Chappell Roan’s ‘The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess’ skyrockets in Grammy odds for Album of the Year

Chappell Roan‘s star has been on the rise, and with it her debut studio album “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess” has climbed gradually on the Billboard 200. Likewise, she has been climbing up Gold Derby’s racetrack odds chart for Album of the Year based on the combined predictions of our users. She’s now looking like a shoo-in for a nomination. But could she actually win?

As of August 26 “Midwest Princess” is at number-four on our Album of the Year chart with 21/2 odds. Just one week earlier on August 19 the album was ninth with 25/1 odds. A week before that on August 12 it was in 11th place with 30/1 odds. Currently predicting her to be nominated are 17 of our Top 24 Users, with two of them picking her to win. Meanwhile, 16 of our All-Star Top 24 say she’ll be nominated with one betting on her to win.

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But we might still be underestimating her. She has generated positive word-of-mouth like we haven’t seen in years. At a time when albums often debut with high sales and streaming figures and then plummet, “Midwest Princess” was released in September 2023 and climbed to number-two 11 months later in August 2024. Her standalone single “Good Luck, Babe!” has also been a sleeper hit, peaking at number-six (so far) months after its release.

That kind of organic success might be more appealing to voters than the more predictable blockbuster launches of the three albums ahead of her: Taylor Swift‘s “The Tortured Poets Department,” Beyonce‘s “Cowboy Carter” and Billie Eilish‘s “Hit Me Hard and Soft.” Also, Swift and Eilish have won before, so there may not be much urgency to reward them again — Swift announced “Tortured Poets” literally the night she won Album of the Year for the fourth time for “Midnights,” so it’s easy to imagine some Swift fatigue setting in.

So far, “Midwest Princess” has been all rise and no fall. In addition to its success as a whole, several of its songs (“My Kink Is Karma,” “Femininomenon,” “Casual,” “Pink Pony Club,” “Red Wine Supernova” and “Hot to Go!”) have joined “Good Luck, Babe!” on the Hot 100, making Roan a consistent, well-rounded hit-maker instead of a flash in the pan. Voters tend to prefer that to newcomers with just one or two signature hits who haven’t yet demonstrated staying power. Indeed, Roan probably isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

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