Oscar Experts Typing: Assessing the A24-heavy Best Actor field
Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss Best Actor, a category A24 is looking to dominate.
Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’ve hit October with an awards race that has seemingly begun to solidify, even amid the chaotic vibes. In few categories does that feel more true than Best Actor, where almost everyone has had penciled in the same four guys for weeks: Oscar winner Adrien Brody for his towering and effortless performance in “The Brutalist,” one of this year’s top Best Picture contenders. He’s our favorite but not the official favorite in the odds. That honor goes to Ralph Fiennes, as likely an Oscar nominee as anyone from “Conclave.” Colman Domingo is in second place in the odds for “Sing Sing,” one of this year’s “small films with a giant heart.” Domingo was a Best Actor nominee last cycle for “Rustin” and seems all but assured of an immediate follow-up nomination. (A pause here to acknowledge some have jumped ship from “Sing Sing.” But, to me, it still seems set for four nominations. A24 hasn’t forgotten about this one — the studio is scheduling press and industry screenings for it this fall already — and it remains the anecdotal favorite movie of those who have seen it. Besides, even if it does shed a nomination or two, I don’t believe Domingo will be one to drop. Clarence Maclin, on the other hand… well, we can type about him in a couple of weeks.) So we’ve got those three actors in movies that have been screened at festivals and beyond for, in the case of “Sing Sing,” more than a year. The fourth spot for us and most others is being held for Timothee Chalamet as Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown.” Right now, that title is appropriate for a movie no one we’ve spoken to has actually seen. But Chalamet is one of the industry’s ascendent talents, he’s already an Oscar nominee (and maybe should’ve gotten another nomination last year for “Wonka”), and he’s playing a real-life figure in a mainstream biopic. If he doesn’t get into the Best Actor field this year, I have to imagine something went very wrong. Those are the consensus four — which actually goes to five. Holding onto the final slot is Daniel Craig for “Queer.” The second Luca Guadagnino film of 2024 had sky-high expectations before it premiered at Venice and many whispered about Craig, the erstwhile James Bond and current Benoit Blanc, maybe winning his first-ever Oscar for the performance. That conversation has since been memory-holed: “Queer” proved polarizing in its festival run and Craig might end up being a lone nominee. Plus, he’d likely be the third of three A24 guys in the field. All of which is to type: I believe the fifth Best Actor nominee will come from somewhere else (and maybe the fourth too if “A Complete Unknown” is not it). In the odds, John David Washington is next up for “The Piano Lesson,” and while I love him to death — we were on the same flights to Telluride this year! — I think he’s more likely to be a Screen Actors Guild Award nominee for that performance than an Oscar nominee. After Washington is Sebastian Stan for “The Apprentice.” Stan has two great performances this year with “The Apprentice” and “A Different Man.” He’s going to be everywhere on the trail — he already is — and it feels like the industry will want to embrace him. It’s just … for which role? I think he’s legitimately a revelation in “The Apprentice,” which is already one of the most underrated movies of the year in my eyes. It’s great, he’s fantastic, and the Best Actor lineup should have room for his Trump take. But you could probably express the same sentiments about “A Different Man.” Elsewhere, we have Paul Mescal for the unseen “Gladiator II,” and Joaquin Phoenix for “Joker: Folie a Deux.” Joyce, when does that movie come out? While you look for the release date, let me know how you feel about Best Actor and who could unseat Craig from that fifth slot assuming everything else goes to plan.
joyceeng: I love when there’s a highly competitive performance and film no one sees coming and it takes the person forever to rise in the odds because people don’t update. Brody has stalled out in third for now, but I think most people ~ in the know ~ would say he’s top two, if not the frontrunner. However, I also know some are hesitant about him winning a second Oscar for #reasons, but that is a conversation for another day. This has been the consensus five, but only Brody, Domingo and Fiennes feel safe. “A Complete Unknown” could easily pull a “Queer” when it’s finally seen — a movie with sky-high expectations and a Film Twitter Best Actor hopediction that underwhelms — and Chalamet could be on equal shaky ground with Craig. Stan is immense in “The Apprentice” and “A Different Man,” and I hope one of these critics groups gives him a prize for both films. As a card-carrying member of the Sebastian Stan Defense Team since “The Covenant,” I would love nothing more than to be able to call him an Oscar nominee and I would probably already have him in my top five if he just had one film this year. As it were, I don’t know which one to go with yet, especially with Nov. 5 looming. He’s already won hardware for “A Different Man” — out in the U.K. this weekend! –and has been on the press tour for that the past few weeks, which included A24’s own Actors on Actors between him and Domingo. That brings up my next point that I mentioned the other day. How many dudes is A24 gonna get into this category anyway? Stan, Domingo, Brody, and Craig are under the banner (of heaven, if you also include your one-time prediction Andrew Garfield for “We Live in Time”), and only two of them are “locks” at this stage. I’m shocked you haven’t mentioned Nicholas Hoult after this week’s trailer for “Juror #2,” my favorite ’90s John Grisham adaptation of 2024.
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Christopher Rosen: To be fair, I had Garfield before “Queer” was acquired and dated — and I still believe he’s going to be back at the Oscars as a nominee in this category sooner rather than later (Peter 3 for lyfe). You know I loved the “Juror #2” trailer, which looks like a movie movie. I’m always down for Clint Eastwood — but even I haven’t been able to abide by his recent output. This looks great, however, and Hoult seems sneaky ascendant: He’s also supposedly great in “The Order” and he’s got a juicy part in “Nosferatu” as well. I don’t think he’ll get in there, but I bet he gets the spring/summer ’25 Austin Butler in “Dune: Part Two” treatment for his Lex Luthor role in the new Superman movie. I agree that A24 getting three men in here feels like a steep bet to make, but I’m also not sure Briarcliff can push Stan over the hump — and, like you wrote, I wonder how the election will factor into all this. There’s a world where I could see either outcome positively or negatively effecting Stan. (If Trump wins, maybe he’s a protest vote; if Trump loses, maybe he’s the schadenfreude vote. But if Trump wins, maybe the idea of rewarding someone for playing Trump is toxic; if Trump loses, maybe a vote to recognize someone for playing Trump feels like old news.) Since the bottom of this category does seem wide open, I did want to bring up some folks sitting outside the top 10. First up is Jesse Eisenberg, who matches Kieran Culkin beat for beat in “A Real Pain” and, for my money, gave the best performance in the movie. If “A Real Pain” becomes a bottom-tier Best Picture nominee (very possible, as you called months ago), then shouldn’t we be taking Eisenberg more seriously? The other two guys are my personal faves, so big grain of salt — but both will be in play for Best Musical/Comedy Actor at the Golden Globes: my boy Glen Powell for “Hit Man” and my short king representative Gabriel LaBelle, who begs, borrows, and steals every scene in “Saturday Night” as Lorne Michaels. It’s maybe far-fetched, but the Academy does love a biopic!
joyceeng: I also noted the other day that Eisenberg is not being discussed enough in this category as the bench is proving to be not that deep and I suspect he’ll probably come back around in the next few weeks as promo for “A Real Pain” ramps up — maybe as soon as Saturday at its New York Film Festival premiere. The film could legitimately pull the same quartet of noms as “Sing Sing” and hails from Searchlight, which is good at this stuff. “Saturday Night” is a biopic — of “Saturday Night Live,” not Lorne Michaels. The movie is a lotta fun and LaBelle is aces, but its chaotic energy probably won’t be for everyone either. I am looking forward to its SAG ensemble nomination for its (*checks abacus*) 192 eligible actors. Since we’ve mentioned everyone else in the top 15, I’d be remiss not to highlight Ethan Herisse, currently in 11th place between Stan for “A Different Man” and Eisenberg. Because of “Nickel Boys'” first-person POV style, he’s not onscreen a lot, so that could hurt, but could he also get “degree of difficulty” points?
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Christopher Rosen: I mostly feel that Herisse is that high because people put him in before “Nickel Boys” premiered and then haven’t updated. He’s good in the film, but Brandon Wilson is arguably better and has just as much screen time. Plus, the POV-style isn’t very actor-friendly and might be a bridge too far for some. We’ve mentioned almost everyone, but let’s end by throwing out some more names, just because: In another year, I could see Jharrel Jerome being a contender (maybe he’ll get in at the Globes), and it would be nice to have Cillian Murphy get his afterglow nomination for “Small Things Like These.” But I won’t hold my breath for either. Anyone else you want to single out before we close tab on the week?
joyceeng: I supposed we should also shout out Cannes champ Jesse Plemons for “Kinds of Kindness,” but his best bet is probably a Globe nom at this point. Regardless of what happens with “Small Things Like These,” we should start the Cillian Murphy campaign now for the “Peaky Blinders” movie.
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