Grammys Album of the Year nominations predictions: Could the category be all women?
This year’s Album of the Year lineup at the Grammys is sure to be a memorable one. The lineup could be entirely female, which would be a first for the Grammys since the expansion of the big four categories to eight nominees. And it would be a leap forward from the days when the Recording Academy’s president was telling the underrepresented gender to “step up.” But a lot needs to line up for the category to turn out that way.
Let’s start with the locks, the albums that will not miss for anything in the world. Perhaps the most obvious is Billie Eilish’s “Hit Me Hard and Soft,” the singer-songwriter’s third album. There’s no reason to doubt Eilish: she’s a previous winner for her first album and a nominee for her second, and this new album was a critically beloved commercial success. The record currently has a whopping 89 on Metacritic. It also produced the hit singles “Lunch” and “Birds of a Feather,” the latter of which has become one of Eilish’s most successful songs ever and her biggest hit on pop radio. So it’s practically impossible for her not to get this nomination.
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Another lock is Beyoncé for her country crossover “Cowboy Carter.” She is quite literally the biggest Grammy winner ever, and the album was a major event. “Cowboy Carter” is also one of the year’s most acclaimed records with an astounding 91 score on Metacritic. On top of that, it could get support from a lot of genre blocs within the academy, from pop and R&B (who usually nominate Beyoncé’s work) to country and Americana. It also topped the Billboard 200, and includes the chart-topping single “Texas Hold ‘Em.”
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Taylor Swift is also a Grammy favorite, who will likely get in even though “The Tortured Poets Department” might be weaker than her previous record, “Midnights.” Regardless, “Tortured Poets” was a smash, topping the Billboard 200 for 15 weeks, her longest run ever at number-one. And “Fortnight,” the album’s lead single, was also relatively successful, spending a couple of weeks atop the Billboard Hot 100, so even if critics weren’t as fond of the album, it’s still unlikely the academy would drop Swift so fast, especially with an album this successful.
A couple of newer names will also easily make the final eight. Sabrina Carpenter’s “Short n’ Sweet” achieved four hit singles including the top-three songs “Taste,” “Please Please Please,” and “Espresso.” Carpenter is also what the Grammys usually look for in a breakout: a strong vocalist and songwriter, with promotion everywhere. The album also topped the Billboard 200 for multiple weeks, and is still holding strong.
Similarly, you shouldn’t doubt Chappell Roan’s “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess.” She has had a breakthrough year as well, and the album has been a fixture in the top 10 for months. Her top-10 single “Good Luck, Babe!,” although not part of “Midwest Princess,” will also help keep her foremost in voters’ minds. And the album could benefit from its important themes of self-discovery and queerness.
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After those five, the race gets tricky. A lot of people are banking on Charli XCX’s “Brat,” especially after the cultural moment it had with “Brat summer” and its association with Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign. It is also the year’s most acclaimed album by critics, with an all-timer 95 score on Metacritic. Those are good enough reasons to predict a nom. However, it’s still a hyperpop album by an artist with little Grammy history, and it’s bound to be misunderstood by a lot of older voters. Plus, unlike other pop nominees in the category historically, “Brat” hasn’t really dominated the singles charts; its biggest single, “360,” hasn’t even reached the top 40 on the Hot 100. Still, I think it will have support from a mixture of voters from different genres.
Another pop star in a similar predicament is Ariana Grande with “Eternal Sunshine.” The album is critically acclaimed and a multi-week number-one. However, it seems to have fallen by the wayside unlike the albums by her aforementioned pop counterparts (it’s currently down at number-90 on the Billboard 200). This means it could be overlooked. After all, each voter only has five slots to nominate albums, and a lot of pop voters, Grande’s biggest supporters, might have focused on Eilish, Roan, Swift, Beyoncé, Carpenter, and Charli and thus left Grande out. Still, this year has been dominated by pop, so it’s reasonable to expect that pop will dominate the category. Grande also had a lot of promotion around the nominations voting period, including the release of live versions of songs from the album and a viral “Saturday Night Live” hosting gig, which could’ve helped keep voters interested.
Outside of pop, the possibilities are more limited. R&B often gets at least one slot, but who would it be? Perhaps Childish Gambino, as he is a previous general field winner and previous nominee in this category. “Bando Stone and the New World” wasn’t as popular as some of his past work, but name recognition can take you a long way with the Grammys. The album could also be supported by a combination of R&B, rap, and even rock voters, since it leans into alternative and rock sounds at times.
Usher could also sneak in with “Coming Home” coming off the hype of multiple tributes and a Super Bowl Halftime Show headlining gig. “Coming Home” would be reminiscent of Mary J. Blige‘s “Good Morning Gorgeous,” which was a surprise nominee two years ago after her Super Bowl performance, and Usher has as many hits off this new record as Blige did off of hers.
Then there’s Black Pumas with “Chronicles of a Diamond.” The band isn’t R&B, per se, but that’s where their album ended up on this year’s ballot. If enough R&B voters back it, combined with rock and Americana academy members, it might be enough to get a nomination. It wouldn’t be their first nomination in this category, after all.
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In the alternative and rock world, there are two previous nominees who could make an appearance. Vampire Weekend’s “Only God Was Above Us” was celebrated by critics and includes the triple-A hit “Capricorn.” The band was previously nominated for their 2019 release “Father of the Bride,” so their latest could get the same support. Likewise, Brittany Howard’s “What Now” follows her Grammy-winning “Jaime.” Howard is a rock and alternative favorite, and she has also been nominated in R&B and Americana categories, so it wouldn’t be unusual for her to grab a spot with such wide-ranging support. And she was previously nominated in the category for “Sound and Color” with her former band Alabama Shakes.
Two other contenders may be on the cusp. Jacob Collier was nominated in 2021 for “Djesse Vol. 3” (during the nomination review committee era, it should be noted). He is less familiar to casual music fans than a lot of the other names in contention. But “Djesse Vol. 4” has an extensive list of Grammy-winning collaborators, including Coldplay and John Legend.
The other possibility is Chris Stapleton, with his newest record “Higher.” Country usually struggles in the general field, but the genre’s big year might make a lot more voters inclined to invest in it. If they do, Stapleton has all the makings of a serious contender: he’s a previous nominee, and has the support of his peers (“Higher” won the ACM Award for Album of the Year and will likely win the CMA Award as well).
My final predictions:
Album of the Year
Beyoncé — “Cowboy Carter”
Sabrina Carpenter — “Short n’ Sweet”
Charli XCX — “Brat”
Billie Eilish — “Hit Me Hard and Soft”
Ariana Grande — “Eternal Sunshine”
Chappell Roan — “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess”
Taylor Swift — “The Tortured Poets Department”
Usher — “Coming Home”
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