Marianne Jean-Baptiste (‘Hard Truths’) climbs into Best Actress top 5 at Oscars

It’s been a gradual climb for Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Gold Derby’s Oscar odds for Best Actress, but it has paid off. The star of Mike Leigh‘s latest film, “Hard Truths,” now ranks among the top five likely nominees according to the combined predictions of thousands of our users. As of this writing she’s tied with Saoirse Ronan (“The Outrun”) at 11/1 odds.

Two months ago, on September 6, Jean-Baptiste was down in ninth place with 30/1 odds in the Best Actress race. A month later, on October 6, she was up to seventh place with 16/1 odds. Now she has finally cracked the top five with 17 Expert journalists predicting her nomination and one, Tariq Khan (Gold Derby), betting on her to win. This would be her second career nomination, following her Best Supporting Actress bid for Leigh’s lauded “Secrets and Lies” (1996). She would be Leigh’s third leading lady to be recognized by the academy.

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Brenda Blethyn earned a Best Actress nom for “Secrets and Lies” following a flurry of critics award citations, a Golden Globe, and a Cannes Film Festival prize. She won the BAFTA Award too. It was by far Leigh’s most successful film at the Oscars overall; to date it’s his only nominee for Best Picture. Alas, Blethyn ended up losing to Frances McDormand (“Fargo”). Eight years later Leigh helmed “Vera Drake,” which brought Imelda Staunton to the Oscars in the Best Actress race. Like Blethyn, she had been adored by critics groups and won the BAFTA, though Staunton’s film festival victory came from Venice instead of Cannes. But she was bested by Hilary Swank (“Million Dollar Baby”).

“Hard Truths” was rejected by both Cannes and Venice, but Jean-Baptiste is nevertheless off to a good start on the awards circuit. She picked up Best Lead Performance noms from both the British Independent Film Awards and the Gotham Awards. And judging from the film’s current MetaCritic score of 87, there’s a decent chance she’ll be feted by critics groups too. Her performance has already been called “Oscar-worthy,” “riveting,” and “brutally good.” And the film hasn’t even opened yet. It hits New York theaters on December 6, then goes wide on January 10. So there’s plenty of time for the actress to continue her climb. Slow and steady could very well win the race.

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