Emmy Experts Typing: What races have the nominations changed?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we are still reeling from Wednesday’s nominations.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! Now that the dust has settled on the 2024 Emmy nominations, how are you feeling about what transpired? It’s not the main headline, but I’m still shaking my head at Lily Gladstone and Robert Downey Jr. making it in as lone nominees from their shows, just some real major namecheck vibes from the actors’ branch of the academy — particularly since Downey was nominated somehow without a corresponding prosthetic makeup citation for “The Sympathizer” prosthetic makeup designer Vincent Van Dyke, a former winner and 13-time nominee. (Van Dyke did receive an Emmy nomination this year for his Ghoul work on “Fallout,” fortunately.) Tell me you didn’t watch these shows without telling me you didn’t watch these shows. In terms of import, most of the Emmy headlines focused on “The Bear” setting a record for comedy series with 23 nominations, a fact that riled up some of the anti-”Bear” folks on social media, many of whom — at least according to my algorithm — took great umbrage with the FX dramedy taking that Emmy record from an actual lol comedy in “30 Rock.” This faux outrage, the fact that “The Bear” missed three key acting nominations most thought the show would land (Oliver Platt, Matty Matheson and Abby Elliott), and the underwhelming response to Season 3, certainly has at least some people probably expecting some kind of academy backlash to the show, which would allow “Hacks” to emerge victoriously in September. But as we spoke about on Wednesday after the nominations, I don’t buy it. In fact, I fully expect “The Bear” to dominate the 2024 Emmys, with the potential for it to win not just series, writing, directing, actor, supporting actor, and both guest actor awards, but also supporting actress. It’s blasphemy, surely — and I won’t predict it yet — but if Liza Colón-Zayas wins over Hannah Einbinder, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised. You suggested “Napkins” (Colón-Zayas’ third-season showcase episode) is no “Forks” (Ebon Moss-Bachrach’s second-season showcase episode), but it might be enough of a boon to push her over the top, particularly since voters certainly love “The Bear.” I expect you’ll explain why this is fool’s logic, and I’m happy to go down with the Einbinder ship (she deserves to win because hers was the best performance on any show this year), but let’s just say I have doubts. Please give me your take on the comedy nominations after the initial rush and then explain why Tadanobu Asano could join Anna Sawai and Hiroyuki Sanada as “Shōgun” acting winners.

joyceeng: The most entertaining part of Phase 2 are your impetuous overreactions. Never change. This reminds of me when you were convinced Lily James would beat Amanda Seyfried because “Pam & Tammy” over-performed and got multiple acting nominations while “The Dropout” underperformed and Seyfried was its only acting bid. Last year, we were excited (or at least I was) that the restricted ballot was reintroduced because we thought that would curb the spamming of acting nominees from a select number of shows. That didn’t happen in drama, where “Succession” and “The White Lotus” monopolized the acting categories, with “The Last of Us” right behind them, only because it just has two series regulars, but it dominated the guest races with “Succession.” We thought that meant the restricted ballot didn’t work because people are too lazy and watch too few shows now in the era of Mass TV. We all applied this logic to predict this year’s nominees — we know the industry loves “The Bear,” so why wouldn’t voters check off every actor like they did with “Succession” and “The White Lotus”? You were among the many who also predicted Claire Bear herself, Molly Gordon. My hot take is that this year proves the restricted ballot does work. It didn’t work last year, which tricked us into believing it was irrelevant. Like I said on Wednesday, I think “Succession” and “The White Lotus” are true ensemble shows on which every character and multiple character dynamics work and click and get shine, so it’s harder in a way to separate faves. “The Bear,” “Shōgun,” which also underperformed in acting, and “Hacks,” which did not take over the guest categories like it did in 2022 — are like that; they are each centered on core groups of main characters and the secondary characters are truly secondary. The fact that voters didn’t go overboard with “The Bear” actors shows that they weren’t mindlessly checking off everyone just because they love the show when faced with a ballot containing six slots in supporting. Maybe Platt, Matheson and Elliott would’ve gotten in on an unlimited ballot. We’ll never know. But it also shows that voters were paying attention to Season 2 of “The Bear.” No shade, but would anyone nominate Platt and Matheson before Moss-Bachrach and Lionel Boyce? Or Elliott before LCZ? Platt could’ve been the Alexander Skarsgard of “The Bear,” but he wasn’t. Voters were similarly judicious with “Hacks” Season 3 (this is the first time “Hacks” has competed on a restricted ballot). Besides Jean Smart and Einbinder, who were obviously locks, they nominated the other best parts of Season 3, Paul W. Downs and Kaitlin Olson, and just one guest actor in Christopher Lloyd. This is a hella long way of saying I think Einbinder is fine. They paid attention closely to both shows — which we know they do with shows they love — and Season 3 of “The Bear” is obviously not lighting the world on fire in a way that some perhaps thought it would prior to June 26. I feel like “The Bear” might perform exactly like “Ted Lasso” Season 2 did with wins for series, lead actor, supporting actor and directing. “Abbott Elementary’s” writing win then was expected, but Sheryl Lee Ralph defeating reigning champ Hannah Waddingham was an upset and showed that voters paid attention to this hot new show on ABC (honestly, her and Tyler James Williams‘ nominations, which were also under-predicted, already told us that). As for Asano, if “Shōgun” could only have one acting win, I would give it to him. No offense to everyone else. But with the show missing some acting nominations, I don’t know if it’ll win three main acting awards, especially when his top competition is a former winner, Billy Crudup, on a show the actors have always adored, “The Morning Show,” which bagged 10 acting bids. Or maybe Asano wins and one of Sanada and Sawai loses?

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Christopher Rosen: I don’t know that I’d say the restricted ballot works — we know voters are often lazy and ignored several great performances last year — but it does when the competition isn’t overwhelming. I love that you’re suggesting a potential “Shōgun” miss in the lead acting races, but even reactionary me doesn’t take that possible result all that seriously. But to play that out: Long ago, it felt like Gary Oldman would win Best Drama Actor for “Slow Horses” — at least until “Shōgun” shifted to drama. “Slow Horses” over-performed and landed multiple major nominations, proof the academy did watch the show this season. So… can Oldman win anyway, particularly for an obvious lead performance when it could probably be argued that Sanada is a co-lead at best (and maybe the third lead if we’re being honest with how the season broke down)? Sawai, on the other hand, feels almost undeniable: Mariko is the focus of the show, the standout of the best episode, and the competition here for Sawai feels kind of soft: Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon probably cancel each other out, Maya Erskine and Carrie Coon have really strong “happy to be there” vibes, and Imelda Staunton, well, she could certainly win for the final season of “The Crown,” following in the footsteps of Claire Foy and Olivia Colman — both of whom won for their final seasons as Queen Elizabeth — but I think the campaign machinery would really have to rev up quickly for that to happen. Still, I’ve got Staunton in second place in my picks — this despite snubbing her in my predictions because of the vibes failure. Speaking of which: We both whiffed on “Fellow Travelers” in our season-long discussions — I did eventually predict Jonathan Bailey but only to satiate the online fans! — but I’m ready to give it at least one Emmy win to Bailey. I can’t type the same about Matt Bomer, and while that Best Movie/Limited Actor category feels like an eventual win for Richard Gadd as part of a “Baby Reindeer” sweep, I can’t help but think Andrew Scott might pull it out in the end. What do you make of those races and am I just delayed the inevitable by even suggesting Bailey and Scott over Tom Goodman-Hill and Gadd?

joyceeng: But that’s proof of the restricted ballot working — no one said it’s perfect! Not every small, under-watched show and under-recognized performance is going to get in — that’s impossible under any system unless you’re just handing out participation trophies to every show for merely existing — but it prevented major spamming this year. Plus, “The Bear” arguably should’ve been able to pull Platt and Elliott in if it were as mighty and beloved as it appears to be. Instead, Paul Rudd and Carol Burnett made it. I think the restricted ballot also played a part in Cosmo Jarvis‘ snub, about which no one is outraged as expected. That was a polarizing performance that a lotta people didn’t get, and let’s face it, I doubt he’s anybody’s favorite on “Shōgun.” And even if you didn’t hate his performance, when faced with six slots and you’ve already got Sanada in, you might not want to waste, for the lack of a better word, a vote on a performance you’re neutral on when another performance you like more, like, say, Idris Elba‘s, is right there. Jarvis obviously wasn’t going to impede Sanada had he gotten in, but the softer reception to “Shōgun” actors and “Slow Horses'” over-performance makes the Best Drama Actor race closer than some may want to admit. Sawai definitely feels like she has more of a lead in her category, but Aniston is firmly in second there for me. I don’t think she and Witherspoon will split many votes. Staunton completing the Queen Elizabeth Emmy trifecta would be iconic, but I don’t know if I can back someone who previously failed to net Emmy and individual SAG Award nominations for this performance when her predecessors did. That’s probably your “Baby Reindeer” bias showing. Scott would win if “Baby Reindeer” didn’t exist. The show is just bigger and was the surprise hit of the spring (of the season?). People are knocked out by that show and Gadd’s performance — you know he’ll get “brave” points — and Jean Smart wants to work with him so badly that they’re now email buddies. I have no effin’ idea what’s going on in supporting actor. I just slotted Bailey into first because I had to move on. The noms were always gonna the harder part for him and Bomer, to a lesser extent, who’s not win-competitive, since “Fellow Travelers” could’ve gone the way of “The Good Lord Bird.” Bailey — and every nominee not named RDJ — is also fortunate that his category is wide open now with “The Sympathizer” tanking in more ways than one. If you go by series strength, Goodman-Hill, John Hawkes, Lamorne Morris and Lewis Pullman are the ones from series nominees. But as we know from Ben Whishaw and reigning champ Paul Walter Hauser, that is not a prereq for a win. Whishaw and PWH were also a lot stronger than Bailey is at this juncture. There is still a world in which RDJ prevails — one in which they’re incredibly lazy and/or don’t feel inordinately passionate about another nominee — but I’d feel more confident about that had “The Sympathizer” gotten literally any other nomination. People are already mad about him being the show’s only nomination. Imagine the outrage if he still manages to win.

SEE Emmy Experts Typing: What surprises and snubs might we get on nominations morning?

Christopher Rosen: That is expected outrage, but I don’t think anyone has to worry about the win now. We were on the fence about him winning when we thought “The Sympathizer” would do OK! As for Aniston vs. Witherspoon, I would pick Aniston over my beloved Reese, but I think they’re very evenly matched and Bradley has the politically relevant narrative (“politically” “relevant”) that could give her an edge for some civic-minded voters. For limited actor: I am perhaps #biased against “Baby Reindeer,” which should dominate and hit all its expected marks, but I do feel like “Ripley” over-performed. It got the series nomination we didn’t predict (but many did) and managed to put Dakota Fanning into the mix as well. I think it’s win-competitive in directing (although I’d put “True Detective” and Issa López ahead of it in the runner-up spot behind “Baby Reindeer”; that is a very competitive race!), and could easily win cinematography and its sound categories as well.  That Scott is a beloved figure as well — not just from the Film Twitter crowd — probably helps in this matter as well. So we’ll disagree there and probably in a few other spots but otherwise, this all feels fairly chalk as we head to 2024’s second Emmys ceremony. Take the last word and help me with this: Will anything stop the inevitable “The Bear,” “Shōgun,” “Baby Reindeer” series victories?

joyceeng: Fanning was not in the top seven (she was ninth), but “Ripley” had been top five in the odds since “Shōgun” fled the coop, so its series nomination is not really a sign of an over-performance even if neither of us had it. Is anyone surprised it got in? No. You know how I didn’t want any limited series to move to shore up the weak drama field, and once “Shōgun” did, it felt like we were in line for a second consecutive ceremony of three shows dominating the night. However, with the way nominations shook out, limited appears to be the only genre in which nothing really changed. I still expect all three to win, but “The Bear” and “Shōgun” might not sweep like we thought they would before Wednesday. And that’s a good thing!

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