Grammys pop nominations predictions: Taylor Swift may underperform in crowded field
2024 has been a great year for pop music, with efforts from Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, Charli XCX, Ariana Grande, and Billie Eilish all releasing to high acclaim, not to mention major singles and albums from the likes of Benson Boone and Taylor Swift. But in such a stacked year, how will voters decide the final five for each pop category?
This year’s biggest pop star is undoubtedly Carpenter, and the Grammys will surely acknowledge it. She has achieved success with her breakout sixth album, “Short n’ Sweet,” which includes the top-three hits “Taste,” “Espresso,” and “Please Please Please.” She’s a lock for both Best Pop Solo Performance (“Espresso”) and Best Pop Vocal Album (“Short n’ Sweet”) nominations, and if voters are craving even more of her, they might even nominate her Girl In Red collaboration, “You Need Me Now?,” for Best Pop Duo/Group Performance.
More from GoldDerby
Carpenter will very likely be joined by another 2024 breakout, Roan. She has had a great year too, with her hit “Good Luck, Babe!” becoming one of the year’s defining hits, and a definite nominee for Best Pop Solo Performance. Likewise, Roan’s debut, “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess,” is definitely a top-three contender for Best Pop Vocal Album, having been a fixture near the top of the Billboard 200 in recent weeks.
Three returning champs will likely round out the lineup for Best Pop Vocal Album. Eilish’s “Hit Me Hard and Soft” has been a huge success, remaining in Billboard’s top 10 after 22 weeks, and will surely net Eilish her third nomination here. However, while she might struggle to win against the buzzier new acts, the single “Birds of a Feather” might be on its way to a Best Pop Solo Performance win; at the very least she’s sure to make a play for it with a nomination. The song is currently at number-two on the Hot 100, but considering how Eilish has been a steady grower on the charts, don’t be surprised if it’s number-one by final-round voting. And if voters are really feeling Eilish, there’s also a chance her track “L’Amour de ma Vie (Extended Version)” gets into Best Dance Pop Recording.
There’s also Grande, who has had a strong year with her “Eternal Sunshine” era, paired with the movie “Wicked.” Grande will likely, at the very least, get her two usual nominations, for Best Pop Solo Performance (“We Can’t Be Friends”) and Best Pop Vocal Album (“Eternal Sunshine”). Grande is also a pretty sure bet for Best Dance Pop Recording for her hit “Yes, And?” and is definitely a contender for a win there, which could be a consolation prize if pop voters go in different directions in other categories. If voters are especially enthusiastic, she could also appear in Best Pop Duo/Group Performance for her Brandy and Monica-assisted “The Boy Is Mine” remix.
And of course, there’s Swift. It’s unlikely the pop star wins anything major this year, but “The Tortured Poets Department” is the bestselling album of the year, which is enough to get her into Best Pop Vocal Album. If there’s extra love for her this year, we could also see “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart” pop up in the stacked Best Pop Solo Performance lineup. Swift is also a likely nominee for Best Pop Duo/Group Performance for “Fortnight” featuring Post Malone, although there’s a catch. Beyoncé submitted her own Post Malone collaboration, “Levii’s Jeans,” to the category, and since the category only allows for one nomination per artist, whichever of the two Malone collabs gets more votes will get the nomination. So if voters go all in on “Cowboy Carter,” Swift might get locked out of the race. Beyoncé is also a strong possibility in Best Pop Solo Performance for her beloved album track “Bodyguard,” although the song not being a breakout hit might hurt it. Still, the success of “Cowboy Carter” could be enough.
SIGN UPfor Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions
It has been a big year for Charli XCX, and voters are sure to take notice. Her most certain nomination is “Von Dutch” in Best Dance Pop Recording, where she’ll go head-to-head with Grande for the win. But she might also get into Best Pop Duo/Group Performance with “Guess” featuring the aforementioned Billie Eilish. Hell, she could even sneak into Best Pop Solo Performance with the viral “Apple,” especially thanks to its TikTok popularity. Possibly joining Charli in the dance pop race are some other electropop artists, like tourmate Troye Sivan (“Got Me Started”), Madison Beer (“Make You Mine”), and David Guetta (“I Don’t Wanna Wait”).
Let’s conclude with a few other artists with enough buzz to sneak into certain categories. Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’s “Die with a Smile” has positioned itself as the song to beat in Best Pop Duo/Group Performance, not only due to its commercial success, but to how accessible the adult contemporary throwback ballad is. Benson Boone’s “Fireworks and Rollerblades” will likely not get into Best Pop Vocal Album, but his smash hit “Beautiful Things” is a good bet for a Best Pop Solo Performance nomination.
Coldplay are pop favorites for nominations, so expect “feelslikeimfallinginlove” to sneak into Best Pop Duo/Group Performance. Gracie Abrams is having a banner year, so don’t be shocked by “The Secret of Us” sneaking into Best Pop Vocal Album. Last but not least, there’s Dua Lipa, who has had a more muted era than her Grammy-winning “Future Nostalgia,” but could still show up in Best Pop Vocal Album (“Radical Optimism”) or even Pop Solo Performance (“HoudiniI”).
SEEBillie Eilish Grammy submissions: Another clean sweep of Album, Record, and Song of the Year?
My final predictions in the four pop races:
Best Pop Solo Performance
Benson Boone, “Beautiful Things”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Billie Eilish, “Birds Of A Feather”
Ariana Grande, “we can’t be friends (wait for your love)”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Best Pop Duo/Group Performance
Charli xcx feat. Billie Eilish, “Guess”
Coldplay, “feelslikeimfallinginlove”
Ariana Grande with Brandy & Monica, “The Boy Is Mine”
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die with a Smile”
Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone, “Fortnight”
Best Dance Pop Recording
Madison Beer, “Make You Mine”
Charli xcx, “Von dutch”
Ariana Grande, “yes, and?”
David Guetta feat. OneRepublic, “I Don’t Wanna Wait”
Troye Sivan, “Got Me Started”
Best Pop Vocal Album
Sabrina Carpenter, “Short n’ Sweet”
Billie Eilish, “Hit Me Hard and Soft”
Ariana Grande, “Eternal Sunshine”
Chappell Roan, “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess”
Taylor Swift, “The Tortured Poets Department”
Best of GoldDerby
Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
Solve the daily Crossword
