Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025: See initial odds in 9 below-the-line categories [Updated October 7]
If the 2025 Oscars nominations were announced today, what would Gold Derby predict as the nominees and winners? Since our predictions center opened on July 1, 2024, more than 4,400 people have made their forecasts in the categories for picture, directing, acting, writing and animation (below-the-line categories were added in October). So who’s out front to claim these golden trophies, according to the Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025?
Below, see a snapshot in time of our racetrack odds for the 97th Academy Awards, updated on October 7, 2024. See how the odds and rankings have changed over time by examining our previous Oscar snapshots on July 3, July 9, July 16, July 23, July 29, August 6, August 19, August 28, September 11, September 19, September 23 and September 30.
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Now expected to receive a nomination since the last update: Saoirse Ronan in Best Actress for Nora Fingscheidt‘s drama film “The Outrun.” Also, you can take a peek at the initial odds in the below-the-line categories of Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing, Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Best Production Design, Best Score, Best Song, Best Sound and Best Visual Effects.
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Gold Derby’s Academy Awards odds are based on the combined forecasts of Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. We will continue to update the Oscar predictions center whenever new information is provided to us by the studios/campaigners.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees
1. “Anora” — 15/2
2. “Emilia Perez” — 17/2
3. “Conclave” — 17/2
4. “The Brutalist” — 9/1
5. “Sing Sing” — 19/2
6. “Dune: Part Two” — 10/1
7. “Blitz” — 21/2
8. “Nickel Boys” — 18/1
9. “Gladiator II” — 20/1
10. “A Complete Unknown” — 33/1
Predicted Spoilers
“A Real Pain,” “September 5,” “The Piano Lesson,” “The Room Next Door,” “Saturday Night,” “Joker: Folie à Deux,” “Wicked”
See more Best Picture contenders …
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Sean Baker (“Anora”) — 4/1
2. Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”) — 11/2
3. Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Perez”) — 6/1
4. Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) — 8/1
5. Steve McQueen (“Blitz”) — 17/2
Predicted Spoilers
Edward Berger (“Conclave”), Ridley Scott (“Gladiator II”), RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”), Greg Kwedar (“Sing Sing”), Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”)
See more Best Director contenders …
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Mikey Madison (“Anora”) — 4/1
2. Karla Sofia Gascon (“Emilia Perez”) — 9/2
3. Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) — 5/1
4. Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”) — 9/1
5. Saoirse Ronan (“The Outrun”) — 21/2
Predicted Spoilers
Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”), Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”), Demi Moore (“The Substance”), June Squibb (“Thelma”)
See more Best Actress contenders …
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) — 4/1
2. Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) — 4/1
3. Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”) — 9/2
4. Timothee Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”) — 11/2
5. Daniel Craig (“Queer”) — 9/1
Predicted Spoilers
Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”), John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”), Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”), Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker: Folie à Deux”), Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”)
See more Best Actor contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Zoe Saldana (“Emilia Perez”) — 39/10
2. Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) — 4/1
3. Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”) — 8/1
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”) — 8/1
5. Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”) — 9/1
Predicted Spoilers
Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”), Selena Gomez (“Emilia Perez”), Toni Collette (“Juror #2”), Joan Chen (“Didi”), Natasha Lyonne (“His Three Daughters”)
See more Best Supporting Actress contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) — 9/2
2. Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”) — 5/1
3. Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”) — 11/2
4. Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) — 15/2
5. Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”) — 19/2
Predicted Spoilers
Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”), Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”), Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”), John Lithgow (“Conclave”), Peter Sarsgaard (“September 5”)
See more Best Supporting Actor contenders …
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. “Sing Sing” — 39/10
2. “Conclave” — 4/1
3. “Nickel Boys” — 13/2
4. “Dune: Part Two” — 17/2
5. “Emilia Perez” — 19/2
Predicted Spoilers
“The Room Next Door,” “The Piano Lesson,” “Queer,” “Nightbitch,” “The Wild Robot”
See more Best Adapted Screenplay contenders …
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. “Anora” — 71/20
2. “The Brutalist” — 5/1
3. “A Real Pain” — 11/2
4. “Blitz” — 7/1
5. “Saturday Night” — 17/2
Predicted Spoilers
“Hard Truths,” “September 5,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” “The Substance,” “Challengers”
See more Best Original Screenplay contenders …
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Nominees
1. “The Brutalist” — 37/10
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 4/1
3. “Emilia Perez” — 13/2
4. “Maria” — 8/1
5. “Nickel Boys” — 17/2
Predicted Spoilers
“Conclave,” “Gladiator II,” “Nosferatu,” “Blitz,” “Anora”
See more Best Cinematography contenders …
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Nominees
1. “Wicked” — 4/1
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 9/2
3. “Gladiator II” — 5/1
4. “Maria” — 11/2
5. “Blitz” — 19/2
Predicted Spoilers
“Nosferatu,” “The Brutalist,” “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Perez”
See more Best Costume Design contenders …
BEST FILM EDITING
Predicted Nominees
1. “The Brutalist” — 39/10
2. “Anora” — 5/1
3. “Dune: Part Two” — 5/1
4. “Emilia Perez” — 13/2
5. “Conclave” — 15/2
Predicted Spoilers
“September 5,” “Blitz,” “Gladiator II,” “Challengers,” “Sing Sing”
See more Best Film Editing contenders …
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Nominees
1. “Dune: Part Two” — 4/1
2. “The Substance” — 5/1
3. “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” — 5/1
4. “Wicked” — 11/2
5. “Nosferatu” — 9/1
Predicted Spoilers
“A Different Man,” “The Apprentice,” “Joker: Folie à Deux,” “Emilia Perez,” “Maria”
See more Best Makeup & Hairstyling contenders …
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Nominees
1. “Dune: Part Two” — 18/5
2. “Gladiator II” — 9/2
3. “The Brutalist” — 5/1
4. “Wicked” — 13/2
5. “Blitz” — 13/2
Predicted Spoilers
“Conclave,” “Nosferatu,” “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” “Emilia Perez,” “Maria”
See more Best Production Design contenders …
BEST SCORE
Predicted Nominees
1. “Conclave” — 39/10
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 4/1
3. “The Brutalist” — 9/2
4. “Emilia Perez” — 7/1
5. “The Wild Robot” — 13/1
Predicted Spoilers
“Gladiator II,” “Saturday Night,” “Challengers,” “The Room Next Door,” “Blitz”
See more Best Score contenders …
BEST SONG
Predicted Nominees
1. “Emilia Perez” (“El Mal”) — 9/2
2. “The Wild Robot” (“Kiss the Sky”) — 5/1
3. “The Six Triple Eight” (“The Journey”) — 13/2
4. “Moana 2” (“We’re Back”) — 15/2
5. “Emilia Perez” (“Mi Camino”) — 8/1
Predicted Spoilers
“Sing Sing” (“Like a Bird”), “Will and Harper” (“Harper and Will Go West”), “Mufasa: The Lion King” (“I Always Wanted a Brother”), “Piece by Piece” (“Piece by Piece”), “Joker: Folie à Deux” (“Folie a Deux”)
See more Best Song contenders …
BEST SOUND
Predicted Nominees
1. “Dune: Part Two” — 71/20
2. “Gladiator II” — 5/1
3. “Blitz” — 6/1
4. “Emilia Perez” — 7/1
5. “Twisters” — 19/2
Predicted Spoilers
“Wicked,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” “The Brutalist”
See more Best Sound contenders …
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Nominees
1. “Dune: Part Two” — 17/5
2. “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” — 5/1
3. “Gladiator II” — 5/1
4. “Twisters” — 17/2
5. “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” — 14/1
Predicted Spoilers
“Mufasa: The Lion King,” “Here,” “Blitz,” “Wicked,” “Deadpool and Wolverine”
See more Best Visual Effects contenders …
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Nominees
1. “The Wild Robot” — 17/5
2. “Inside Out 2” — 4/1
3. “Memoir of a Snail” — 9/2
4. “Flow” — 6/1
5. “Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” — 8/1
Predicted Spoilers
“Moana 2,” “Piece by Piece,” “Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim,” “Transformers One,” “Despicable Me 4”
See more Best Animated Feature contenders …
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