Oscar Experts Typing: Demi Moore is on the doorstep of the Best Actress lineup
Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we tackle Best Actress, where Demi Moore’s odds have been steadily rising.
Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! Nothing major happened this week but we’re still dutifully typing anyway. By the power of fate or maybe the calendar, the rotation has us back to Best Actress this week — perhaps apropos based on *waves hands* all this. When we last put fingers to keys about the Best Actress race, I was apparently on a bender: I didn’t have Angelina Jolie or Marianne Jean-Baptiste represented in my predictions, but I was all aboard for Amy Adams and Saoirse Ronan to make the final cut. I can only be me, but even reading that back makes my eyes roll. Needless to say, I have both Jolie (who was never really out and I was merely antidicting for “Maria”) and Jean-Baptiste (your fave for months) and even if I were to swap one of them out, I wouldn’t go with Adams or Ronan. The online world remains steadfast in its attempts to make Demi Moore a first-time Oscar nominee for “The Substance” and while I’d love to see it — she’s one of the true great movie stars of the ’90s — I’m not convinced she can push through in this category. (We talked about this on the podcast, but I’d feel more confident in predicting Margaret Qualley right now in Best Supporting Actress — and were Moore a contender in that category, not that she should be, I’d easily have her in there.) But the case for Moore is the kind I can get behind: a great narrative, a “comeback” role, and the “cool” movie. Right now, few contenders have broken through in the way “The Substance” has so far — it feels like a mini version of “Everything Everywhere All At Once” in that it doesn’t seem at all like something the Academy would go for, but the enthusiasm is almost too good to pass up. I’ve not mentioned my other predicted nominees only because they haven’t really changed: Mikey Madison and Karla Sofía Gascón are probably already moving onto the Phase 2 strategy meetings with their respective representatives. It would be almost unthinkable for either of them to miss out on Oscar nominations next year. When we did this in September, Nicole Kidman was still viewed as a long shot for “Babygirl.” But we knew better because of the Volpi Cup and she’s now fourth in the odds. Jean-Baptiste is fifth with “Hard Truths,” a performance that screams “No. 1 votes.” But I’ve at least thought of dropping her again — and if so, maybe I’d go with Moore over Ronan (“The Outrun,” now available on VOD!), That would be so me anyway. Joyce, where are you at on Best Actress now — and does it seem like your initial sense that this category wasn’t as deep as previous years has proven right? I’m thinking yes, because it feels like a steep drop after Moore in terms of nomination-competitive contenders.
joyceeng: Where I am is where I’ve been the past four weeks. I’ve made no changes, naturally. MJB could easily miss with a tiny film from a distributor with a shaky Oscar history — and it wasn’t great that she was snubbed by the European Film Awards this week — but I’ll keep her for now. I now have Moore in at the Globes and SAG, and if those transpire and if “The Substance” proves itself to be an industry hit, it’ll be hard not to predict her for the Oscars, but I’m going to hold on her for now. I think it’s easy to get lost in the film’s current online enthusiasm and gaslight yourself into believing she’s in when you’re rooting for her to get in. The category isn’t not deep. There are several worthy long-shot performances — Gotham nominee Pamela Anderson is great in “The Last Showgirl” and sits in 18th place — but, as we know, other factors can complicate someone’s path. I think it’s more like it’s a bloodbath for five spots among, like, 11 people. You didn’t even mention your favorite Sony Pictures Classics feature “The Room Next Door.” Have Tom Bernard‘s words faded from your memory? Tilda Swinton, who did get the EFA nom, is in 11th place, one spot behind Fernanda Torres, who would definitely be an obvious international pick if there weren’t some other options this year. Ronan is back on the trail this week ostensibly for “Blitz,” but we — and I think nearly everyone who’s seen both films — agree that her better performance is in “The Outrun.” It’s a small film (with a big heart), but it’s had a good two weeks picking up Gotham and British Independent Film Awards nominations. We talked about Qualley in supporting, but not in lead. She is a co-lead, so what if voters punt her there a la Keisha Castle-Hughes and Kate Winslet? “The Substance” probably can’t snag two lead spots, not the least because it’s been 33 years since the last film with double Best Actress citations, but what if she got in over Moore? I don’t believe it would happen for the same reasons that I don’t think voters would nominate Zoe Salda?a in lead over Gascón. And unlike the “Emilia Pérez” campaign, which has trotted out its actresses everywhere, the crux of “The Substance’s” campaign thus far has been focused on Moore, while Qualley has been mostly absent since the press tour.
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Christopher Rosen: That sounds like chaos magic to me, and while I’d love to see something crazy like that happen, I don’t think I’ll even entertain the thought right now. All props to Tom Bernard, but I never actually bought Swinton as a real threat here — Julianne Moore is actually too good in the movie to me to make it the Tilda Show, and “The Room Next Door” feels like the sum of its parts more than its individual actors. Ronan could make it through — we know Sony Classics can make that campaign work and she’s playing a likable but flawed character in an addiction drama. That makes me think she might have the advantage over Jean-Baptiste anyway. But we’ll see how the critics break in terms of their support over the next few weeks. You mentioned Anderson — she’s fine in that movie if not totally supported by the script — and I’ll mention two fourth-quarter actresses: Cynthia Erivo for “Wicked” and Lily-Rose Depp for “Nosferatu.” We’ve seen the former and both agree Erivo is solid but probably not making the grade this year (see her back here for “Part 2” in 2025). Depp feels like a wild card to me. She got great buzz out of the first screenings for “Nosferatu” (we see it on Sunday) and, well, what if she breaks into this race? Is “gothic horror” more acceptable to voters than body horror?
joyceeng: It’s so cute when you get carried away by the tweetviews. I’m sure Depp is great in “Nosferatu,” but I’ll reiterate what I said last week about the “Wicked” reactions. “Nosferatu” is highly anticipated by Film Twitter and Robert Eggers is one of its kings, so as long as the film is not a hot mess, the reactions, especially the first wave, would be effusive. We’ve seen that the Academy isn’t afraid of “weird” — and I would categorize “The Substance” more as “weird” than full-fledged “horror” — but it does have a horror bias. Film Twitter and critics’ faves Toni Collette and Lupita Nyong’o failed to make the cut for “Hereditary” and “Us,” respectively, and the latter even had a SAG nomination under her belt. Sight unseen, “Nosferatu” feels more like a below-the-line play than above. Erivo is interesting. There is certainly room for her, her movie will be bigger than all these movies combined, and Elphaba is an iconic, Tony-winning role who has the signature song of “Wicked.” And as we know with musical performances, sometimes having the song is enough, not just for the nomination but the win. I’m not saying she’ll definitely get in, let alone win, but someone was crying behind me during “Defying Gravity,” and I know that person is not the first and won’t be the last to do so.
SEE Oscar Experts Typing: The case to try ‘The Substance’ in Best Picture
Christopher Rosen: Erivo has one thing going for her that no one else except for maybe Madison can stake claim to this year: the undeniable final scene. (Moore is a factor in one but not really the focus of it.) We both liked “Wicked,” will both see “Wicked” again, and both agree that it’s going to be the biggest live-action movie of this holiday season. That Ariana Grande is a legitimate threat for a Best Supporting Actress nomination makes me think Erivo could do it too — think of it almost like a reverse coattail situation. If you love Glinda in “Wicked,” it maybe is hard to go against Elphaba. But what I think is more likely is a “Barbie” situation, with Grande (albeit with a much bigger role) filling the America Ferrera role and Erivo placing fourth or fifth on several ballots but losing out to bigger passion picks. We can save this for another column, but I look forward to seeing the general responses to both “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” — if only because I think it’ll give me more clarity on how seriously these movies will be as awards players. Joyce, we’ve hit all the big names but let’s end with June Squibb, the freshly minted 95-year-old. We don’t have her in at the Oscars, and we expect she’ll rate at the Golden Globes. But do you think she’s a serious threat to hit at the SAG Awards too?
joyceeng: I only ever had her at the Globes, but I fear she might miss there now with “Challengers” and “The Substance” entering the comedy/musical chat. But I look forward to her AARP Movies for Grownups Award win and I support anyone who doubles their 95th birthday party as a campaign event.
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