Oscar odds update: ‘Conclave’ now predicted to win Best Adapted Screenplay

The 2025 Oscars race for Best Adapted Screenplay has a new front-runner.

“Conclave,” the Edward Berger-directed film that’s written by Peter Straughan and based on the 2016 novel of the same name by Robert Harris, now holds the #1 position to win the adapted screenplay contest at Gold Derby. The movie just opened in U.S. theaters on Friday, October 25. Note that our Oscar odds will continue to change as our Experts, Editors and Users keep making or updating their predictions.

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The Focus Features drama stars Ralph Fiennes as Thomas Lawrence, a Cardinal who is tasked with overseeing the election of the late Pope’s successor. But he soon realizes that many of the candidates have personal scandals that could upend the church. Other cast members include Stanley Tucci as Cardinal Bellini, John Lithgow as Cardinal Tremblay, Sergio Castellitto as Cardinal Tedesco, and Isabella Rossellini as Sister Agnes.

Straughan received an Academy Award nomination for co-writing “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” (2011) with Bridget O’Connor; they both lost to “The Descendants” scribes Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash. Straughan also has an Emmy nomination to his name for writing “Wolf Hall” (2015); that award went to “Olive Kitteridge’s” Jane Anderson.

The current Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar lineup, in order of our predicted winners, is as follows:

1. “Conclave” — 19/5 odds
2. “Sing Sing” — 4/1 odds
3. “Nickel Boys” — 6/1 odds
4. “Emilia Perez” — 15/2 odds
5. “Dune: Part Two” — 17/2 odds

SEEIs ‘Conclave’ the key to Ralph Fiennes’s long overdue first Oscar?

Out of Gold Derby’s 32 Oscar Experts from major media outlets, the following 20 believe “Conclave” will win the screenplay race: Andrea Mandell (People Magazine), Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby), Clayton Davis (Variety), Cole Jaeger (The Oscar Expert), Debra Birnbaum (Gold Derby), Gregory Ellwood (The Playlist), Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Jenelle Riley (Variety), Joey Nolfi (Entertainment Weekly), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (CBR), Mark Johnson (The Contending), Matt Neglia (Next Best Picture), Michael Musto (Queerty), Peter Travers (ABC), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Susan King (Gold Derby), Tariq Khan (Gold Derby), Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), and Wilson Morales (BlackFilmandTV).

As for our 12 staff Editors, six of us believe Straughan will prevail at the 97th Academy Awards: Charles Bright, Christopher Rosen, Debra Birnbaum, Joyce Eng, Matt Noble, and Rob Licuria.

Finally, nine out of our Top 24 Users, who did the best predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, are backing a win for “Conclave”: Aleksandr Syman, BlakeB, Gabriel Ritter, TheGreatestPredictor, hotsizzle10, joshswatchlist, kamila, lady_bird, and tolisgkoufas.

Have YOU made your Oscar predictions yet? It’s fun and easy — get started right now! The nominations will be announced on January 17, 2025 and the awards ceremony is scheduled for Sunday, March 2 on ABC.

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