Grammys Best Alternative Music Album predictions: Brittany Howard, Vampire Weekend, St. Vincent are early favorites
The alternative music scene is having a great 2024. This year has given us a great array of albums in the genre, including the return of many iconic artists from the past 15 years. With that said, all eyes so far are on what seems to be a three-way race for the Best Alternative Music Album Grammy, which is led by three previous winners looking to repeat.
The first of the three is Brittany Howard, who is sure to be nominated for her sophomore solo project, “What Now.” She previously swept the alternative and rock categories with her band Alabama Shakes back in 2016. Her debut solo album, “Jaime,” was also a success at the Grammys, earning five nominations including a win for Best Rock Song (“Stay High”). Howard was surely next in line that year for Best Alternative Album, which went to Fiona Apple (“Fetch the Bolt Cutters“), whom Howard beat for Rock Song, so there’s a lot of passion for her overall in the Recording Academy. “What Now” has also been massively acclaimed, earning an 88 on Metacritic. The album additionally notched a big radio hit, with its title track topping the Adult Alternative Airplay chart, her second chart-topper there after “Stay High.” Plus, since Howard hasn’t claimed Best Alternative Album in eight years, and never as a soloist, maybe voters can justify giving her another win over more recent champs. However, the album didn’t chart on the Billboard 200, which could limit its visibility.
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The next of the top three contenders is Vampire Weekend, who recently released their fifth record, “Only God Was Above Us.” This new record comes after their 2019 effort, “Father of the Bride,” which took home Best Alternative Music Album. Their album before that one, “Modern Vampires of the City,” also won the award, so the band is two-for-two. “Only God Was Above Us” was received with ample critical praise, scoring an 88 on Metacritic, a career high. While the album is their least commercially successful, it peaked in the top 30 on the Billboard 200, higher than the other two leading contenders this year. As such, the record might end up being the best known out of the eventual nominees. It also features the rock hit “Capricorn,” which has so far peaked at number-four on the Adult Alternative Airplay chart and is still growing, while also showing up on the Rock Airplay chart.
Last but not least is St. Vincent, who recently returned with her phenomenal “All Born Screaming.” The album has the highest Metacritic score out of the big three: 89. That also makes it one of St. Vincent’s most acclaimed ever. The album is much more rock-oriented than her past couple of records, which could be an advantage with voters now that the alternative and rock categories belong to the same field and thus share the same pool of voters. “All Born Screaming” debuted in the top 100 of the Billboard 200 — at number-86 to be exact — quite lower than a lot of her previous albums, but still in a decent range for visibility. The album also features the single “Broken Man,” which has so far peaked in the top 30 of the Rock Airplay chart and top 20 of the Adult Alternative Airplay chart. So, while it is marginally the most critically acclaimed of the three, it’s the least successful in terms of singles.
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Are there any more strong contenders right now? There are a few who could be placed in alternative but may end up elsewhere. For example, Maggie Rogers’s new album, “Don’t Forget Me,” is her most acclaimed, sitting at a great 84 on Metacritic, and is also one of the biggest in the alt world this year, peaking in the top-50 on the Billboard 200 and notching a number-one Adult Alternative Airplay hit with its title track. That said, the record could compete in Americana or pop, given that it is a folkier singer-songwriter effort than most contenders here.
An even bigger contender is Chappell Roan, the viral sensation who has achieved great success with her debut album, “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess.” But she might be slotted in pop categories rather than alternative. If she does compete for Best Alternative Album, though, she’s in it to win it: her album has so far peaked at number-28 on the Billboard 200 and is still growing, and Roan’s newest single, “Good Luck, Babe!,” has so far reached number-44 on the Hot 100. Bleachers‘ self-titled album is in a similar situation, bordering between alternative and baroque pop. The album includes two top-30 hits on the Adult Alternative Airplay chart: the top-five “Modern Girl” and the rising “Tiny Moves.” It also peaked at number-62 on the Billboard 200, higher than St. Vincent and Howard.
As the year progresses, we’ll see how things evolve. But so far it’s looking like a very competitive year, especially with so little gap between the top three contenders in terms of acclaim, and with each one having their own unique advantages.
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