verus II, the nephew of Emperor Commodus from the original film, played by Joaquin Phoenix. Lucius returns to Rome after being forced into slavery to battle not as a ruler but as a gladiator out for revenge and power, seeking to return the glory of Rome to its people.
Nov. 22, 1:15 p.m.: Updated with weekend projections.
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