October 2024 box office preview: ‘Joker 2’ and ‘Venom 3’ and scary sequels, oh my!
Since November is considered the start of the holiday movie season, October continues what was once a generally slow fall month for movies, but in recent years, one that has become as much about releasing prestige Oscar fodder as it is about big budget genre fare. The big question this month might be which of the two super-villain sequels will do better, plus there’s also a bunch of scary stuff, including two anticipated sequels to horror hits. On top of that, there are a bunch of festival favorites and potential Oscar contenders as well. Read on for Gold Derby’s October 2024 box office preview.
“Joker: Folie á Deux” (Warner Bros. – Oct. 4)
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Joaquin Phoenix won his first acting Oscar for playing Arthur Fleck, the title character of Todd Phillips‘ 2019 film “Joker,” and that movie – which took a unique look at Batman’s greatest villain – ended up grossing over $1 billion worldwide after opening with $96.2 million domestically. Now, Phoenix’s Joker is back, joined by Lady Gaga as a new incarnation of Harley Quinn, and apparently, this sequel is a musical. We’ll have to see if “Joker: Folie á Deux” is able to achieve the same $335 million grossed by the original in North America with Lady Gaga’s massive fanbase balancing out any dudes who might be put off by the musical aspect. We’ll have more about “Joker 2” in next week’s weekend preview, but it’s aiming to be the next $100 million opener of the year.
“Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony – Oct. 25)
Three years after the “Venom” sequel matched the $213 million made by the initial movie in North America, Tom Hardy is back as Eddie Brock aka the Spider-Man “villain” Venom, who became hugely popular since being introduced in the ‘90s. “Venom: the Last Dance” promises to be the finale of a trilogy with Hardy joined by Juno Temple from “Ted Lasso,” Stephen Graham, Chiwetel Ejiofor and Rhys Ifans, the latter two having already appeared in the MCU in different roles. “Venom 3” may benefit from being a comic book movie in a year noticeably devoid of the usual suspects, so it should be good to open in the same $80 to $90 million range as its predecessors.
“Smile 2” (Paramount – Oct. 18)
2022’s horror film “Smile” was a massive hit, opening with $22.6 million and grossing $105.9 million domestically and roughly the same overseas. Filmmaker Parker Finn returns, as does actor Kyle Gallner – fresh off “Strange Darling – but this one stars Naomi Scott (“Aladdin”) as a pop star being plagued by the entity that causes people to smile and then kill, usually themselves. The cast for the sequel includes Rosemarie DeWitt, Lukas Gage and even Drew Barrymore… as herself! The first movie opened in late September, but this one is opening further into “spooky season,” and that should definitely pay off with an opening in the $30 million range.
“Terrifier 3” (Cineverse – Oct. 11)
Art the Clown (David Howard Thornton) is back after the 2018 indie horror hit “Terrifier,” and its 2022 sequel, which grossed $11 million domestically after getting an extended release following its Fathom Events debut. Directed by Damien Leone, the ultra-gory slasher flick benefitted from the proximity of its release to Halloween, and this threequel offers a Christmas-themed installment, maybe a bit too early for THAT holiday. Despite being released in one of the busier weekends of the month, it should be good for an opening in the $7 to $8 million range, though with less chance of legs with “Smile 2” opening a week later.
SEE 2024 box office hits: Every movie that made more than $100 million
“Saturday Night” (Sony – Oct. 11)
Jason Reitman helms this comedy about the 90 minutes leading up to the first episode of “Saturday Night Live” back in October 1975. It has an ensemble cast made up mostly of newcomers, but it stars Gabriel LaBelle from Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” as Lorne Michaels, Dylan O’Brien playing Dan Aykroyd, and the other more notable stars being Rachel Sennott, Finn Wolfhard, multiple Oscar nominee Willem Dafoe and recent Emmy winner Lamorne Morris. This movie has been slowly rolling out from a platform release in late September, so we’ll have to see whether there’s enough business left for it to make more than $10 million in its wide release, as the 50th season of the NBC staple continues to roll out concurrently.
“Piece by Piece” (Focus Features – Oct. 11)
Oscar-winning documentarian Morgan Neville teams with Oscar and Grammy winner Pharrell Williams (“Happy”) for a very different documentary about the latter’s life and career, told completely using LEGO bricks! With appearances by Snoop Dogg, Justin Timberlake and yes, even the Minions, Neville’s film should be a rare doc that might bring in a family audience, which could make it one of the stronger doc releases in years, hopefully making $5 to $10 million its opening weekend, thanks to Pharrell’s popularity.
“My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next” (Toho International – Oct. 11)
Theatrical anime has been floundering in recent months, but the latest installment of the popular “My Hero Academy” series hopes to change that, despite opening in the busiest weekend of this month. The previous installment, “World Heroes Mission,” released by Crunchyroll in August 2021, opened with $6.2 million, but ended with just $9.8 million domestically – the very definition of frontloading – so we’ll see if this installment will bring anime fans back to theaters.
“The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment – Oct. 11)
Maybe you’ve heard about Ali Abbasi‘s controversial biopic about the younger Donald J. Trump, as portrayed by Sebastian Stan aka “The Winter Soldier,” but it will be interesting to see whether it crosses party lines to get a mixed political audience. It shows his earlier years first meeting Roy Cohn, played by Emmy winner Jeremy Strong from “Succession,” who becomes a mentor to the young Trump, who also falls in love with the model Ivana, played by Oscar nominee Maria Bakalova from “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.” This is another movie that might have done better if not released in such an insanely busy weekend, but we’ll have to wait and see if it finds an audience.
“Conclave” (Focus Features – Oct. 25)
Ralph Fiennes stars in the new film from Edward Berger, director of the Oscar-winning “All Quiet on the Western Front.” Adapted from Robert Harris‘s best-selling novel, Fiennes plays Cardinal Lawrence, who has to oversee a contentious conclave after the Pope dies under mysterious circumstances, and every other Cardinal besides him wants the job. With an all-star cast that includes Stanley Tucci, Isabella Rosellini and John Lithgow, this is likely to be a major Oscar player, though it’s still odd that Focus is giving this a wide release rather than platforming into the holiday season. It probably will only make $5 or $6 million its opening, though any awards attention will help it maintain legs.
“White Bird: A Wonder Story” (Lionsgate – Oct. 4)
Helen Mirren is the main draw for this long-delayed follow-up/spin-off to the Lionsgate hit, “Wonder.” Directed by Marc Forster (“Finding Neverland”), this one follows Bryce Gheisar‘s Julian, who has been expelled for his bullying of Auggie Pullman in the first movie. He’s soon visited by his grandmother (Mirren) who shares stories of her attempts to escape France during World War II. Based on R. J. Palacio‘s popular graphic novel, this movie has been systematically delayed for years, and it’s hard to believe it can make more than $4 to $6 million this weekend.
“Exhibiting Forgiveness” (Roadside Attractions – Oct. 18)
Artist Titus Kaphar‘s directorial debut premiered at the Sundance Film Festival all the way back in January, starring André Holland from “Moonlight” as a rising Black artist, who is visited by his estranged recovering addict father (John Earl Jelks) looking for redemption. It’s hard to tell how wide this might get released, but hopefully, word will get out on the film’s quality, even months after its premiere, having received mostly positive reviews.
“Goodrich” (Ketchup Entertainment – Oct. 18)
Michael Keaton and Mila Kunis star in this drama with Keaton playing art gallery owner Andy Goodrich, whose troubled wife enters rehab, leaving him to care for their kids, while his older daughter Grace (Kunis) is pregnant and desperately needs her father’s support. It’s a little weird this is getting a wide release in this already-busy month, but it might not be a coincidence that Keaton will be hosting “Saturday Night Live” this same weekend.
“We Live in Time” (A24 – Oct. 11 limited; nationwide on Oct. 18)
“Brooklyn” director John Crowley returns with this festival favorite romantic drama starring Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh as a chef and a divorcée, whose lives are changed with a chance encounter that leads to a long romance. As you can see, October 18 is getting as busy as the week before it, so it’s going to be interesting to see if this can make any sort of mark.
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You can also read about some of the other planned limited releases below:
“Things Will Be Different” (Magnet Releasing – Oct. 4)
Michael Felker‘s sci-fi thriller stars Adam David Thompson and Riley Dandy as estranged siblings who commit a robbery then hide from police in a farmhouse that’s able to hide them in a different time.
“Blink” (National Geographic – Oct 4)
“Navalny’s” Oscar-winning filmmaker Daniel Roher teams with Edmund Stenson for this documentary that follows the Pelletier family, three of whose four children are diagnosed with a rare disease that causes eyesight issues, as they go on a trip to see the world while the kids still can.
“The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics – Oct 4)
Saoirse Ronan plays an alcoholic oceanographer who travels to a remote area of Scotland to sober up. Directed by Nora Fingscheidt, it’s based on the memoir by Amy Liptrot (who cowrote the screenplay), and it’s getting a limited release months after its Sundance debut.
“Rumours” (Bleecker Street – Oct. 11)
Winnipeg’s eccentric auteur filmmaker Guy Maddin gets the most high-profile release of his entire career with this whimsical comedy co-directed by Evan and Galen Johnson, starring Cate Blanchett, Charles Dance (“Game of Thrones”), Nikki Amuka-Bird, Denis Ménochet, and Alicia Vikander. It takes place during a G7 summit where seven of the world’s most powerful leaders get stranded in the woods, as they try to draft a statement about a global crisis.
“Anora” (Neon – Oct. 18)
This year’s highly-acclaimed film from Sean Baker (“The Florida Project,” “Red Rocket”), which won the Palm D’or at the Cannes Film Festival, will be released in New York and L.A. this month before expanding over the course of November. It stars Mikey Madison as the title character, a young Brooklyn sex worker who marries the son of a Russian oligarch, whose parents are unhappy with this marriage. “Anora” is currently a presumptive frontrunner for Best Picture and other Oscar categories, going by Gold Derby experts, so we’ll have to see how awards and accolades affects its box office performance.
“Dahomey” (Mubi – Oct 25)
“Atlantics” director Mati Diop returns with this documentary about royal treasures from the Kingdom of Dahomey that were plundered after being exhibited in Paris.
“Magpie” (Shout Studios – Oct. 25)
Daisy Ridley stars and came up with the concept for this thriller directed by Sam Yates, which has her starring opposite Shazad Latif as married couple Anette and Ben, whose daughter is cast opposite a movie star (Matilda Lutz), who Ben becomes infatuated with.
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films – Oct. 25)
Emmy-winning “Succession” star Sara Snook, Eric Bana, Jacki Weaver and Kodi Smit-McPhee provide the voices for the new stop-motion animation film from Oscar-winner Adam Elliot (“Harvie Krumpet”) about a lonely misfit, an avid reader who collects shells.
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios – Oct. 25)
RaMell Ross, the filmmaker behind acclaimed Oscar-nominated doc “Hale County This Morning, This Evening” returns with this narrative featured adapted from Colson Whitehead‘s Pulitzer Prize winning novel about two young African-American men dealing with the travails of reform school. The film will be opening the 62nd New York Film Festival, which begins on Sept 27.
That’s it for October, and the potential for more Oscar films will increase as the official holiday movie season begins in November.
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