Oscar Experts Typing: ‘Anora’ is rich with supporting actors — and there is room for them to break through
Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss Best Supporting Actor, which ostensibly has one open slot.
Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! The Mets are on the brink, the Yankees are hateful, and we’re here to type about Best Supporting Actor. This race has felt top heavy since the summer, when many had Samuel L. Jackson walking away with his first competitive Oscar for “The Piano Lesson.” That feels… unlikely now and it’s very easy to imagine Jackson missing out altogether. So what we’re left with is a group of newcomers to the Oscars stage, one massive movie star, and a couple of “Succession” Emmy winners. Let’s start there, with your favorite Roy son, Kieran Culkin. The actor’s work in “A Real Pain” has been bandied about as an Oscar contender since the film premiered at the Sundance Film Festival and he stands as the current frontrunner in the race. It makes sense: The industry loved “Succession” and it feels like the television show from this current era that would actually have cachet among cinephiles. He’s also doing the thing he’s best at: playing tortured millennial angst, where heartache is masked by sarcasm and self-deprecation. It’s a great and likable turn and with Searchlight Pictures behind him, it’s very easy to imagine him sweeping the season once the televised ceremonies begin. (Does anyone give better acceptance speech than Culkin?) But if Culkin does falter, there are three guys waiting to steal his crown. Second in the odds right now is “Sing Sing” breakthrough Clarence Maclin. His narrative is irresistible, his performance is good, and he’s got the stronger movie right now: “Sing Sing” should be safe in the Best Picture race while “A Real Pain” still feels like it’s on the cusp. Next is Guy Pearce, a beloved (at least among Film Twitter) actor who has been good for decades finally getting his flowers with “The Brutalist.” He’s got the Robert Downey Jr. role in the film opposite Adrien Brody’s Oppenheimer, and were he to win as part of a big sweep for “The Brutalist” — think: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor — I wouldn’t be shocked. Finally, there’s Denzel Washington, the two-time Oscar winner who is splashing the pot as hard as any movie star in “Gladiator II” — at least judging by the trailer. I could also imagine a path for Washington to steamroll, but he also might be this year’s Robert De Niro. Regardless of who wins, however, those four guys feel pretty safe. Then there’s the fifth spot, aka The Wild West. Stanley Tucci is fifth in the odds, but I jumped off that ship after seeing “Conclave” at Telluride — none of the supporting actors, other than Carlos Diehz because of his role, really stands out over the next. So I’ve got the Roy rematch with Jeremy Strong getting in for playing Roy Cohn in “The Apprentice.” It goes without saying that Strong is great in the film, and I believe there’s a world where the industry rallies around the movie — especially because it had such a hard time finding distribution. If not Strong or Tucci, there’s also Jackson, Edward Norton in “A Complete Unknown,” and Peter Sarsgaard in the pundits’ favorite movie, “September 5.” (Sleep on “September 5” at your own peril.) But I wonder if there’s room for a bigger upset here. “Anora” is out this week and as a strong contender for Best Picture and Best Actress, it feels like there’s coattail potential for one of its supporting fellas. The question is, which one? According to the odds, Mark Eydelshteyn is the most likely to get in (he’s ranked 11th) but Yura Borisov, the “heart and soul of the film,” is right behind him. Then there’s Karren Karagulian, who isn’t even an option right now in our predictions center, but is maybe my favorite performance in the film. The depth of the ensemble is why we’re both picking “Anora” as a Screen Actors Guild ensemble nominee, but do you think there’s a realistic chance one of these guys breaks through to steal what feels like an open slot?
joyceeng: You already know I have Borisov in. Am I confident? Hell no. But I needed someone in that spot and he’s as good as option as any. (He was also at 100/1, so I had to snatch him up.) Toros is my spirit animal, but even if Karagulian were in there now, I would still choose Borisov over him. Like I said the other day, Eydelshteyn is the “mainstream” pick, especially if you haven’t seen the film yet — or even if you have, you might still have him since he has the loud, unhinged role — but real ones know that “Anora’s” true scene-stealer is Borisov’s soulful Igor. It’s the difference between being a Yankees bandwagoner fan and a Mets fan. With the film opening this weekend and going wide in two weeks, I think the buzz and affection for his performance will only continue to flourish. Outside of the Oscars, I can see him scooping up nominations elsewhere between critics groups and expanded fields at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards and becoming the consensus choice among the “Anora” guys. He might come up short in the end, but he’d be inside the top 10 in my view, not outside of it as he currently is, if “Anora” remains strong. It’s funny to think about how “Conclave” was expected to grab double noms here with Tucci and John Lithgow months ago, and now it’s barely hanging onto one spot in the odds. It reminds me of when “Women Talking” was comfortably atop the supporting actress odds for months with Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy, but it floundered and failed to earn any acting bids, while “Everything Everywhere All at Once” produced the double noms. Best Supporting Actor has seen a lot of double noms in recent years — not last cycle though! — and “Conclave” on paper makes sense… until you see it. I don’t think “Anora” would get double noms, but it’s arguably more likely to do so than several films here with double nom potential. If the final spot remains “open” throughout the season, I can easily see voters defaulting to a veteran too, and there are lots of them in the running this year. There could also be a LaKeith Stanfield-esque type of shocker, although I don’t know which lead actor they would punt here. Gabriel LaBelle? Lol. Because of “Saturday Night’s” large ensemble? That film could yield the most supporting actor nominees, but it’s not making the biggest splash right now and everyone might have a different favorite performance.
More from GoldDerby
SEE Experts slugfest: Our first 2025 SAG Awards film predictions
Christopher Rosen: You had me at Gabriel LaBelle. But even as one of the card-carrying members of the “Saturday Night” fan club — we are strong, we are legion — I don’t think any single supporting actor will break out, not even the very deserving Cory Michael Smith. You are right that we have seen double supporting nominees often in recent years, and I’ve got that represented in my Best Supporting Actress picks with “Emilia Pérez” and Zoe Salda?a and Selena Gomez. But I do think it could happen in this race too, and while I wouldn’t put my money on “Anora” if that were the case, I think I’d be happy to lay some coin down on “Gladiator II.” Back when we did our early Oscar picks in March, I had Joseph Quinn as a nominee (he had great buzz, good enough to get into “Fantastic Four,” or so they said!). Then in July, I moved onto Pedro Pascal. I didn’t have Washington until August. But now that he feels entrenched in the race, would it shock me if either Quinn or more likely Pascal popped as well? It would not. Pascal is playing an antagonist in “Gladiator II,” but one look at his sad eyes in the trailer can tell you that he’s probably very conflicted in his role as a Roman general. I’d love to see Culkin and Pascal back together in an awards race, and I wouldn’t be shocked to have my favorite Reed Richards in this lineup by next week. I’ve always been high-high on “Gladiator II,” but would it surprise you if it pulled off the double play?
joyceeng: Are you going to have double “Gladiator II” supporting noms without Paul Mescal? “The Irishman” realness. It’ll be hilarious if “Gladiator II” ain’t it and we’ll be scrambling to fill two spots. I wanna note some other folks in the top 20. Harris Dickinson is in 13th for “Blitz,” which you and I and everyone who’s seen it knows is just a result of sparse updates. His role is, uh, lacking, and without having seen “Babygirl” yet, I can say he has a better shot with that film, for which he’s in 28th place. Adam Pearson is in 14th and would be a spectacular nominee, but “A Different Man” has unfortunately gotten lost among A24’s avalanche of films. Brian Tyree Henry pulled through with a nom for “Causeway” — one of my 2022 faves — and is in 15th for “The Fire Inside,” a very solid sports drama and Olympics film (you know I love those) that is slated to be one of several Christmas Day releases, but buzz and anticipation feel minimal right now. Your fave Josh O’Connor is in 17th for “Challengers,” followed by “Queer’s” Drew Starkey and two former champs, J.K. Simmons for “Juror #2” and Javier Bardem for “Dune: Part Two.” Setting aside your bias for Patrick Zweig (if that’s even possible for you), how would you rank them in likelihood of getting in?
Christopher Rosen: This is a trap, but I’ll fall into it. If I’m being totally honest, I’d rank those guys like this: Dickinson for “Babygirl,” Pearson, O’Connor, Simmons, Bardem, Henry, Starkey, and then Dickinson for “Blitz.” But I doubt any of them are getting in (cut to one of them getting in). Typing about this has gotten me excited by the race but I want to end by giving you the space to rhapsodize about Culkin. What would it be like for him to win an Oscar next year?
joyceeng: Well, it’d be great for his manager. Maybe his wife, the QUEEN that is Jazz Charton, will finally agree to baby No. 3? The press tour for “A Real Pain” is ramping up and he’s already expectedly serving, and you know he’ll be an absolute delight on the campaign trail (and yes, he is the king of speeches). Let’s not forget that he’s also hitting Broadway in the spring in a “Glengarry Glen Ross” revival, so a Tony could be in the offing too, a year after Strong won. And he could win that alongside Sarah Snook for “The Picture of Dorian Gray.” Roy sibs awards domination again? I f—ing win.
Best of GoldDerby
Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
Solve the daily Crossword
