Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025: ‘A Real Pain’ leaps into Best Picture race [Updated July 16]

Marcus James Dixon
·5 min read

If the 2025 Oscar nominations were announced today, what would Gold Derby predict would be the nominees and winners? Our predictions center officially opened on July 1, 2024 and already more than 1,800 people have made their nominations forecasts in the eight top categories for picture, directing, acting and writing. So who’s out front to claim these golden trophies, according to the initial Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025?

Below, see a snapshot in time of our Oscar racetrack odds, updated on July 16. (See how the odds and rankings have changed over time by examining our previous snapshots on July 3 and July 9.) Now expected to receive a nomination since the last update: “A Real Pain” in Best Picture. The film stars writer/director/producer Jesse Eisenberg as David, who reunites with his cousin Benji (Kieran Culkin) in Poland, as they honor the life of their grandmother. It will be released on October 18 by Searchlight Pictures.

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Gold Derby’s odds are based on the combined forecasts of Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. We will be updating the predictions center weekly by adding, deleting and changing contenders whenever new information is provided to us by the studios/campaigners.

SEE Oscars 2025: Make your extremely early nominee predictions today!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees

1. “Sing Sing” — 15/2
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 8/1
3. “Blitz” — 17/2
4. “Anora” — 9/1
5. “Conclave” — 19/2
6. “Emilia Perez” — 13/1
7. “Joker: Folie à Deux” — 15/1
8. “Nickel Boys” — 18/1
9. “Gladiator II” — 18/1
10. “A Real Pain” — 25/1

Predicted Spoilers

“The Piano Lesson,” “Hard Truths,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” “Wicked,” “Nightbitch”
See more Best Picture contenders …

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Steve McQueen (“Blitz”) — 9/2
2. Sean Baker (“Anora”) — 9/2
3. Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) — 11/2
4. Edward Berger (“Conclave”) — 17/2
5. Greg Kwedar (“Sing Sing”) — 9/1

Predicted Spoilers

Ridley Scott (“Gladiator II”), Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Perez”), Mohammad Rasoulof (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”), Todd Phillips (“Joker: Folie à Deux”), Marielle Heller (“Nightbitch”)
See more Best Director contenders …

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

1. Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”) — 5/1
2. Mikey Madison (“Anora”) — 5/1
3. Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”) — 13/2
4. Lady Gaga (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) — 7/1
5. Karla Sofia Gascon (“Emilia Perez”) — 7/1

Predicted Spoilers

Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”), Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”), June Squibb (“Thelma”), Saoirse Ronan (“The Outrun”), Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”)
See more Best Actress contenders …

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) — 69/20
2. Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) — 4/1
3. Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) — 6/1
4. John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”) — 8/1
5. Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”) — 17/2

Predicted Spoilers

Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”), Nicholas Hoult (“Juror #2”), Jesse Plemons (“Kinds of Kindness”), Andrew Garfield (“We Live in Time”), Ethan Herisse (“Nickel Boys”)
See more Best Actor contenders …

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

1. Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) — 4/1
2. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”) — 9/2
3. Zoe Saldana (“Emilia Perez”) — 11/2
4. Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”) — 6/1
5. Toni Collette (“Juror #2”) — 12/1

Predicted Spoilers

Julianne Moore (“The Room Next Door”), Joan Chen (“Didi”), Selena Gomez (“Emilia Perez”), Carrie Coon (“His Three Daughters”), Margaret Qualley (“The Substance”)
See more Best Supporting Actress contenders …

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”) — 37/10
2. Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”) — 5/1
3. Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) — 5/1
4. Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”) — 7/1
5. Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) — 15/2

Predicted Spoilers

John Lithgow (“Conclave”), Harris Dickinson (“Blitz”), Paul Raci (“Sing Sing”), Pedro Pascal (“Gladiator II”), Mark Eydelshteyn (“Anora”)
See more Best Supporting Actor contenders …

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

1. “Sing Sing” — 71/20
2. “Conclave” — 9/2
3. “Nickel Boys” — 6/1
4. “Nightbitch” — 15/2
5. “Dune: Part Two” — 17/2

Predicted Spoilers

“The Piano Lesson,” “Hit Man,” “Joker: Folie à Deux,” “Gladiator II,” “Here”
See more Best Adapted Screenplay contenders …

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

1. “Anora” — 18/5
2. “Blitz” — 4/1
3. “A Real Pain” — 11/2
4. “Hard Truths” — 15/2
5. “Emilia Perez” — 8/1

Predicted Spoilers

“The Room Next Door,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” “The Substance,” “Juror #2,” “Challengers”
See more Best Original Screenplay contenders …

PREDICT the 2025 Oscar nominees through January 17

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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