November 2024 box office preview: ‘Wicked’ takes on ‘Gladiator II,’ ‘Moana 2’ and more
November is considered by many to be the beginning of the holiday movie season, but it’s also when many of the prestige films that will vie for next year’s Oscars get released. In fact, a number of popular festival favorites will be hitting theaters this month and/or expanding from their limited releases, which means that Oscar season is now in full swing. Read on for Gold Derby’s November box office preview.
“Wicked” (Universal – Nov. 22)
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This adaptation of the mega-hit Broadway musical based on Frank L. Baum‘s characters made famous in the 1939 film classic “The Wizard of Oz” might be one of the biggest blockbusters of the year. Directed by Jon M. Chu (“Crazy Rich Asians”), it stars Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba, pop superstar Ariana Grande as Glinda, Jeff Goldblum as the Wizard, as well as recent Oscar winner Michelle Yeoh, and Bowen Yang from “Saturday Night Live.” The weekend before Thanksgiving has delivered so many major blockbusters, including installments of the “Harry Potter,” “Twilight,” and “The Hunger Games” franchises, and Grande is more popular than ever, with a new album that has been #1 in many countries and a second “Saturday Night Live” hosting gig. “Wicked” could open close to $100 million.
“Moana 2” (Disney – Nov. 27)
This month, Dwayne Johnson returns to theaters in a big way with the action-comedy “Red One” (see below) and then reprising his voice role as Maui in this sequel to Disney’s 2016 hit “Moana.” That movie grossed just under $250 million domestic and $686 million worldwide with Auli’i Cravalho returning as the voice of the title character, following her appearance in the “Mean Girls” musical earlier this year, joined by other returning characters voiced by Nicole Scherzinger, Alan Tudyk, Rachel House, and Temuera Morrison. It’s opening in the second weekend of a massive blockbuster double feature, but Disney has a long history of winning the Thanksgiving box office, so this could end up making $85 million or more over the five-day holiday.
“Gladiator II” (Paramount – Nov. 22)
Opening against “Wicked” is Ridley Scott‘s sequel to his 2000 Oscar Best Picture winner, with Oscar winner Russell Crowe‘s character being replaced by Oscar nominee Paul Mescal as his son Lucius and Pedro Pascal as the new general of the Roman army. Scott’s big get for this one is his reunion with double Oscar-winner Denzel Washington for the first time since “American Gangster” in 2007, who is already projected by Gold Derby Expects to get another nomination. This actually could end being the perfect counter-programming to “Wicked” in a similar way to 2023’s “Barbenheimer” phenomenon. We can probably expect an opening in the $50 to $60 million range.
“Red One” (Amazon MGM – Nov. 15)
Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans team for this action-comedy from “Jumanji” director, Jake Kasdan, that has them playing North Pole’s head of security and a bounty hunter who team up to retrieve a kidnapped Santa Claus, played by Oscar winner J.K. Simmons. Also starring Lucy Liu and Nick Kroll, the advance reactions to the trailer have not been great, but it’s a PG-13 holiday-themed action movie that could bring in family audiences as everyone gets in the right headspace for the winter holidays. This could open with upwards of $30 million in the weekend before the “Wicked”/”Gladiator II” juggernaut steamrolls over it.
“Here” (Sony – Nov. 1)
November also delivers a literal “Forrest Gump” reunion as Robert Zemeckis reunites with Tom Hanks and Robin Wright (and Oscar-winning screenwriter Eric Roth) for this centuries-spanning drama that tells the story of a home and the family that lives there. The cast includes Kelly Reilly (from Zemeckis’ “Flight”), Michelle Dockery from “Downton Abbey,” Paul Bettany, and Nikki Amuka-Bird (“Old,” “Knock at the Cabin”). We’ll have more to say about this one in Wednesday’s weekend preview.
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“The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” (Lionsgate – Nov. 8)
With Christmas on many minds over the holiday movie season, this adaptation of Barbara Robinson‘s 2005 children’s book of the same name is directed by Dallas Jenkins, creator of the hugely popular “The Chosen” television series. His cast includes Lauren Graham and Judy Greer, as well as comedian Pete Holmes. Lionsgate has had a terrible few months with bomb after bomb in theaters, so they desperately need the young fans of the book and potential family audiences, and the impending holiday might help this open in the $10 million range.
“Heretic” (A24 – Nov. 8)
Hugh Grant stars in this psychological thriller written and directed by “A Quiet Place” creators Scott Beck and Bryan Woods, starring Chloe East and Sophie Thatcher as two Mormon missionaries who arrive at the house of a man who puts their religion to the test. Oddly, this is opening in the same busy weekend as “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever,” and it might be going directly against it with an opening in the $10 million range.
“Weekend in Taipei” (Ketchup – Nov. 8)
Also opening that same weekend is this action-thriller starring Luke Evans and Sung Kang from the “Fast and Furious” movies, Evans playing a former DEA agent who looks to revisit a romance during a weekend in Taipei, only to open a serious can of worms. Opening ahead of “Red One” and “Gladiator II,” this may be seen as a smaller action movie, even with the involvement of legendary action writer/producer Luc Besson. It’s also the first feature from director George Huang (“Swimming with Sharks”) in a long time, but it’s doubtful Ketchup can get this to bring in more than $4 or $5 million with so much competition.
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Studios – Limited: Nov. 1, Nationwide: Nov. 15)
Jesse Eisenberg wrote, directed and stars in this comedy along with Kieran Culkin, as cousins David and Benji, whose somber trip to honor their beloved dead grandmother is disrupted by Benji’s aggravating behavior. One of the most popular movies from this year’s Sundance in January, Searchlight will give this a slower rollout as it maneuvers Culkin and Eisenberg’s screenplay into this year’s awards races.
“Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin.” (Angel Studios – Nov. 22)
German actor Jonas Dassler (“The Golden Glove”) stars in Angel Studios’ latest biopic following “Cabrini” earlier this year. Directed by Todd Komarnicki (2003’s “Resistance”), the decision to open this against “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” could prove to be a major faux pas for the faith-based distributor, although strong reviews and its unique pay-it-forward ticketing system could help it opens with $5 million or more.
“Overlord: The Sacred Kingdom” (Sony/Crunchyroll – Nov. 8)
Anime has been struggling in theaters, but that won’t stop Crunchyroll, who has the rights to distribute this feature based on the popular series of Japanese novels by Kugane Maruyama, that were turned into equally popular Manga comics and eventually, a four-season television series. The question, as always, is whether the popular Japanese property has anywhere near as awareness in North America, and that will make the difference between an opening in the $5 million range or much lower.
“Absolution” (Samuel Goldwyn – Nov. 1)
Liam Neeson plays an aging gangster trying to reconnect with his children, who is pulled back into the criminal world against his will in his latest collaboration with Norwegian filmmaker ??Hans Petter Moland (“Cold Pursuit”). More on this in this week’s weekend preview.
“Hitpig” (Viva Entertainment – Nov. 1)
A smaller family-friendly animated film with a funny concept features the voice cast of Jason Sudeikis as the porcine bounty hunter of the title, along with voice work from Andy Serkis, Lily Singh, Rainn Wilson, RuPaul, and comedian Hannah Gatsby. More on this in the next weekend preview.
SEE2024 box office hits: Every movie that made more than $100 million, including ‘The Wild Robot’
As usual, there are many, many limited releases this month. Some could expand wider, but some might not even report box office, as they’re being released by streamers. The list includes many films that have premiered at various festivals going back to Cannes in May, including Sean Baker‘s critically-acclaimed Anora – the current Best Picture frontrunner, according to Gold Derby Experts – which will continue to expand until its nationwide release sometime this month.
“Blitz” (Apple Studios – Nov. 1)
Steve McQueen‘s first narrative feature film since 2018’s “Widows” stars Saorsie Ronan as the mother of a young lad (Elliott Heffernan), who get separated after a German air raid on London in 1940. It’s only getting a limited release before streaming on Apple TV+, so it may not even report box office a la “Wolves” last month.
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix – Nov. 1)
Receiving a limited release ahead of streaming later in the month is this award-winning film from French filmmaker Jacques Audiard, starring relative newcomer, Mexican trans actress Karla Sofía Gascón, as well as Zoe Saldana and Selena Gomez, in this story of a cartel boss who gets a sex change in order to go into hiding from their enemies. It’s France’s selection for the Oscars and could be seen as a frontrunner for International Feature, but it’s just as likely to earn Oscar nominations in other categories as well
“Juror #2” (Warner Bros. – Nov. 1)
It’s not often when a Clint Eastwood movie only gets a limited release with no plans for expansion, but that’s the case with this drama starring Nicholas Hoult as Justin Kemp, the juror on a high-profile murder trial who finds himself puzzled over whether he might convict the wrong person.
“Music by John Williams” (Disney – Nov. 1)
Opening in New York and L.A. (as well as streaming on Disney+) is this fantastic doc directed by Laurent Bouzereau, which puts the spotlight on one of the Oscar’s most celebrated individuals, famous for composing the scores for Steven Spielberg‘s “Jaws” and “Raiders of the Lost Ark,” George Lucas‘ “Star Wars” and other classic film themes.
“Bird” (MUBI – Nov. 8)
Filmmaker Andrea Arnold returns with this coming-of-drama starring newcomer Nykiya Adams as 12-year-old Bailey, a rebellious Irish girl living in northern Kent with her father “Bug” (a heavily-tattooed Barry Keoghan) who encounters a quirky individual who goes by “Bird” (Franz Rogowski from “Passages”).
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix – Nov 8)
August Wilson‘s play is adapted as the directorial debut by Malcolm Washington, son of Denzel and brother to actor John David Washington. The latter reprises his role as Boy Willie from Broadway, along with Samuel L. Jackson who played Doaker in that recent stage production. Danielle Deadwyler has been predicted by Gold Derby Experts to get her first Oscar nomination for her supporting role.
“Elevation” (Vertical – Nov. 8)
Anthony Mackie reunites with his “The Adjustment Bureau” director, George Nolfi, teaming with Morena Baccarin from the “Deadpool” movies as a single father trying to save the life of a young boy while facing “monstrous creatures.”
“Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate – Nov. 8)
Recent Oscar winner Cillian Murphy and Emily Watson star in director Tim (“Peaky Blinders”) Mielant‘s adaptation of Claire Keegan‘s drama, with Murphy playing Bill Furlong, a coal and oil salesman who discovers some disturbing truths about the local convent.
“Meanwhile on Earth” (Metrograph Pictures – Nov. 8)
French filmmaker Jérémie Clapin of the Oscar-nominated animated feature “I Lost My Body” changes gears for this sci-fi drama starring Megan Northam as 23-year-old Elsa, who hopes to find her brother after he vanished during a space mission with the help of an alien lifeform.
“All We Imagine as Light” (Sideshow Films – Nov. 15)
Payal Kapadia‘s family drama was the first Indian film to compete in the main competition at Cannes in 30 years, where it won the Grand Prix. Oddly, it is *not* India’s submission for the Oscars International Feature category.
“Flow” (Janus Films – Nov. 22)
Another well-regarded film that premiered at Cannes isLatvia’s Oscar selection, this gorgeously animated film from Gints Zilbalodis about a cat and other animals trying to survive a flood by working together.
“Queer” (A24 – Nov. 27)
Daniel Craig stars in Luca Guadagnino‘s adaptation of William S. Burroughs‘ short novel, playing Lee, an American expat living in Mexico City and pursuing a young man named Allerton, played by Drew Starkey. This recent festival premiere also stars Lesley Manville, Jason Schwartzman, and Henry Zaga.
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon – Nov. 27)
Yet another festival favorite, Iranian filmmaker Mohammad Rasoulof‘s controversial politically tinged film sent the filmmaker into exile in Germany, so that country selected it for the International Feature Oscar category after it won two prestigious prizes out of its Cannes debut.
“Maria” (Netflix – Nov. 27)
Oscar winner Angelina Jolie plays legendary opera singer Maria Callas in the latest biopic from Chilean filmmaker Pablo Larrain, who has directed both Natalie Portman and Kristen Stewart to Oscar nominations, and should do the same here.
That’s it for November, which means there’s only one more month left in 2024. Where did this year go?
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