Emmy Experts Typing: Will there be guest acting upsets again?
Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss the Creative Arts Emmys before this weekend’s dual ceremonies.
Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’re back to get creative for the last time this year. The 2024 Emmy Awards get started this weekend with the two-night Creative Arts Emmy ceremonies. We made our “final” picks earlier this week and were in lockstep on a lot of picks, but not in the guest acting categories. Maybe for your sake, that’s for the best. Last year, I wiped out there with one out of four correct (and should Nick Offerman even count when he was the lockiest of locks?). This year I feel much better about those predictions, even if I zagged from the consensus in a couple of spots by going with Christopher Lloyd in comedy guest actor over Jon Bernthal and Jonathan Pryce in drama guest actor over Nestor Carbonell. (On the actress side, I’m with the favorites: Claire Foy and Jamie Lee Curtis.) As Mr. Overreaction, I love looking at these results and seeing where I might overreact. Last year, for instance, the dominance from “The Last of Us,” had me toying very seriously with putting Pedro Pascal and Bella Ramsey ahead of our beloved Roy siblings. I didn’t do that and it worked out. If “The Bear” falters or “Shōgun” misses some key wins, will I have “Hacks” and “Slow Horses” supremacy on Emmys night? These are questions I’m left to ponder. But before we get there, what are your thoughts on the Creative Arts Emmys, starting with the guest categories? What are you secretly hoping might happen this weekend?
joyceeng: I believe the record would show that you did switch to Pascal and Ramsey after Creative Arts, because of course you would, and you went back to Kieran Culkin and Sarah Snook days later because you wanted to go down with Waystar Royco, win or lose. The correct call in every sense. But I don’t think there’s a show this year you love as much as “Succession” for you to switch back. Maybe “Hacks,” but wins for JLC and Bernthal would not be shockers like Storm Reid‘s victory was last year. JLC might just be this year’s Offerman, even though we know Kaitlin Olson deserves. Bernthal was also the odds-on favorite last year as we all thought he’d be amplified by Season 2 of “The Bear,” but he fell to Sam Richardson, who, like Reid, was dead last in the odds. It felt like Bernthal should’ve gotten swept up in “The Bear” sweep and I’m not sure how the broom missed him (#sorrynotsorry). That doesn’t mean he can’t win now, but does the fact that he’s nominated alongside two co-stars, Bob Odenkirk and Will Poulter, instead of one like last time, Oliver Platt, also hurt him? Poulter’s turn is also more adored than Platt’s (no shade). My approach with the guest categories is to try not to pick the consensus four because there’s usually at least one surprise winner who was not first in the odds. Last year, there were three. Two years ago, there were two (though neither Laurie Metcalf nor Lee Yoo-mi were major surprises; they were both in second). Three years ago, there were two, including Foy, which is why she’s currently first. The hard part is picking the categories in which to go against the grain. And I’m doing it in three (!) this year since I have Lloyd, Pryce and Micaela Coel for “Mr. & Mrs. Smith.” Of these, I’d say Lloyd has the best chance? You’re obviously biased since you talked to him.
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Christopher Rosen: Lloyd feels pretty safe, which is maybe the kiss of death. But if you believe there isn’t much daylight between “The Bear” guys and Ryan Gosling is a red herring because the people who usually win for “SNL” are more like comics and entertainers and Matthew Broderick is a nonstarter, then Lloyd should win in a walk. I’m glad you’ve decided on Pryce because I’d feel weird stealing your “Slow Horses” valor. When we talked this week, we both kind of struggled with the music categories and main title design. I defaulted to “Shōgun” in many spots and that feels right but also not really? Do you think “Shōgun” will dominated here or is the enthusiasm for it not as strong as we might expect?
joyceeng: “Shōgun” is obviously the safest choice in many categories and will probably be the win leader, but I don’t expect complete dominance. You can pick it for main title design and main title theme and hope to get at least one right (shades of predicting the same movie when there were two sound categories at the Oscars). I think I’ll keep my split of “Lessons in Chemistry” for design and “Shōgun” for theme since I’ve already come this far. But I can see almost every one of the design nominees winning. This is also a category that’s not afraid to award underdogs and lone nominees. The last two winners were “The Last of Us” and “Severance,” but the two before that were “The Good Lord Bird” and “Godfather of Harlem.” And then before that were “Game of Thrones” and “Counterpart,” another Justin Marks joint. Basically, none of them are out of it and you can’t really depend on show strength. We were also debating whether Alan Cumming could end the eight-year reign of RuPaul in reality host. Ru has been winning since the Obama administration. But we didn’t mention four-time champ Jeff Probst, who won this category the first four years of its existence, was dropped for 12 years before making it back in. This is after “Survivor” shocking made the reality-competition program cut last year for the first time since 2006. Ru and Probst have obviously never faced one another. What happens when two undefeated champs go head to head?
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Christopher Rosen: This is the kind of information that makes me think Cumming might win as the third option. But I’m going to stick with Ru for now, just like I’m going to leave Pat Sajak in the top position for game show host. We’ve talked about overreactions to these awards before the Primetime Emmys ceremony, and I could see this materialize in limited series, where “True Detective: Night Country” and “Ripley” are safe bets to well outperform “Baby Reindeer” (which only has four Creative Arts Emmys nominations anyway). I’ve been looking for an excuse to short “Baby Reindeer” on the main show, and well, I could see me doing just that in actor and directing depending on how “Ripley” does. You’re much more level-headed than I, so do you imagine any outcome that could sway your Primetime picks before we do them next week?
joyceeng: We’ve discussed the “Hacks”-“The Bear” battle ad nauseam, but I don’t really see a scenario in which “The Bear” bombs spectacularly and “Hacks” over-performs beyond our wildest expectations. The beauty of the Emmys is that it’s branch-voting outside of the program categories. So a hugely successful Creative Arts night doesn’t necessarily translate to a hugely successful Primetime Emmys night. And a poor Creative Arts showing doesn’t mean you’ll flop at the main show either. But I eagerly await your changes next week!
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