Oscar Experts Typing: The state of the weirdest Best Picture race in years
Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss Best Picture and the lack of an outright frontrunner.
Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! *Mr. Burns voice* Release the hounds! We’ve officially rang the bell on Oscar season — even though we’ve been ringing the bell since our ridiculously early Oscar picks in March — and this is already shaping up to be one of the most formless Phase 1s we’ve had in quite a while. In keeping with the theme of the 2024 presidential election, the buzzword I’ve heard from so many people about the race so far is “weird.” Last year at this time, many had already seen the 10 movies that would wind up getting nominated for Best Picture, with “Oppenheimer” and “Barbie” leading the charge as cultural blockbusters with mass appeal. This year, not so much. You and I may have seen most of the top 2025 Best Picture hopefuls. But I would say I’m only confident in about six of my 10 picks for Best Picture — and even within those six, there’s *Meryl Streep voice* such doubts. But for now, movies like “Emilia Pérez” (the frontrunner, perhaps by default, according to many I’ve spoken to, but the third place film in the odds), “Anora” (the actual odds-on frontrunner), and “Conclave” all seem assured of Best Picture recognition. Due to its mass appeal and financial success, “Dune: Part Two” feels pretty safe too. We’ve discussed how “Sing Sing,” the A24 darling that exploded at the Toronto International Film Festival last year, hasn’t broadly found an audience — but the audience that saw the film loves it. That passion alone should help it secure a space on the list of 10 as well (its future Screen Actors Guild Awards ensemble nomination will surely help). Finally, there’s “The Brutalist,” Brady Corbet’s stunning masterpiece about the American dream and its failed promise. That feels like the closest thing this year to the Martin Scorsese epics that the academy’s cineastes tend to honor. (Although having seen “The Brutalist” this week at the New York Film Festival, I feel like it’s way more accessible than “Killers of the Flower Moon” or even “The Irishman” despite its similar length.) After those six, however, it gets kind of wild. We both have the same remaining four films: “Gladiator II,” “Blitz,” “Nickel Boys,” and “September 5.” I could make a case for all of them, but if any or all of them end up snubbed, I wouldn’t be surprised either — not with movies like Golden Lion winner “The Room Next Door,” the festival season’s mainstream fave “Saturday Night,” Searchlight’s twosome of “A Real Pain” and “A Complete Unknown,” and Netflix’s ensemble drama “The Piano Lesson” all in play. Then there’s the Toronto audience award winner “The Life of Chuck,” which remains without distribution but could become a basic favorite if and when it’s scheduled on the 2024 calendar. Or maybe “Wicked” turns into both “Oppenheimer” and “Barbie” and shocks everyone in the 11th hour? Joyce, what do you make of this Best Picture race and how much do you love the uncertainty so far?
joyceeng: It’s the best, and not to mix awards shows, but I hope there’s no “Shōgun”-esque twist entering the chat and firming up the race and the win. “The Life of Chuck’s” win notwithstanding, I suppose you can say the biggest surprise from festivals is “The Brutalist’s” quick ascension since the film, while on the radar, was not highly predicted beforehand. And despite the raves and Silver Lion victory for Corbet, it’s still “only” in seventh place in the odds. I suspect people have reservations about its three-and-a-half-hour runtime and believe that might hold it back, but I agree that “The Brutalist” is far more accessible than Marty’s 0-10ers and it’s also very funny! In every conversation I’ve had about “The Brutalist” since seeing it this week, the other person has been surprised to hear me say that you don’t really feel the length. At least I didn’t. The pacing is crisp and you’re just fully immersed in the story and László Tóth’s journey from the jump. The intermission definitely helps too. That’s not to say everyone will love “The Brutalist” — as I was walking out, a woman behind me told someone, “I don’t know what to make of that” — but the similar factors that may have neutralized “Flower Moon’s” competitiveness probably won’t apply to it. I’m not going to toss in “Chuck” yet like many have done, at least not until it has a distributor. No shade, but this is not really the same case as “The Brutalist,” which had an international distributor and was awaiting a domestic one, and I would not be surprised if “Chuck” is an exception to the TIFF rule. Last week, we got news that Clint Eastwood‘s “Juror #2” will close out AFI Fest. He’s been more “miss” than “hit” lately with the Oscars, but is it the perfect time for another Clint comeback with the, uh, jury still out on the race?
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Christopher Rosen: I’m sticking with the idea that “Juror #2” is an “audience movie” not an “awards movie.” But this year, maybe that actually helps. There are no real comps between years — even though I could connect many of this year’s contenders to the same area code of contenders from years’ past — but there’s a bit of 2006 to these contenders. That was when “The Departed” broke out and ended up victorious largely because it was a goddamn blast. So while I’m pre-writing off “Juror #2” right now, what if it’s just the year’s most watchable and entertaining thriller? Couple that with its large ensemble cast, and maybe it could swoop in when the other contenders lack some passion. I could make the same argument for “Gladiator II,” which has the benefit right now of being a complete unknown, much like “A Complete Unknown,” another movie that hasn’t screened in a significant capacity as far as we know. It’s too early to plant a flag for a winner — unless, for me, it’s Mikey Madison in Best Actress because the “Anora” star should be undeniable — but I’ve got “Emilia Perez” in front. You’ve got “Anora” there. I could see either winning or not. For “Emilia Pérez,” it ticks off a lot of boxes for recent winners: the “cool” movie, the ensemble cast that everyone loves and wants to see succeed. But it’s also a Spanish-language musical and while I could compare it to “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “Parasite,” it’s the kind of movie that has never won Best Picture before. I’m not saying it can’t, but it would be unique. Where are you on that movie and what are your most win-competitive options right now if you had to pick three?
joyceeng: Hilarious you name-checked “Parasite” for “Emilia Pérez” since that’s the parallel everyone (Film Twitter) is drawing for “Anora” — from their Cannes wins to their second runner-up placements at TIFF to their top Telluride poll scores. I have “Anora” in first as the most likely to be nominated, not because I think it will win since I have no idea what’s winning, and “Emilia Pérez” right behind. They’re both atypical “Oscar films” but have been playing well across a broad swath of audiences and taste profiles. After that, I have “Conclave,” the most unserious papacy thriller you ever will see that could stand to be even more unserious in my book. It’s also been playing well and Focus is now foregoing a platform release on Nov. 1 for a wide release on Oct. 25. A sign of confidence or a way to get a handle on the inevitable discourse about the twist or both? That’s the top three in the odds in a different order. “Sing Sing” has dropped from first to fourth (I have “The Brutalist” in fourth), and while I think it can still get in, it really needs a robust second wind (the first wind was at last year’s TIFF) since it didn’t exactly light the world on fire this summer. A24 has also stocked up its slate the past few weeks with “Queer” and “The Brutalist.” Has “Queer” suffered the steepest fall from pre-screening expectations? It was in lots of people’s predictions/hopedictions before landing distribution, but after a decent but not rapturous reception in Venice, the buzz has been pretty quiet and the film sits in 26th place in the odds. That’s just one spot above “The Substance,” a body horror fave whose stans will advocate for it until the bitter end, but I can’t see the academy as a whole going for it.
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Christopher Rosen: I think “Queer” was a hopediction anyway, so I’m not surprised it has nosedived after the response. But that makes me wonder if this is where “Challengers” can come back. I can imagine your eye rolls right now, but let’s be real: “Challengers” was maybe the original “Anora” of the year, the movie people absolutely loved and lost their minds over. It has the “Parasite” vibes as well — the people who love it, loveeeee it. And while it’s not being seriously considered as all these shiny new movies start to screen, what if it does make its comeback? I think it’s competitive in several below-the-line spots (score, editing, cinematography), and could land in the screenplay race too. Could someone from its cast make it in at SAG? Maybe? It certainly wouldn’t surprise me, I guess. This is a homer suggestion because other than “Anora,” “Challengers” is my fave of the year — but if it got into this race after all, well, I’d probably do the Zendaya scream. Pause here for you to tell me my dreams of a “Challengers” second wind are going to slam right into the net.
joyceeng: The Oscar race is a best-of-five match. Before festivals, “Challengers” was down two sets and a break. Now, it’s back on serve in the third. It could definitely eke out the third in a long, tense tiebreak — maybe 16-14 — to stay alive and Arthur Ashe Stadium will erupt and we’ll all order another round of Honey Deuces. But can it carry that momentum into the fourth? I can see it getting broken at love its opening service game of the fourth like I’ve watched happen to many, many players trying to mount an 0-2 sets comeback, and that’ll be all she wrote. But if it does pull out the fourth, will it have the clutch gene and physical endurance for a one-set shootout in the fifth? If it doesn’t, bagel incoming.
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