Grammys alternative nominations predictions: Past champs St. Vincent vs. Brittany Howard vs. Vampire Weekend
Sometimes the alternative music categories at the Grammys are easy to predict. Most people knew Fiona Apple’s massively lauded “Fetch The Bolt Cutters” was winning Best Alternative Album in 2021, for instance. However, this year the field is different, with a few returning favorites who have enough disadvantages to make the race quite murky. Newer acts have their fair share of issues too.
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Three major players would seem to be going head-to-head (to-head) for album honors. Vampire Weekend’s “Only God Was Above Us” has become arguably their most acclaimed album, scoring 88 on Metacritic. The record has also done well commercially, better than the other two academy darlings in the category, peaking at number-27 on the Billboard 200. Additionally, the success of their single “Capricorn” (a contender for Best Alternative Performance), which peaked at number-four on the adult alternative chart, could boost the band’s chances. They’ve also had the strongest campaign, performing on “Saturday Night Live” and at the Olympics, among other stops. And the band has already won Best Alternative Album twice, for their last two albums.
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But there’s also Brittany Howard, who will be competing with “What Now,” her sophomore solo project. Howard has won multiple times in the rock and alternative field, including Best Rock Song for “Stay High” and Best Alternative Album for “Sound and Color” with her band Alabama Shakes. “What Now” didn’t necessarily perform well commercially, not charting at all on the Billboard 200, but it did achieve significant acclaim with an 88 on Metacritic. The album’s lead single, “What Now” (which is competing in the rock categories instead of alternative), also has the advantage of being the biggest hit out of any of the big three contenders, topping the adult alternative chart.
The last of the big three is St. Vincent, who has won Best Alternative Album twice. She is back with “All Born Screaming,” which also received massive acclaim (88 on Metacritic). The album did enter the Billboard 200, debuting and peaking at number-86. However, the single “Broken Man” (competing in rock instead of alternative) didn’t reach the top 10 of the adult alternative chart, which could hurt, and her Alternative Performance submission, “Flea,” wasn’t a particularly big hit. That said, she has the strongest track record of wins, with her past three albums all claiming at least one trophy. So, we have Vampire Weekend leading in sales, St. Vincent perhaps leading in acclaim, and Howard leading in singles success, resulting in one of the most ferocious battles this year.
You could also make a case for icon Beth Gibbons, from Portishead, for her album “Lives Outgrown.” This is Gibbons’s debut as a soloist, and she has a strong narrative, being overdue for a win. The record has also been lauded, earning an 88 on Metacritic (which seems to be a popular number for acclaimed alternative releases), and was shortlisted for the prestigious Mercury Prize. Gibbons’ disadvantage is that she doesn’t really chart hit singles, but the overdue narrative could compensate for that.
Who else is in contention? Singer-songwriter Clairo has never been nominated, but that could change with her newest record, “Charm.” The album peaked at number-eight on the Billboard 200 and includes the triple A top-10 single “Sexy to Someone,” as well as the TikTok-viral “Juna.” It was also well liked by critics, scoring 82 on Metacritic.
The Marías have had a great year with their album “Submarine,” which peaked at number-17 on the Billboard 200. The album lacks the overwhelming critical praise of the top contenders, though it was still well reviewed. But it boasts the hit “No One Noticed,” one of the few songs on the alternative ballot to chart on the Hot 100.
There’s also breakout Beabadoobee with her album “This Is How Tomorrow Moves.” The record peaked at number-34 on the Billboard 200 and earned good reviews, scoring 80 on Metacritic. Another factor in its favor is that the single “Take a Bite” (submitted in the rock categories) was an adult alternative hit, peaking at number-two there, and the new single “Beaches” is also climbing the chart.
A few contenders are only eligible in Alternative Performance, with their parent albums competing in different genre fields. Cage the Elephant’s “Neon Pill” topped the alternative and adult alternative airplay charts for four weeks each. With such a high profile, you should expect a nomination for them. There’s also Idles, who have their hit “Dancer” featuring LCD Soundsystem competing. The band has been nominated in the rock field before, and LCD has been popular in the alternative categories overall.
Bleachers, the Jack Antonoff project, is also here with “Alma Matters,” which features un-credited contributions from Lana Del Rey. Last but certainly not least is PJ Harvey, who is a perennial favorite, and whose “I Inside the Old I Dying” is aiming for an Alternative Performance nom. The song’s parent album was nominated last year for Best Alternative Album.
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My finale alternative music predictions:
Best Alternative Music Performance
Cage the Elephant, “Neon Pill”
Clairo, “Juna”
Brittany Howard, “Red Flags”
St. Vincent, “Flea”
Vampire Weekend, “Capricorn”
Best Alternative Music Album
Beabadoobee, “This Is How Tomorrow Moves”
Beth Gibbons, “Lives Outgrown”
Brittany Howard, “What Now”
St. Vincent, “All Born Screaming”
Vampire Weekend, “Only God Was Above Us”
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