Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025: Jacques Audiard (‘Emilia Perez’) ascends into Best Director lineup [Updated August 28]
If the 2025 Oscars nominations were announced today, what would Gold Derby predict would be the nominees and winners? Our predictions center officially opened on July 1, 2024 and already more than 2,900 people have made their nominations forecasts in the eight top categories for picture, directing, acting and writing. So who’s out front to claim these golden trophies, according to the Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025?
Below, see a snapshot in time of our Oscar racetrack odds, updated on August 28. (See how the odds and rankings have changed over time by examining our previous snapshots on July 3, July 9, July 16, July 23, July 29, August 6 and August 19.) Now expected to receive a nomination since the last update: French filmmaker Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Perez”) in Best Director, plus “The Piano Lesson” in Best Adapted Screenplay. “Emilia Perez” is a French musical crime comedy film inspired by an opera libretto; “The Piano Lesson” is a drama based on August Wilson‘s 1987 play.
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Gold Derby’s Academy Awards odds are based on the combined forecasts of Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. We will continue to update the predictions center whenever new information is provided to us by the studios/campaigners.
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BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees
1. “Sing Sing” — 15/2
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 8/1
3. “Blitz” — 9/1
4. “Conclave” — 9/1
5. “Anora” — 19/2
6. “Emilia Perez” — 11/1
7. “Nickel Boys” — 14/1
8. “Joker: Folie à Deux” — 16/1
9. “Gladiator II” — 18/1
10. “A Complete Unknown” — 28/1
Predicted Spoilers
“The Piano Lesson,” “A Real Pain,” “Wicked,” “The Room Next Door,” “Saturday Night”
See more Best Picture contenders …
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Steve McQueen (“Blitz”) — 9/2
2. Sean Baker (“Anora”) — 5/1
3. Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) — 6/1
4. Edward Berger (“Conclave”) — 15/2
5. Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Perez”) — 12/1
Predicted Spoilers
Greg Kwedar (“Sing Sing”), Ridley Scott (“Gladiator II”), Pedro Almodovar (“The Room Next Door”), Mohammad Rasoulof (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”), Marielle Heller (“Nightbitch”)
See more Best Director contenders …
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”) — 5/1
2. Mikey Madison (“Anora”) — 5/1
3. Karla Sofia Gascon (“Emilia Perez”) — 11/2
4. Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”) — 15/2
5. Lady Gaga (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) — 8/1
Predicted Spoilers
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”), Julianne Moore (“The Room Next Door”), Saoirse Ronan (“The Outrun”), June Squibb (“Thelma”), Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”)
See more Best Actress contenders …
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) — 7/2
2. Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) — 4/1
3. Timothee Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”) — 6/1
4. Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) — 13/2
5. John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”) — 19/2
Predicted Spoilers
Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”), Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”), Ethan Herisse (“Nickel Boys”), Jesse Eisenberg (“A Real Pain”), Gabriel LaBelle (“Saturday Night”)
See more Best Actor contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) — 39/10
2. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”) — 9/2
3. Zoe Saldana (“Emilia Perez”) — 5/1
4. Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”) — 11/2
5. Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”) — 13/1
Predicted Spoilers
Toni Collette (“Juror #2”), Selena Gomez (“Emilia Perez”), Joan Chen (“Didi”), Natasha Lyonne (“His Three Daughters”), Carrie Coon (“His Three Daughters”)
See more Best Supporting Actress contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”) — 37/10
2. Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”) — 9/2
3. Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) — 11/2
4. Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”) — 6/1
5. Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) — 8/1
Predicted Spoilers
John Lithgow (“Conclave”), Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”), Harris Dickinson (“Blitz”), Mark Eydelshteyn (“Anora”), Pedro Pascal (“Gladiator II”)
See more Best Supporting Actor contenders …
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. “Sing Sing” — 71/20
2. “Conclave” — 4/1
3. “Nickel Boys” — 11/2
4. “Dune: Part Two” — 9/1
5. “The Piano Lesson” — 9/1
Predicted Spoilers
“Nightbitch,” “The Room Next Door,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Gladiator II,” “Hit Man”
See more Best Adapted Screenplay contenders …
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. “Anora” — 18/5
2. “Blitz” — 9/2
3. “A Real Pain” — 11/2
4. “Emilia Perez” — 7/1
5. “Hard Truths” — 23/2
Predicted Spoilers
“Saturday Night,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” “Challengers,” “The Substance,” “Didi”
See more Best Original Screenplay contenders …
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