‘Joker: Folie à Deux’ Proves Highly Anticipated Sequels Are Not Immune to Total Disaster
Give credit to Warner Bros.: When it greenlit the initially unplanned sequel to “The Joker” (over $1 billion worldwide will do that), the studio allowed Todd Phillips to do something new. (“Megalopolis” director Francis Ford Coppola also gave himself a pat on the back when he praised the director for “always being one step ahead of the audience.”)
“Joker: Folie à Deux” added Lady Gaga; musical elements logically followed. So did a Venice premiere, itself a repeat of the original. And that’s when history stopped repeating itself: Where “Joker” won the festival’s Golden Lion, the sequel received a critical beat-down that echoed all the way to the $40 million-or-less opening weekend.
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This summer, the expectation was $250 million-$300 million total gross in the U.S./Canada based on trailer reactions, the strength of the earlier film, and the box-office revival witnessed in Disney’s R-rated “Deadpool & Wolverine” (and more recently, Warners’ own “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.”)
However, the new film also received a rare D Cinemascore, unprecedented for a title of this expense ($190 million plus marketing), pedigree, and expectation. After $20 million in previews and Friday gross (down from 2019), it fell 45 percent Saturday. The studio guesses a 30 percent drop for Sunday; others predict a larger plunge.
Whether the weekend reaches $38 million or $40 million doesn’t matter much; these are horrible numbers. With an initial $81 million foreign (consistent with the 2019 share, though much lower as well), it’s around $121 million worldwide. But since the total investment could reach $300 million or more, and the studio receives perhaps a little more than half in film rental, it’s headed for a loss.
Touted as one of the two October blockbusters (Sony’s “Venom: The Last Dance” on October 25 still looks strong), the “Joker” disappointment will resonate beyond the immediate financial shortfall: When an expensive would-be sure-fire franchise hit filmed for IMAX falls short, it’s a very bad look.
The business needs consistency, not shocks to the system. How will Warner Bros. react? Occasionally, originals work (“It Ends with Us”); many more make barely a ripple. The whole point of making a costly sequel is it can’t be a total disaster. If nothing else, “Joker: Folie à Deux” proved that is not the case.
“White Bird: A Wonder Sequel” (Lionsgate) is both a prequel and sequel to 2017’s “Wonder,” which grossed $132 million domestic; it received an A+ Cinemascore. It eked out a $1.5 million gross in 1,018 theaters. It still dropped 24 percent Saturday, so how much did the A+ help? It continues the troubling trend of films with adult appeal (it stars Helen Mirren), irrespective of good reviews and cast, failing to find traction.
Another example is “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics), critically acclaimed and stars Saorise Ronan as a potential actress awards contender, which managed only $334,000 in 508 theaters. That follows last week’s flop of “Lee” (Roadside Attractions) starring Kate Winslet. The third week expansion of “A Different Man” (A24) managed $186,000 in 265 theaters.
Specialized and limited titles had a few bright spots. GKids opened the 57-minute anime “Look Back” in two theaters for $72,724 (it plays limited shows Sunday and Monday in more locations). Next week’s wide break will tell much more, but Sony’s “Saturday Night” did $280,000 in 21 theaters. “The Substance” (MUBI) grossed $1,347,000 to drop 35 percent despite losing over 60 percent of its theaters its third week (it’s now just under $10 million). “My Old Ass” (MGM Amazon) is approaching $5 million in more limited play.
One oddity stands out. “Sam and Colby: Legends of the Paranormal” played at 302 Cinemark theaters, with the expanded version of the popular YouTube program landing at #6 with $2,150,000 including Thursday shows. Is this the future? It’s a nice extra bump, but nothing that can sustain an industry that’s trying to claw its way back to $10 billion annually.
“The Wild Robot” (Universal) at #2 did $18.7 million, for $64 million in through 10 days. “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” is third, still over $10 million in week five, for a $265 million total. The surprisingly strong “Speak No Evil” (Universal), now out on PVOD, is #5, down only 34 percent. “Megalopolis” went from bad to worse to #10 with just over $1 million and $6.5 million total. Expect most theaters to drop it by Friday.
The weekend came to $90 million, up $17 million from last year. Year to date remains 11 percent down, with the next two weeks likely to fall short of 2023.
Top 10
1. Joker: Folie à Deux (WB) NEW – Cinemascore: D; Metacritic: 45; Est. budget: $190 million
$40,000,000 in 4,102 theaters; PTA (per theater): $9,751; Cumulative: $40,000,000
2. The Wild Robot (Universal) Week 2; Last weekend #1
$18,700,000 (-48%) in 3,997 (+35) theaters; PTA: $4,679; Cumulative: $63,980,000
3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (Warner Bros.) Week 5; Last weekend #2
$10,325,000 (-36%) in 3,576 (-228) theaters; PTA: $2,887; Cumulative: $265,506,000
4. Transformers One (Paramount) Week 3; Last weekend #3
$5,350,000 (-42%) in 3,106 (-864) theaters; PTA: $1,722; Cumulative: $47,221,000
5. Speak No Evil (Universal) Week 4; Last weekend #5; also on PVOD
$2,800,000 (-34%) in 2,279 (-392) theaters; PTA: $1,229; Cumulative: $32,580,000
6. Sam and Colby: Legends of the Paranormal (Cinemark) NEW
$1,756,000 in 302 theaters; PTA: $5,952; Cumulative: $2,150,000
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (Disney) Week 11; Last weekend #7; also on PVOD
$1,526,000 (-45%) in 1,605 (-370) theaters; PTA: $; Cumulative: $633,839,000
8. White Bird (Lionsgate) NEW – Cinemascore: A+; Metacritic: 52
$1,530,000 in 1,018 theaters; PTA: $1,503; Cumulative: $1,530,000
9. The Substance (MUBI) Week 3; Last weekend #10
$1,347,000 (-35%) in 700 (-1,012) theaters; PTA: $2,056; Cumulative: $9,732,000
10. Megalopolis (Lionsgate) Week 2; Last weekend #6
$1,050,000 (-74%) in 1,854 (no change) theaters; PTA: $566; Cumulative: $6,489,000
Other specialized/independent titles
Films (limited, expansions of limited) are listed by week in release, starting with those opened this week; after the first three weeks, only films with grosses over $5,000 are listed. Metacritic scores and initial film festivals recorded when available.
Look Back (GKids) NEW – Metacritic: 90; Festivals include: Annecy 2024
$72,724 in 2 theaters; PTA: $36,362
The Outrun (Sony Pictures Classics) NEW – Metacritic: 73; Festivals include: Sundance, Berlin, Telluride 2024
$334,249 in 508 theaters; PTA: $658
Nurse Unseen (RBL) NEW – Festivals include: Cleveland 2023
$10,000 in 1 theater; PTA: $10,000
Separated (Submarine Deluxe) NEW – Metacritic: 70; Festivals include: Venice, Telluride 2024
$8,766 in 1 theater; PTA: $8,766
Leap of Faith (Picturehouse) NEW
$31,530 in 7 theaters; PTA: $4,504
Daaaaaali! (Music Box) NEW – Metacritic: 74; Festivals include: Venice 2023
$3,200 in 7 theaters; PTA: $457
Saturday Night (Sony) NEW – Week 2
$280,000 in 21 (+16) theaters; PTA: $13,333; Cumulative: $683,000
Devara: Part 1 (Prathyangira) Week 2
$ in 380 (-660) theaters; PTA: $; Cumulative: $
Lee (Roadside Attractions) Week 2
$285,050 in 465 (-389) theaters; PTA: $606; Cumulative: $1,397,000
Vindicating Trump (SDG) Week 2
$153,000 in 429 (-508) theaters; PTA: $357; Cumulative: $1,234,000
Veteran 2: I, the Executioner (Bluefox) Week 2
$55,833 in 24 (-27) theaters; PTA: $2,328; Cumulative: $251,566
A Different Man (A24) Week 3
$186,401 in 265 (+242) theaters; PTA: $703; Cumulative: $373,251
In the Summers (Music Box) Week 3
$10,100 in 15 (-10) theaters; Cumulative: $53,584
My Old Ass (MGM Amazon) Week 4
$908,376 (-%) in 1,205 (-185); PTA: $; Cumulative: $4,514,000
Am I Racist? (SDG) Week 4
$387,000 in 562 (-688) theaters; Cumulative: $11,862,000
Faith of Angels (Purdie) Week 4
$63,738 in 180 (-144) theaters; Cumulative: $485,559
Reagan (Showbiz Direct) Week 6
$317,025 in 625 (-477) theaters; Cumulative: $29,002,000
Sing Sing (A24) Week 13
$7,411 in 5 (-8) theaters; Cumulative: $2,756,000
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