Morgan Wallen or Luke Combs? We pick who should and who will win CMA Awards this year

The 57th Country Music Association Awards air live Wednesday from Lower Broadway's Bridgestone Arena. The event features Lainey Wilson and Jelly Roll as the evening's most-nominated artists, with nine and five nods, respectively.

Handicapping precisely who is taking home which trophy is difficult.

This is an unprecedented era in country music, in which stars are as much titans of the format as they have firmly crossed over into mainstream popular culture and music.

Nominated artists like Luke Combs and Morgan Wallen are Billboard Hot 100 chart mainstream mainstays, while artists like the previously mentioned Jelly Roll and Wilson, plus Kane Brown, Jordan Davis and Bailey Zimmerman, all have achieved three or more No. 1 singles (in multiple genres) in the past 18 months.

Overall, the 12-month CMA Award cycle from July 2022 to June 2023 featured over two dozen No. 1 singles on country's radio and sales charts.

In short, it's a wide-open field.

But we're here to help with some insight and predictions about who we think should win and who we think will win.

ENTERTAINER OF THE YEAR

Who should win: Morgan Wallen

Need for vocal rest and notoriety notwithstanding, the past 12 months saw the "Last Night" crooner's string of sold-out live events extended overseas to Australia and across the United States and Canada. He's also a merchandise mega-seller whose musical output of 69 songs in 27 months fundamentally reshaped the music industry into the shape of a mullet haircut (which Wallen then shaved off). It's not the popular choice, but it could, rather overwhelmingly, finally be the right one. — MD

Who will win: Luke Combs

The past 12 months saw Combs deftly maneuver himself from being "the guy with 17 No. 1 singles who plays sold-out stadiums" to being "the guy who has common-sense musical taste enough to artfully cover Tracy Chapman's 'Fast Car' and touch absolutely nothing in it." That's the type of respectful maturity that has been part and parcel of the modern-era country superstar expectation since Garth Brooks. Sometimes, when a song is more significant than an artist -- but then that artist performs it astonishingly well -- they, too, graduate past traditional expectations. — MD

SINGLE OF THE YEAR

What should win: Luke Combs, "Fast Car"

In a June 2023 Billboard interview, Combs' manager Chris Kappy diffused concerns about racial and social appropriation and the award-winning artist's Billboard Hot 100-topping cover by making a statement directly in line with thoughts that every aspiring Music Row star has about having played "Fast Car" while cutting their teeth on the road to stardom:

"Tracy is one of his favorite artists. So his goal was to never change the song. His goal was to honor the perfection that it is..."

How popular is "Fast Car?" On Sept. 9, 2023, at No. 2 with Combs' own "Love You Anyway" at the top, saw the top two positions being simultaneously occupied by the same solo, unaccompanied act. — MD

What will win: HARDY and Lainey Wilson, "wait in the truck"

Between HARDY and Wilson, there's currently somewhere in the range of nearly two dozen hit singles as singers or songwriters. Currently, Nashville's machine is also churning hard around performers with 10-15 years of experience and a solid adjacency to pop-ready rock. Blend those notions with a domestic abuse murder ballad that Wilson told The Tennessean hearkens back to Garth Brooks' 1990 classic "The Thunder Rolls" and The Chicks' 1999-released "Goodbye Earl" -- this equals a win as a superstardom-cementing turn. — MD

SONG OF THE YEAR

What should win: Megan Moroney's "Tennessee Orange," written by David Fanning, Paul Jenkins, Megan Moroney, Ben Williams

Demographics-wise, research shows that the median country music streamer is a millennial woman who listens daily. Thus, stereotypes would make a bittersweet song about a Georgia girl being into a guy just enough to commit to wearing his sweatshirt -- even though it represents a sworn rival Southeast Conference university -- potentially wildly popular. Indeed, from TikTok to streaming to country radio and more, the song has had an impressive shelf life that, just by watching videos of Moroney's shows, has held stereotypes to be beneficial in maintaining its success. — MD

What will win: Luke Combs' cover of Tracy Chapman's "Fast Car," written by Tracy Chapman

A folk-pop song tells the perspectives of characters in a homeless shelter lamenting their shared inability to escape the impossibly crippling state of their dead-end existence. For Chapman, "Fast Car" arrived amid the urban bleakness of the Reagan era. For Combs, it's a perfect ode to the hopelessness faced by many of his fans seeking a way out of the rural and suburban bleakness of America's modern era. Great songs are timeless, with a globe of potential applications. — MD

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

What should win: "Ashley McBryde Presents: Lindeville" by Ashley McBryde

"Lindeville" is our pick because of the approach the writers took to writing this amazing record. It didn't involve statistics or percentages or any other analytics the music industry streaming charts could cook up to drive a convoluted creative process. It evolved organically out of songwriters sitting at a table and writing songs. McBryde told NPR their only agenda when writing was "... to write stuff that felt good," and boy does this batch of songs feel good. — MH

What will win: "Gettin Old" by Luke Combs

With 18 tracks ranging from originals he co-wrote to one well-chosen cover song, the album is a well-rounded package of music sung by an artist who could sing the phone book and turn it into a hit. But instead of resting on his popularity, Combs continues to churn out albums chock full of musical content and "Gettin' Old" is no exception. — MH

FEMALE VOCALIST OF THE YEAR

Who should win: Kelsea Ballerini

Because this award is for vocals, our vote is for Ballerini this year because of what she's using her voice to say with her latest record, "Rolling Up the Welcome Mat." It's one thing to go through a public divorce, but it's another to use your voice to let your fans into your struggle. Ballerini is working through it, moving on and empowering other women to be strong in their own circumstances with her voice. — MH

Who will win: Lainey Wilson

Wilson is having a career pinnacle moment right now that has everyone applauding. She might seem like a "new" artist to the average country music listener, but Nashville knows she has been at this for a long time. She has worked super hard, she is incredibly talented and she has a beautiful voice that could land her the vocalist trophy. — MH

MALE VOCALIST OF THE YEAR

Who should win: Luke Combs

Luke Combs is so popular right now he could win awards for things he doesn't even do. Not to say he isn't deserving of the vocalist award, but he probably is better represented in the Entertainer category so that he can be recognized for the whole shebang: the album, the touring, the live show and the vocal performance. — MH

Who will win: Chris Stapleton

There just isn't another singer out there who can out-sing Chris Stapleton. His voice is raw, it's tender, it's powerful and it's melodic. Not one or the other, but all of the above. The reigning ACM Awards Entertainer of the Year and six-time CMA Male Vocalist of the Year deserves to win this category again. In fact, they should re-name the award, the "Chris Stapleton Male Vocalist of the Year" award. — MH

VOCAL DUO OF THE YEAR

Who should win: The War and Treaty

Have you heard these two sing? Have you seen them play off each other with brilliant ease? Their harmonies are perfection, but with this husband-and-wife duo, their presence is about so much more than their voices, which provide a solid foundation to build on. They balance a playful demeanor with a seriousness and depth that can only come from their relationship as a married couple, which adds a layer to their performance that no other duo in this category can claim. — MH

Who will win: Dan + Shay

Dan + Shay have stayed true to what they are good at despite, or in spite of their crossover success. They've garnered eight No. 1 Billboard singles on country radio, quintuple-platinum album sales, and the equivalent of over 30 million singles sold. Their tenor voices are incredible and they've mastered the art of the country ballad. With career highs and lows in their rearview mirror, the duo has come out with their most recent record "Bigger Houses" that they feel is their best yet. — MH

NEW ARTIST OF THE YEAR

Who should win: Parker McCollum

McCollum seemed to slide into the mix of young country singers without a ton of fanfare and he's had, well, a hell of a year thanks to his 4.6 million monthly listeners on Spotify alone. He released his first EP in 2013, so like many "new" artist candidates, many might not consider him new. But he is new to a lot of the country music listeners who discovered the "Gold Chain Cowboy" thanks to his 2021 album of the same name with songs like "To Be Loved by You" and "Pretty Heart." Keeping the momentum going, McCollum followed that record with his latest release "Never Enough" and continues to gain steady momentum. — MH

Who will win: Zach Bryan

Because he's EVERYWHERE. He's at the top of everyone's Spotify playlist. He is all I get to listen to in the car with my 15-year-old daughter. He's playing sold-out shows across the country at the speed of sound and he's doing it all with very little help from country radio. His hit "Something in the Orange" has been streamed seemingly a billion times (exaggeration added, although only slight) but didn't see staggering success on the Country Airplay charts. He did, however, top "Billboard's" Hot Rock and Alternative list with the same song. A feat only a New Artist of the Year could achieve. — MH

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: CMA Awards 2023: Song, artist, single, album of the year predictions