Oscar odds update: Ariana Grande leaps into Best Supporting Actress top five for ‘Wicked’

Talk about popular! Buoyed by positive critics’ reviews and social media reactions, Ariana Grande (“Wicked”) has skyrocketed in Gold Derby’s Oscar odds for Best Supporting Actress in recent weeks. In fact, the pop star now places among the top five most likely supporting actress contenders to receive a nomination at the upcoming 2025 Oscars. Note that it’s still quite early in this awards season, and things could keep changing as our experts, editors, and users continue to update their predictions.

Grande (who is credited in the film by her birth name, Ariana Grande-Butera) plays a young Galinda Upland in Universal Pictures’ adaptation of the long-running Broadway stage musical. While attending Shiz University, Galinda takes a new student under her wing, the misunderstood Elphaba Thropp (Cynthia Erivo), and tries to teach her how to be less of an outcast. Jon M. Chu directed the movie from a screenplay by Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox.

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This would be Grande’s first major acting award, though she does have 15 Grammy nominations to her name, including three this year for “Yes, And?” (Best Dance Pop Recording), “Eternal Sunshine” (Best Pop Vocal Album), and “The Boy Is Mine – Remix” (Best Pop Duo/Group Performance). To date, the international superstar has won two Grammys for “Rain On Me” (Best Pop Duo/Group Performance) and “Sweetener” (Best Pop Vocal Album).

Grande currently places fifth in our Best Supporting Actress Oscar predictions with 10/1 odds. The other four like co-nominees, as of this writing, are Zoe Salda?a (“Emilia Pérez”) at 7/2 odds, Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) at 11/2 odds, Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”) at 6/1 odds, and Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”) at 9/1 odds.

Out of Gold Derby’s 33 Oscar Experts from major media outlets, the following 20 have Grande in their nomination rankings: Andrea Mandell (People Magazine), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby), Clayton Davis (Variety), Cole Jaeger (The Oscar Expert), Debra Birnbaum (Gold Derby), Erik Davis (Fandango), Gregory Ellwood (The Playlist), Jacqueline Coley (Rotten Tomatoes), Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Jenelle Riley (Variety), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Mark Johnson (The Contending), Matt Neglia (Next Best Picture), Michael Musto (Queerty), Nikki Novak (Fandango), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Shawn Edwards (WDAF-TV Fox), Susan King (Gold Derby), and Thelma Adams (Gold Derby).

As for our 12 website staff Editors, six of them believe Grande will garner a bid at the 97th Academy Awards: Christopher Rosen, Daniel Montgomery, Debra Birnbaum, Denton Davidson, Marcus James Dixon, and Rob Licuria.

Finally, nine out of our Top 24 Users, who did the best predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, are backing Grande: Aaron Christopher, Aleksandr Syman, AndrewMilito, Austinmh02, Bentis Komprakriev, Cordelia, GuitarLord25, TheGreatestPredictor, and hozier.

Have YOU made your Oscar predictions yet? It’s fun and easy — get started right now! The nominations will be announced on January 17, 2025 and the Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for Sunday, March 2 on ABC.

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